EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[L00b]

Apart from anything else, the UK people will not consent to a Brexit deal which involves unlimited free movement and it's not terribly popular in Germany and France either.

 

The Swiss just rejected unlimited free movement in a referendum. We're yet to see the fall-out from this.

The Swiss have the lower hand in the game. For the same reasons I gave earlier in the page.

 

This article explains how the Swiss situation is a useful pawn (to the EU) in the EU/UK renegotiation/Referendum game and why they will eventually give in to free movement, and by extension why the UK also would in post-Brexit negotiations.

 

The EU is rock solid on freedom of movement, it's a my way or the highway topic. That's not me endorsing the policy, it's just observing a factual situation.

 

I'm a cynical pragmatist, unbeliever. I don't do ideology or vapourware politics.

Edited June 1, 2016 by L00b

[unbeliever]

The Swiss have the lower hand in the game. For the same reasons I gave earlier in the page.

 

This article explains how the Swiss situation is a useful pawn (to the EU) in the EU/UK renegotiation/Referendum game and why they will eventually give in to free movement, and by extension why the UK also would in post-Brexit negotiations.

 

The EU is rock solid on freedom of movement, it's a my way or the highway topic. That's not me endorsing the policy, it's just observing a factual situation.

 

63% of Switzerland's trade is with the EU. So they're naturally in a slightly weaker bargaining position.

If the EU overrides the Swiss people on this matter, it doesn't say much about the status of democracy in the EU.

 

If it comes to it the EU is risking about €110bn of trade by holding ground against the Swiss people. With the UK people it would be 5 times as much. Not so easy to just fob us off.

Edited June 1, 2016 by unbeliever

[mossdog]

The only sensible thing in that article is suggesting we don't need governments to trade.

It's one dimensional shoddy journalism otherwise.

........so what are the one dimensional shoddy parts of the article you disagree with?

[L00b]

63% of Switzerland's trade is with the EU. So they're naturally in a slightly weaker bargaining position.

Much of that trade is EU-inward financial services via London, if I may remind you

 

Guess what happens to financial services in London if the UK Brexits? They lose EU passporting rights. So the UK loses the Swiss financial business, which will go to Frankfurt instead.

 

The Swiss lose nothing, the UK does. In fact the Swiss may enjoy using German again, instead of English

If the EU overrides the Swiss people on this matter, it doesn't say much about the status of democracy in the EU.

The Swiss signed up to the bilateral freedom of movement treaty with the EU voluntarily (there might even have been a referendum about that, IIRC). They're the ones wanting to tear it apart now, they ran their referendum to try and justify the approach.

 

I think the EU member states should have a pan-European counter-referendum about the Swiss, for democratic balance

[unbeliever]

Much of that trade is EU-inward financial services via London, if I may remind you

 

Guess what happens to financial services in London if the UK Brexits? They lose EU passporting rights. So the UK loses the Swiss financial business, which will go to Frankfurt instead.

 

The Swiss lose nothing, the UK does. In fact the Swiss may enjoy using German again, instead of English

The Swiss signed up to the bilateral freedom of movement treaty with the EU voluntarily (there might even have been a referendum about that, IIRC). They're the ones wanting to tear it apart now, they ran their referendum to try and justify the approach.

 

I think the EU member states should have a pan-European counter-referendum about the Swiss, for democratic balance

 

The Swiss have changed their minds. They're a democracy. They're allowed.

Is there anything the EU could do which would make you say "Okay so there are economic risks, but the non-financial cost of membership is too high" ?

[sutty27]

For the love of God...

 

No I don't think the EU "will want to cut their exports by 16%", no more than the UK "will want to cut their exports by 45%".

 

In that case we will find a mutually agreeable trading deal.

 

But the UK will want to preserve as full an access to the Single Market as it can to keep as much of that 45% problem-free, and the EU will have the stronger negotiating position when discussing terms for that access, because it has far less to lose.

The EU as more to lose because they are already suffering more than us.

 

 

 

French, German, Spanish, Italian, Dutch <etc> businesses will expand to fill any void that is left if the UK won't trade. They will buy more French lamb, more German cars, more Polish steel if the UK don't want to sell it to the EU, so more of the stuff they consume will be supplied by European companies if the UK won't trade with the EU, which is very unlikely, the EU consumption won't fall so its economy won't fall.

