EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[unbeliever]

Given that the example basis was Norway, Iceland (who has now committed to re-integrating the EU...LOL!) and Switzerland, thus premising in your post above that the UK becomes an EFTA member (meaning freedom movement preserved for EU nationals and the EU telling the UK how it's going to go down with EU trade at all times - without the UK getting any say in it at all ), no, no trouble at all.

 

Glad we cleared that up indeed

 

So the EU's trade barriers don't limit our ability to trade with the rest of the world (outside EFTA), but being outside the EU would limit our ability to trade with them. How does that work? Have I missed something?

[L00b]

So the EU's trade barriers don't limit our ability to trade with the rest of the world (outside EFTA), but being outside the EU would limit our ability to trade with them. How does that work? Have I missed something?

That's because you're conflating the UK's 'complete' freedom of trading intra-EU (achieved through EU membership) to the UK's 'less-free' freedom of trading outside the EU, as an EU member state (because outside EU trade partners are not subject to EU common market rules, they have their own) and not (if ithe UK stood all alone and had to negotiate tariffs and trade agreements on its lonesome self without being an influential member of the 1st economic club in the world).

 

Nowhere have I said or claimed that one was equal to the other, and what you are indeed missing are the EU's multitude of trading agreements with "the rest of the world", under which the UK, as an EU member, has been trading relatively freely (less than with fellow EU member states, more than as a standalone country), but the scope of which and the trade facilitation/advantages of which we will (not 'would', definitely will) automatically lose with a Brexit.

Edited May 11, 2016 by L00b

[tzijlstra]

Would you like to talk to me instead?

 

I know we disagree, often annoy each other, but I'm not Sutty.

 

What do you think of my point to L00b that there are 2 propositions in conflict.

1. EU tariffs are not inhibiting UK trade with the rest of the world

2. Being outside the single market (and therefore potentially subject to those tariffs) would adversely impact UK trade with the EU.

 

They are in conflict because you assume 2. will happen somehow. So do tell me which countries in the world do not have trade tariffs and how will the UK find them as willing trade partners? I also will repeat my point, the UK has a GDP of less than 3 billion, the EU without the UK has a GDP of over 13 billion. Which party is in a stronger negotiating position?

 

So are you not going loose anything if we leave?

 

I will lose* about the same as you would lose. I live in the same country as you do. That is probably not entirely correct as our household probably earns a multiple of yours, but for the sake of argument that is about it, I am still to understand why you think I will be affected personally.

[unbeliever]

They are in conflict because you assume 2. will happen somehow. So do tell me which countries in the world do not have trade tariffs and how will the UK find them as willing trade partners? I also will repeat my point, the UK has a GDP of less than 3 billion, the EU without the UK has a GDP of over 13 billion. Which party is in a stronger negotiating position?

 

 

I think you meant trillion rather than billion there, but I take your point.

You don't think that the potential loss of trade will worry the EU. I would have thought that it would at least worry the Germans and they are rather influential.

[web1]

The average man on the street, who couldn't care less about gdp, tariffs etc will vote out.

I was having a pint and a game of snooker with my dad last week, and he said, and I quote "I don't give a toss about politics but I'm voting out cos im sick of this country and the way it's run!"

I tried to explain that he needs to vote locally etc but my dad is an old fashioned type, who thinks that all politicians are cut from the same cloth,and this is what the in party have to fight against.

I think the vote results so far are telling in itself.

[unbeliever]

That's because you're conflating the UK's 'complete' freedom of trading intra-EU (achieved through EU membership) to the UK's 'less-free' freedom of trading outside the EU, as an EU member state (because outside EU trade partners are not subject to EU common market rules, they have their own) and not (if ithe UK stood all alone and had to negotiate tariffs and trade agreements on its lonesome self without being an influential member of the 1st economic club in the world).

 

Nowhere have I said or claimed that one was equal to the other, and what you are indeed missing are the EU's multitude of trading agreements with "the rest of the world", under which the UK, as an EU member, has been trading relatively freely (less than with fellow EU member states, more than as a standalone country), but the scope of which and the trade facilitation/advantages of which we will (not 'would', definitely will) automatically lose with a Brexit.

 

 

So you're assuming that the UK's trade arrangements with the rest of the world will be inferior to those arrangements that the EU has.

[NigelFargate]

 

 

 

That is probably not entirely correct as our household probably earns a multiple of yours, but for the sake of argument that is about it, .

 

How do you know what the poster's household income is? Bragging about your income is hardly a good debating point.

[sutty27]

I will lose* about the same as you would lose.

 

I won't loose anything, leaving means I will be better off, how much will you loose.

[L00b]

You don't think that the potential loss of trade will worry the EU. I would have thought that it would at least worry the Germans and they are rather influential.

The Germans are long-termers, they're busy eyeing China, India and Brazil as their biggest potential automotive markets, and each one of these alone will dwarf the UK inside less than a decade.

 

They're so "worried" they bought the London Stock Exchange t'other week: guess where the desks and the jobs will be moving in case of a Brexit vote?

 

---------- Post added 11-05-2016 at 18:54 ----------

 

So you're assuming that the UK's trade arrangements with the rest of the world will be inferior to those arrangements that the EU has.

Yes.

 

Because the UK is the 5th or 6th global economy with 65 million souls, and Germany is above in 4th or 5th (if not 3rd), France just below the UK in 6th or 7th, with Italy and a few more EU/EFTA members in the top 20, and they all run a market of 400millions excluding the UK's 65m.

 

It's simple numbers. The EU has more, of everything, that the outsiders 'that matter' (US, KR, JP, BRICs, AU, CA <etc>) want, and the UK hasn't got much that the EU can't do without or replace from another source. The UK outside the EU means more expensive UK goods and services to EU customers, even without any tariffs, simply due to the admin overhead. Do you think the EU competition to UK suppliers isn't going to capitalise on that across all goods and service sectors?

Edited May 11, 2016 by L00b

[NigelFargate]

The Germans are long-termers, they're busy eyeing China, India and Brazil as their biggest potential automotive markets, and each one of these alone will dwarf the UK inside less than a decade.

 

They're so "worried" they bought the London Stock Exchange t'other week: guess where the desks and the jobs will be moving in case of a Brexit vote?

 

The same prediction about the days of London as a global financial centre being numbered were also made at the time the UK rejected the single European currency project. In fact, London's position in this regard strengthened, not weakened, after the introduction of the euro.