EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[L00b]

Thinking it will be undone in the next 2 years is a bizarre stance.

2 years is the timescale posited by Article 50 TFEU, personally I doubt that it would take only 2 years.

 

Then again, it wouldn't take Parliament much at all to repeal EU-based Acts and SIs. Just a vote for each.

 

The timescale matters far less than the effect. Do you care to comment about the effect?

Loob, what's your take on George Monbiot's logic? That he hates the EU but wants to remain in it?

He comes from the same self-serving, self-publicizing mould as Mason, i.e. much of what he says is deeply biased and/or logically-flawed, and so should be taken with a pinch shovel of salt...but, as was the case with Mason, that doesn't stop me from being in general agreement with the 'sum total' of his position (his 'logic' as you say: the EU has flaws and works sub-optimally in several respects, but is the lesser evil relative to nationalism tainted by populist influences).

 

My stance is that a system is easier to fix from within than from without, especially when those who would fix it wield a lot more influence relative to those who wouldn't. The UK arguably wields as much influence as France, and the UK and France are juniors to Germany only in the EU political pecking order (and I daresay that top position is likely to become very fragile soon enough, after Merkel's coalition takes a couple of black eyes and loses half its teeth at the next German GE). If we get out, then we lose all influence about where the EU goes and how it goes there. That will have ramifications on trade, both at the time of negotiating the exit and at any time after that. If we want back in at some stage, then that will be on condition of adopting the Euro and without any rebate, opt-out or permanent excuse out of the 'ever closer union'.

Edited May 18, 2016 by L00b

[m0cbt]

Have a butchers at this

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tg4goZxXRZk

[Tomjames]

To those worried about trade. Switzerland do 40 trillion in trade deals and the EU does 7 trillion. We can negotiate with the EU as a trading bloc and any country in the world. Businesses make trade not politicians.

[L00b]

Have a butchers at this

Comedy value: 7 (I'm afraid the top end of the scale is reserved for Nigel and Boris )

Informative value: 0

 

The ESM is a €-only bailout mechanism.

 

The UK has never been in it, nor concerned by it.

 

So long as the UK stays out of the € ("forever and more" is my take on that), the UK will never be in it, nor concerned by it.

 

I guess even you can therefore understand the relevance of the ESM and its practice to date, to the referendum and the matter of Brexiting or not: less than zero.

[Tomjames]

Something no one has mentioned yet...whichever way the vote goes there are going to be roughly half of the population highly disgruntled and angry. It could cause serious upset in the UK and politicians will have to work hard to mend fences.

 

If there's 1 or 2 points in it, could that trigger a second referendum?

[m0cbt]

Comedy value: 7 (I'm afraid the top end of the scale is reserved for Nigel and Boris )

Informative value: 0

 

The ESM is a €-only bailout mechanism.

 

The UK has never been in it, nor concerned by it.

 

So long as the UK stays out of the € ("forever and more" is my take on that), the UK will never be in it, nor concerned by it.

 

I guess even you can therefore understand the relevance of the ESM and its practice to date, to the referendum and the matter of Brexiting or not: less than zero.

 

Not in it now but will be if we vote to remain.I always smile when the remain quote the eu as it is now but never quote how it will be with full intergration

[JFKvsNixon]

If there's 1 or 2 points in it, could that trigger a second referendum?

 

I think that a second referendum would only happen if the circumstances change.

 

For example, if we vote to leave and then renegotiate our relationship with the EU and then put that out for the vote, or if we vote to stay and the EU makes changes that would push us towards much closer integration.

[L00b]

Not in it now but will be if we vote to remain.I always smile when the remain quote the eu as it is now but never quote how it will be with full intergration

How is the UK going to be in the € (and therefore the ESM) if the electorate votes to remain?

 

The UK negotiated an opt-out from the part of the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 that would have required it to adopt the common currency, and the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government elected in May 2010 pledged not to adopt the euro as its currency for the lifetime of the parliament. Polls show that the majority of British people are against adopting the euro, and have consistently done so for over a decade, and still now.

 

Never going to happen. Brits don't want it, businesses don't want it, finance markets don't want it <etc.>

 

Particularly now that the €/non-€ schism has been formalised by Cameron's renegotiation taking the UK out of 'ever closer union' (for which a handful of further non-€ EU member states are now truly grateful): the UK is now firmly out of the full integration game. So there's nothing to "quote how it will be with full integration".

 

Again, never going to happen. There would be another referendum, as posited by JFK above.

 

Try something else as fearmongering basis, as the "UK adopts €" really doesn't cut it.

Edited May 18, 2016 by L00b

[Tomjames]

I think that a second referendum would only happen if the circumstances change.

 

For example, if we vote to leave and then renegotiate our relationship with the EU and then put that out for the vote, or if we vote to stay and the EU makes changes that would push us towards much closer integration.

 

We should have a vote every 5 years. Asking people to vote every 40 years is much harder.

[JFKvsNixon]

The most fundamental problem with that, as clearly manifested by the state of the campaign to date, is that it keeps the debate firmly entrenched at the (rethorical and populist) noddy end of the spectrum, and continues to impede an objective assessment of pros an cons for both sides.

 

The UK is getting to be a laughing stock and now damaging its reputation through it. I'm increasingly seeing it in international MSM (of repute, mostly business-focused print weeklies) and more anecdotally through chit-chat with foreign associates. Boris' recent Godwinism is seriously ricocheting within top level political circles globally, and will have some consequences.

 

Tim Martin articulates the Leave case a lot better than Boris and Farage could ever dream of. I agree with some of his arguments (that go the heart of what needs addressing and maybe reforming in the EU), I disagree with most of his arguments (that are unsurprisingly self-serving to his business and therefore his back pocket)...but when was the last time a Brexiter on here commented about what Tim Martin said, rather than post a snippet about Nigel's latest clowning at the European parliament or Boris' latest brainfart?

 

It seems to me that many Brexiters aren't voting on what our relationship with the EU currently is, they're voting on what they're scared the EU might morph in to.

 

---------- Post added 18-05-2016 at 12:39 ----------

 

We should have a vote every 5 years. Asking people to vote every 40 years is much harder.

 

Let me guess, you think that we should vote every 5 years until we vote to leave?