EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[panzer1]

The headteacher was hardly going to say it was a bad thing on camera, they would sack him.

 

---------- Post added 26-05-2016 at 18:22 ----------

 

Lord Blunkett used to live in hands worth but disappeared quickly when he stopped being an MP and became a Lord.

[Tomjames]

A revision to a forecast by .2 % means the forecast of 2.4% was mostly right bar ten percent, pretty accurate I'd say. When making claims about forecasts it helps to understand the methods used. They might not be 100% accurate, but they generally hit the mark when it comes to the direction of the economy.

 

As for rich and poor, I'd love a source for that Sutty.

 

Sorry but if you look at what he said about public borrowing and deficit it's wrong by more than a couple of points lol

 

---------- Post added 26-05-2016 at 18:28 ----------

 

If forecasters are so good why didn't they forecast the global crisis and prevented it?

[unbeliever]

Sense? By going in against every single economic body's assessment of the situation, including the OFS?

 

I've heard a lot of quotes along the lines that the UK "could" lose a total of a couple of % in GDP growth over several years. People like quoting the worst case.

Do you have any references where there is an unqualified prediction of lower growth?

 

Obviously the first thing that will happen will be an £8-10bn boost to the UK economy as a result of ending payments to (and of course from) the EU. That ought to produce an instant 0.5-0.6% increase in UK GDP.

 

How much of this predicted reduction in GDP growth is real reduction per capita, and how much is down to the population growing more slowly on account of an anticipated reduction in immigration?

Edited May 26, 2016 by unbeliever

[L00b]

I've heard a lot of quotes along the lines that the UK "could" lose a total of a couple of % in GDP growth over several years. People like quoting the worst case.

Do you have any references where there is an unqualified prediction of lower growth?

 

Obviously the first thing that will happen will be an £8-10bn boost to the UK economy as a result of ending payments to (and of course from) the EU. That ought to produce an instant 0.5-0.6% increase in UK GDP.

 

How much of this predicted reduction in GDP growth is real reduction per capita, and how much is down to the population growing more slowly on account of an anticipated reduction in immigration?

That's not going to happen until the negotiations are completed, 2 to 5 years from the referendum.

 

In the meantime, the UK will technically still be an EU member state and so have to pay its stipend.

 

So you might want to reconsider your questions/points in view of same.

 

I don't get how and why Brexiters got this notion of 'vote Brexit on 24th = out of EU on 25th'?

Edited May 26, 2016 by L00b

[unbeliever]

That's not going to happen until the negotiations are completed, 2 to 5 years from the referendum.

 

In the meantime, the UK will technically still be an EU member state and so have to pay its stipend.

 

So you might want to reconsider your questions/points in view of same.

 

Yes. The first thing to happen following Brexit. Not the first thing following the vote. Sorry if that was unclear. I don't see how though.

[L00b]

Yes. The first thing to happen following Brexit. Not the first thing following the vote. Sorry if that was unclear. I don't see how though.

The consequences of a Brexit vote upon the economy will be quasi-immediate, both the good ones and the bad ones. The only immediately good consequence I can think of is the end of uncertainty. As for the bad ones, GDP will take a big short-term hit from cancelled investments, divestments, capital transfers/flight, run on pound, hq/warehouse/jobs relocations, (etc) that much of the private sector (especially foreign) has been planning for.

 

You £10bn saving will only come after another £20bn (2 years) to £50bn (5 years) expenditure during the sunrise period between the referendum and the actual Brexit.

Edited May 26, 2016 by L00b

[unbeliever]

The consequences of a Brexit vote upon the economy will be quasi-immediate, both the good ones and the bad ones. The only immediately good consequence I can think of is the end of uncertainty. As for the bad ones, GDP will take an immediate hit from cancelled investments, divestments, capital transfers/flight, run on pound (etc).

 

You £10bn saving will only come after another £20bn (2 years) to £50bn (5 years) expenditure during the sunrise period between the referendum and the actual Brexit.

 

Really. Who's said they're leaving, or not coming?

 

How much of this predicted reduction in GDP growth is real reduction per capita, and how much is down to the population growing more slowly on account of an anticipated reduction in immigration?

[panzer1]

Not everything is about money.

[unbeliever]

Not everything is about money.

 

Couldn't agree more.

[L00b]

Really. Who's said they're leaving, or not coming?

Read the FT. The 5 largest US banks, for starters.

 

Anecdotally, 7 of our largest SME-type UK clients (combined t/o about £250m) have relocations planned (meaning redundancies in UK) and, from what I'm hearing in my profession at partner level, half of the British IP profession intend to follow me (meaning, you guessed it, more redundancies in the UK).

 

Oh well...omlet, eggs and all that?

How much of this predicted reduction in GDP growth is real reduction per capita, and how much is down to the population growing more slowly on account of an anticipated reduction in immigration?

Again, EU immigration will not reduce until after the actual Brexit (*if* it does at all: remember our discussions about maintaining even relatively free access to the Single Market post-Brexit).

 

EDIT: of course it's not just about money. But you can't live without. Just ask Greece. And I don't need to remind you how in hock to international money markets the UK still is, do I?

Edited May 26, 2016 by L00b