 

That would lower their distribution costs and our distribution costs and be good for the environment as businesses sell locally instead of internationally.

 

 

All UK businesses have EU competition now, always have, always will. Restricting the UK's access to the Single Market in any way will make UK businesses less competitive in proportion, automatically giving their EU competition a leg up.

If the UK isn't in the single market then EU businesses will find it more difficult to export to the UK resulting in less competition for UK companies, so good for UK companies, they will then sell more of their products in the UK.

 

 

The UK will accept the EU's terms to preserve as much of the status quo.

That won't be in the best interests of the government in power.

[tzijlstra]

I'm now voting Leave because I oppose the rich using the mass importation of low skilled migrants to drive down wages and increase competition for basic necessities. Smash the rich! Leave the EU!

 

Yeah, wages in the UK are terrifyingly low compared to Europe.

 

 

Oh... Wait for it! NO they are not, they are amongst the highest, my word, who would have guessed.

 

What is best as a business owner?

 

10 companies that do the same as you with a market of 500 million people.

 

Or no other companies that do what you do and a market of 50 million people.

 

You appear to believe that we won't be able to sell into the EU but we will still be able to buy from the EU.

 

It is not often that you make a complete fool of yourself Sutty, I wonder if you are alright.

 

I understand perfectly.

 

The term market "access" is highly misleading. Yes, there is a little more paperwork to do when you need to trade with the USA or Switzerland compared to France and Germany. It's not really a problem. The difference is not a matter of days.

 

No he doesn't. He's free to come here. Just needs to get a work permit if he wants to make a job here.

 

The paperwork is not that complicated. It doesn't take an extra 2 days. I have no idea where you get that idea.

 

Andy does not need a visa to come to the UK. He just doesn't. Nor would Hans from Germany or Eddie from Poland. They would just need to apply for a work permit in order to take up a job here.

I'm going to sat that one more time.

If you're from a country we have good relations with, you only need a permit if you want to WORK here.

 

Stop being so ignorant, I now wonder if you and Sutty have been drinking and got something slipped into your drink without realising.

 

It doesn't take two days? No it takes up to three weeks. The 2 days is only if the EU and the UK reach a different tier agreement. Removing free movement of people is going to hurt people wanting to come here for business and people wanting to go to Europe for business, it is that simple.

 

Was unable to read the whole thread and I wouldn't be allowed to vote anyway even if I wanted to.

Although according to my neighbour (who, like so many other out-voters) has it all figured out, promised me that people "like me" will never be kicked out! Phew!

 

Great post Judy and I agree with what you said. I highlighted this part in particular because that is what I come across all the time as well. Just to clarify this point - if it remains easy for me (as a Dutchman) to live and work here, than the same applies for Roma people from Slovakia. You can't have one without the other.

[L00b]

The Swiss have changed their minds. They're a democracy. They're allowed.

So are EU member states, collectively represented by the EU institutions and each by its own elected MEPs, who signed the counterpart of the bilateral treaty with the Swiss.

 

What if they don't want to change their mind? (which is presently the case)

 

What makes the Swiss so 'special'? Or is that just a bit of confirmation bias here?

Is there anything the EU could do which would make you say "Okay so there are economic risks, but the non-financial cost of membership is too high" ?

Probably, e.g. any fundamental changes to the current European legislative process that removes any amount of oversight by MEPs. Edited June 1, 2016 by L00b

[unbeliever]

 

Stop being so ignorant, I now wonder if you and Sutty have been drinking and got something slipped into your drink without realising.

 

It doesn't take two days? No it takes up to three weeks. The 2 days is only if the EU and the UK reach a different tier agreement. Removing free movement of people is going to hurt people wanting to come here for business and people wanting to go to Europe for business, it is that simple.

 

 

 

You don't need this visa if you're from the USA. You don't need it from Canada. You don't need it from Australia. I gathered this information from your own link, but I already knew because I've been outside the EU on business. I could go on.

Not unless you're coming for work purposes for over a month and probably not even then unless you're staying for more than 6 months.

The situation is exactly what I said it was. From countries with whom we have good relations travel for work or leisure is not an problem.

Try checking your facts before you start insulting people.

Edited June 1, 2016 by unbeliever

[Tomjames]

........so what are the one dimensional shoddy parts of the article you disagree with?

 

the "free" country aspect, basically the premise of the article.

I explained it.