panzer1 Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 This thread would appear to sum up the 3 major points that will effect the outcome of the referendum. 1. Most people be they brexiteers or remainers that made their minds up at the start of this process will not be swayed by the arguments of the opposite side. Each side think they own the correct view and it usually declines into insulting each other's IQ and name calling when the other party cannot be swayed to change. 2. The result will be decided by turnout and its demographic make up with some predicting as low as 50 per cent and some as high as the 80s similar to the Scottish referendum. The demographics of the turnout are important with all pollsters stating the older generations ( predominantly exit by most polls ) are more likely to turn out and vote than the younger ( predominantly remainers ) generation that are less likely to turn out and vote. These demographics of voting intentions and commitment to vote are constantly in the polls. 3. If the polls are to be believed the outcome of this referendum could be decided by as few as thousands or hundreds of thousands of votes so the undecided voters that can be swayed by either side are very important. Again these people who can be swayed either way are considered to feel less strongly about the matter so wether they will actually turn out and vote remains to be seen. There is some pundits now quoting " election fatigue" in that this campaign has been running for weeks and has weeks to go and that interest is starting to wane but to which camp this lack of interest will benefit is unknown. In the elections last week which in most places consisted of voting for local councils,PCCs and the odd by election turnout was low with some cases less than 50 per cent and the average only being in the 60s. So in elections where local matters should be to the fore the electorate was complacent. Doing a poll over the phone or via the Internet is not like actually getting off your backside and going to vote. In the Scottish referendum you would expect such an important vote would get nearly a hundred per cent turn out and although it was a high turn out almost one in five failed to vote. Whatever the result, if it is as near as predicted whichever side wins you will have a very large number of people numbering millions who will be left disgruntled. The next election may then throw up some interesting manifestos with parties promising to return if we left or leave if we stay. Even though I am for leaving I will say that I will be glad when it is all over as I think the time scale has been way too long and I now just want the matter resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewalk Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 EDIT: Putting aside the fact that they already do, to the tune of a few hundreds a year at least, despite the fencing, dogs, x-rays, patrols, etc, etc. If I am correct about France in case of a Brexit, yes, they could simply buy a ferry or Chunnel passenger ticket and arrive in Dover or Folkestone. Then they'd become our problem. Asylum claims, processing time and costs, including housing/feeding in the meantime, then possibly court case and appeals, eventually eviction and costs, <etc.> Juicy extra public contract for G4S, that Makes the new extra-tall and extra-sharp fencing in Coquelles rather cheap by the metre, no? BREXIters hear what they want to hear and if a UKIP politician tells them that there will be no illegal immigrant camps on UK soil they believe them. President Hollande as well as the Nord Pas de Calais authorities have all stated that they will not police UK borders if we vote to leave the EU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Sorry, you are both naive, there is a HUGE illegal immigrant population in the UK, hidden in garden-sheds, garages, attics and so on.I'm neither unaware of, nor blind to, the estimated 750,000 illegals in the UK. I was just replying to Alan Hartley in the context which he posited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 I'm neither unaware of, nor blind to, the estimated 750,000 illegals in the UK. I was just replying to Alan Hartley in the context which he posited Sorry L00b, didn't mean to come across as condescending. It is just that this 'Better Borders NOW' argument fails in practically every way you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sutty27 Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 BREXIters hear what they want to hear and if a UKIP politician tells them that there will be no illegal immigrant camps on UK soil they believe them. President Hollande as well as the Nord Pas de Calais authorities have all stated that they will not police UK borders if we vote to leave the EU There can only be illegal immigrant camps on UK soil if our elected government allows them, Cameron threatened to allow them if we vote leave, I don't and will never succumb to blackmail, therefore his threat has no bearing on how I will vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 There can only be illegal immigrant camps on UK soil if our elected government allows them, Cameron threatened to allow them if we vote leave, I don't and will never succumb to blackmail, therefore his threat has no bearing on how I will vote.Can we have a source for that rather tall claim, sutty? If he did threaten to allow camps as retribution for a Brexit vote, i.e. outright blackmail, fair enough, I can understand your outrage. But if he just drew attention to the likelihood of camps sprouting up following a Brexit (as I seem to recall that he did, and just as I did myself yesterday in the above posts), then your post is fairly disingenuous, don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 According to your link, the Leave campaign are so outraged that Farage is representing them they are considering legal action. Even though this referendum wouldn't be happening if it wasn't for Nigel Farage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeFrank Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 BREXIters hear what they want to hear and if a UKIP politician tells them that there will be no illegal immigrant camps on UK soil they believe them. President Hollande as well as the Nord Pas de Calais authorities have all stated that they will not police UK borders if we vote to leave the EU That will just mean delays for the French and others coming here. It will effect their business greatly. Its just a bluff. I can't see many dinghies making it across the Channel either. ---------- Post added 13-05-2016 at 16:05 ---------- According to your link, the Leave campaign are so outraged that Farage is representing them they are considering legal action. They don't want to see Cameron humiliated that's why. If its another Tory they'll not be as critical of Cameron personally. Plus it will be the best publicity for UKIP one could wish for. It must be annoying for Farage to be excluded from the spotlight when he is the one person most deserving of being heard. The debate is about Europe, UKIP won the European elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeffrey Shaw Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 The debate is about Europe, UKIP won the European elections. It's not about "Europe". Nobody in UKIP objects to Europe. But it is about the EU and whether the UK should be run by- and subjugated to- the EU. I say "No". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 That will just mean delays for the French and others coming here.Not really: all it would do is displace the existing UK border checks from France to the UK. Since the checks would be the same, faster boarding in France, slower arrival in the UK. No change. It will effect their business greatly.How so? See above. Its just a bluff.Are you a betting man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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