EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[unbeliever]

We won't stop trading with it .... but at what cost. In two years time there will be two options:

- one will keep the free market but this will involve free movement (ala Norway and Switzerland) so no different to now but we would have to accept something that we will have no say on

- or it will involve trade tariffs (as per the rest of the world) This will also involves years of negotiation on individual trade agreements (anything up to 10 years per agreement seems to be the norm) with the EU for different products. Also, if the latter, combined with the instability of the currency, will mean increased prices. Until these agreements are in place, there will be no trade.

 

All the stories you are talking about are simply the knock on effect of increased prices (ie higher inflation resulting in higher interest rates etc).

 

So a question, quite simply they are the options that will be available. Which one would you choose?

 

What trade tariffs are permitted under WTO rules?

Not many as I understand it.

Now in 1972 there were a lot of trade tariffs. So it probably made sense then.

Not now.

 

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/agrm2_e.htm

 

I think the worst we might be hit with would be a 10% tariff on cars and such. But of course the Germans have already said they are very much against such a tariff as they sell us a lot of cars and it would hurt them a lot more than us.

[L00b]

What trade tariffs are permitted under WTO rules?

Plenty, particularly since all non-tariff barriers in the Agro domain had to be converted into calculated-equivalent tariffs ('tariffication') by 2003 (IIRC).

 

Fill your boots:

Get Tariff Data

 

Data on WTO members' tariffs are of two types:

• Bound rates (the ceiling rates as listed in members’ “schedules” or lists of commitments)

• Applied rates (the rates members currently charge, which can be lower than the bound rates).

 

WTO tariff databases contain both bound and applied rates. Options for accessing and searching the databases can be found here.

 

See also:

> Goods schedules gateway

> Current situation of goods schedules

> The “Goods schedules and tariff data” section on each member's page

They apply to both goods and services.

 

The summary for the state of play in 2015 (latest available) is at this page, with linked data files and tables.

I think the worst we might be hit with would be a 10% tariff on cars and such. But of course the Germans have already said they are very much against such a tariff as they sell us a lot of cars and it would hurt them a lot more than us.

The Germans won't have a choice. But their intentions may translate into faster-than-expected post-Brexit negotiations with Germany specifically. Edited May 27, 2016 by L00b

[Quik]

To any Brexiter who automatically defaults to the 'WTO Rules, WTO Rules' mantra when faced with this argument, allow me to link this, by WTO boss Roberto Azevêdo

And to any Brexiter tempted to wavy-hand it away with the usual and intellectually-dishonest "it's fearmongering", I'll just reply pre-emptively that, regrettably, denial can't be treated through t'Internet

 

The WTO is another bunch of unelected bearaucrats telling sovereign nations what they can and can't do and could be usefully hoofed into the long grass with the EU.

[L00b]

The WTO is another bunch of unelected bearaucrats telling sovereign nations what they can and can't do and could be usefully hoofed into the long grass with the EU.

PMSL! :hihi:

 

The WTO has no executive power, it doesn't set or remove or enforce the tariffs, it has no enforceable jurisdiction: all it does is help coordinate international efforts to smooth international trade through multinational and supranational trade agreements

 

It has zero skin in the EU referendum game or in the UK's economy

[Quik]

PMSL! :hihi:

 

The WTO has no executive power, it doesn't set or remove or enforce the tariffs, it has no enforceable jurisdiction: all it does is help coordinate international efforts to smooth international trade through multinational and supranational trade agreements

 

It has zero skin in the EU referendum game or in the UK's economy

 

Why then is its leader telling us we can't set our own tarrifs (or none) then as per your post above?

[L00b]

Why then is its leader telling us we can't set our own tarrifs (or none) then as per your post above?

He's not "telling the UK that the UK can't set its own tariffs", he's commenting on the legal consequences for the UK under the trade agreements which it entered into as an EU member state, if the UK should quit the EU (because the UK will automatically cease to be a party to these agreements, the moment it ceases to be an EU member state).

 

Same effect under e.g. the Trademarks and Designs Directives: the moment the UK ceases to be an EU member state, any existing EU trademark or Community design will cease to apply to the UK, and anyone in the UK or overseas holding an EU trademark or a Community design will not be able to enforce them against an infringer in the UK. Ooops. Bummer for British rights holders with a domestic market to protect.

 

If the UK should set its own tariffs unilaterally, it's not the WTO who will drag it kicking and screaming before the Courts, it's all of the countries on the receiving end of the tariffs. If the UK should not set any tariffs, then imagine the recent Chinese steel issue, extended to the entire width and breadth of the national economy.

 

There's nothing scaremongering or fearmongering about any of this, it's simply the automatic and unavoidable legal consequences of Brexiting, and the reason why the UK will have to negotiate new agreements. You can't simply wish these consequences away, I'm afraid.

Edited May 27, 2016 by L00b

[Quik]

He's not "telling the UK that the UK can't set its own tariffs", he's commenting on the legal consequences for the UK under the trade agreements which it entered into as an EU member state, if the UK should quit the EU (because the UK will automatically cease to be a party to these agreements, the moment it ceases to be an EU member state).

 

Same effect under e.g. the Trademarks and Designs Directives: the moment the UK ceases to be an EU member state, any existing EU trademark or Community design will cease to apply to the UK, and anyone in the UK or overseas holding an EU trademark or a Community design will not be able to enforce them against an infringer in the UK. Ooops. Bummer for British rights holders with a domestic market to protect.

 

If the UK should set its own tariffs unilaterally, it's not the WTO who will drag it kicking and screaming before the Courts, it's all of the countries on the receiving end of the tariffs. If the UK should not set any tariffs, then imagine the recent Chinese steel issue, extended to the entire width and breadth of the national economy.

 

There's nothing scaremongering or fearmongering about any of this, it's simply the automatic and unavoidable legal consequences of Brexiting, and the reason why the UK will have to negotiate new agreements. You can't simply wish these consequences away, I'm afraid.

Read what you quoted him saying above. Thats exactly what he's saying.

 

Either the EU negotiated rules apply or they don't. If they do we carry on as now. If not then we have no agreements or responsibilities to do diddly squat and we set tarrifs or none as we feel is in our best interests. What hes trying to claim is the agreements in our interests will no longer be valid but the commitments agaibst our interests will. Sorry you can't have both. It's scaremongering rubbish.

[panzer1]

There has now been over 3100 posts on this thread, a lot where opposing factions have quoted numbers, statistics, dire threats, doomsday and The garden of Eden.

Can I just ask is there any one person that started with a view of voting in/out that has now changed that view due to any of the above facts, figures etc. Just curious.

Personally I read all the very bad things that might happen if we Brexit and I am still voting out so wondered if any person had been persuaded to change.

[spilldig]

No, It's changed nothing for me, and like you I will be voting out.

[sutty27]

There has now been over 3100 posts on this thread, a lot where opposing factions have quoted numbers, statistics, dire threats, doomsday and The garden of Eden.

Can I just ask is there any one person that started with a view of voting in/out that has now changed that view due to any of the above facts, figures etc. Just curious.

Personally I read all the very bad things that might happen if we Brexit and I am still voting out so wondered if any person had been persuaded to change.

 

Yes, I was going to vote in but L00b as convinced me that out is the way to go.