EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[L00b]

Accept the decision and move on?

As with every referendum outcome anywhere, yes.

You make it sound like any nation which is not subject to supra-national government exists in a state of perpetual chaos.

How so?

[unbeliever]

How so?

 

A vote to Brexit will create a Himalaya of uncertainties for businesses and individuals about (continuing) rights of residence and employment, employment and consumer rights arising from readily-repealable EU legislation, structural and private investment opportunities, projected income tax levels and much more.

 

Surely these uncertainties exist in any state not subject to supra-national government?

[L00b]

Surely these uncertainties exist in any state not subject to supra-national government?

Some of them certainly do, but in such states they represent the status quo, not a departure from the status quo which is what a Brexit would amount to. That's precisely why the uncertainty is increased, not merely preserved.

 

Some of them don't, e.g. the rights of residence and work in the UK for EU nationals, that arise solely out of the UK's membership of the EU. UK businesses employing skilled EU nationals should hope for best (negotiated terms preserving the status quo, e.g. with visas auto-granted to length of residence/employment in UK), but plan for worst (losing their skillsets entirely and having to train/replace nationals/others).

 

Or are you part of that subset of pro-Brexiters who believe that a Brexit will have no consequences at all on how businesses and people go about their daily lives in the UK right now (if not turn everything into a bed of roses)? Didn't have you as one of them.

Edited March 1, 2016 by L00b

[unbeliever]

They certainly do, but in such states they represent the status quo, not a departure from the status quo which is what a Brexit would amount to.

 

Or are you part of that subset of pro-Brexiters who believe that a Brexit will have no consequences at all on how businesses and people go about their daily lives in the UK right now?

 

It's a long transition period. At least 2 years. I'm not convinced we'd see anything serious.

Not all that different really to when the EU is considering a new federalising treaty .

[L00b]

It's a long transition period. At least 2 years. I'm not convinced we'd see anything serious.

It's 2 years during which what is currently a certainty under EU membership, will be up in the air being negotiated to eventually define what is certainty post-EU membership.

 

Accordingly it's 2 years during which decisions to invest, to train, to expand, to hire, to <etc.> may be postponed by some, or many, pending the outcome of the negotiations.

 

That has an economical (and, down the line, social) effect.

 

You're not convinced Brexit would have serious consequences. Others are (I'm not one of them btw: I'm just arguing that consequences to a Brexit are unavoidable, unintended and not, serious and not, and many of them interrelated - precisely because the EU pervades so many aspects of daily life to a small or large extent).

 

That is uncertainty defined, right there

Edited March 1, 2016 by L00b

[unbeliever]

It's 2 years during which what is currently a certainty under EU membership, will be up in the air being negotiated to eventually define what is certainty post-EU membership.

 

Accordingly it's 2 years during which decisions to invest, to train, to expand, to hire, to <etc.> may be postponed by some, or many, pending the outcome of the negotiations.

 

That has an economical (and, down the line, social) effect.

 

You're not convinced Brexit would have serious consequences. Others are (I'm not one of them btw: I'm just arguing that consequences to a Brexit are unavoidable, unintended and not, serious and not, and many of them interrelated - precisely because the EU pervades so many aspects of daily life to a small or large extent).

 

That is uncertainty defined, right there

 

 

Is it substantially different to when a new treaty is being considered by the EU, expanding their control to new areas previously reserved to the states?

There have been 5 major treaties expanding the power of the European government since the last referendum.

[L00b]

Is it substantially different to when a new treaty is being considered by the EU, expanding their control to new areas previously reserved to the states?

Yes, because the effect of a new Treaty rarely if ever impacts the daily life of Joe Average with immediacy. New Treaties build on the decades-old acquis communautaire, they effectively formalise evolving EU case law and practice into statutory form every now and then.

 

The issue with Brexit would be to strip some or all of the acquis communautaire from UK statutes altogether, and rather quickly (by legislative timescales).

 

I've already given some practical examples in this or another thread recently, since I deal with European IP and the relevant EU directives and EU trademark and design registration system on a daily basis, and the practical problems that would arise in that specific context out of a Brexit are numerous and non-trivial. To begin with, the potential loss of trademark rights in the UK for anyone or any company, British and not, who owns a community trademark and/or design currently. And if you think trademark rights are not important to a business, in the 5th-ranked global economy...

 

Now bear in mind that's just for a very niche and highly-specialised sector of legal services.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean that the UK would discard the better bits of the acquis, mind. But what are these better bits, to a UK outside the EU? And who will influence and/or decide what to keep and what to strip? All up in the air indeed.

[Brian Equato]

Yes, because the effect of a new Treaty rarely if ever impacts the daily life of Joe Average with immediacy. New Treaties build on the decades-old acquis communautaire, they effectively formalise evolving EU case law and practice into statutory form every now and then.

 

The issue with Brexit would be to strip some or all of the acquis communautaire from UK statutes altogether, and rather quickly (by legislative timescales).

 

I've already given some practical examples in this or another thread recently, since I deal with European IP and the relevant EU directives and EU trademark and design registration system on a daily basis, and the practical problems that would arise in that specific context out of a Brexit are numerous and non-trivial. To begin with, the potential loss of trademark rights in the UK for anyone or any company, British and not, who owns a community trademark and/or design currently. And if you think trademark rights are not important to a business, in the 5th-ranked global economy...

 

Now bear in mind that's just for a very niche and highly-specialised sector of legal services.

 

That doesn't necessarily mean that the UK would discard the better bits of the acquis, mind. But what are these better bits, to a UK outside the EU? And who will influence and/or decide what to keep and what to strip? All up in the air indeed.

 

No doubt the difficulty of unpicking ourselves from many aspects of EU membership would be parroted by all pro EU factions including presumably Nicola Sturgeon but she still seems keen on the vastly more difficult and damaging task of unpicking Scotland from the rest of the UK if we (England) dare to vote out.

[bantycock]

It's time things changed now everyone I speak to wants to leave the EU myself included Britain dropped screaming to its knees during the Thatcher regime and now the parasites have come over to finish the job page hall is only the beginning in Sheffield Eastwood in Rotherham no end to this European tide of polution

[I1L2T3]

No doubt the difficulty of unpicking ourselves from many aspects of EU membership would be parroted by all pro EU factions including presumably Nicola Sturgeon but she still seems keen on the vastly more difficult and damaging task of unpicking Scotland from the rest of the UK if we (England) dare to vote out.

 

People will say it because it is going to be difficult. The point loob is making is there is no escape from that difficulty if we choose to leave.

 

Our whole relationship with the EU would be under review, and so would the many thousands of pieces of legislation that underpin that relatiobship. Uncertainty is a given. The two years negotiating period would really just get the headline stuff out the way. We'd have many years of fallout after that with everything maybe not completed until 2025.

 

This isn't scaremongering. It's the simple truth about what we face. Don't misunderstand though. These are not reasons to stay necessarily but it's important to know that day one after a vote for Brexit does not immediately see us in a land of milk and honey. It's day one of a slog that could last the best part of a decade. And it's a slog that risks delivering very little of what people want right now.