EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[Shef1985]

Throughout this they have been saying ignore the polls look where the money is being placed. Look where the money is being placed now.

 

---------- Post added 02-06-2016 at 16:35 ----------

 

I would not expect them to include the uk in the planning but you would think it sensible for the other 27 nations to plan or can they not yet refuse our attendance at meetings.

 

Sorry, I misread the post. What planning should they be doing? Backing the pound to collapse, preparing a reverse Dunkirk to bring back all our now unwanted foreign folk? Preparing the new European army to re-take us by force?

[Tomjames]

I thought the odds indicated the chance of something happening but if I am wrong I am sure some one will correct me.

 

Remain is still favourite because of the undecided voters....its expected by bookies they will vote remain.

 

Bookies odds are just a prediction of the outcome based on probability considering all the factors.

 

Favourites lose all the time though.

[Shef1985]

I thought the odds indicated the chance of something happening but if I am wrong I am sure some one will correct me.

 

Not wholly, otherwise they wouldn't change all the time. They reflect money placed on different outcomes just as much if not more. Remember the bookie never loses money. Well they do...but they minimise that risk.

[JFKvsNixon]

Remain is still favourite because of the undecided voters....its expected by bookies they will vote remain.

 

Bookies odds are just a prediction of the outcome based on probability considering all the factors.

 

Favourites lose all the time though.

 

If before a football match there is a flurry of bets for one team, the odds will drop. This doesn't mean that the team is more likely to win, it means that the bookmakers risk losing a more money than they're comfortable if they keep offering bets for that price.

Edited June 2, 2016 by JFKvsNixon

[Tomjames]

Not wholly, otherwise they wouldn't change all the time. They reflect money placed on different outcomes just as much if not more. Remember the bookie never loses money. Well they do...but they minimise that risk.

 

Money placed reflects risk management too.

It's not necessarily the odds of an outcome occurring, it's can the bookies be profitable with the bet?

[L00b]

What planning should they be doing?

Sensibly, prep their negotiating flowcharts and backstops to hit the ground running the morning after an official Brexit outcome. What's a red line first and foremost, what's in it for them next, then what's tradeable (what the UK can have) last.

 

Peeps keep forgetting that the UK will not be negotiating with Brussels only after a Brexit vote: the UK will have to negotiate with all 27 member states in parallel plus the usual and sizeable suspects outside the EU as well.

 

I fully expect that Paris and Bonn have got their post-Brexit gameplan down to a tee already. It's a cultural difference. Brits don't plan much medium- to long-term, they go for quick least-cost fixes.

 

Gove, Johnson & Co. would be so blindsided, they'd never know what hit them. In that respect at least, if Brexit gets the vote, then yes, I can fully see Cameron getting out of No.10 in such a hurry that the security detail outside the front door will be spinning in their y-fronts, and let Gove, Johnson & Co. take the 3 tons of flak

Edited June 2, 2016 by L00b

[Tomjames]

If before a football match there is a flurry of bets for one team, the odds will drop. This doesn't mean that the team is more likely to win, it means that the bookmakers risk losing a more money than they're comfortable if they keep overing bets for that price.

 

Yes, that's correct.

 

I worked in the gambling trade back in the day. Occasionally we'd get a huge phone-in bet that would slash the odds...then the public sees it & get on with a flurry of bets slashing the odds further. It doesn't mean 100% the gamble is going to win or its reflective of the actual odds of the gamble winning.

Edited June 2, 2016 by Tomjames
Ll

[panzer1]

If I am honest I do not move in big business or deal with matters between countries but if you knew there was a risk of something bad happening to you then you would try to mitigate it happening.

If I ran a firework factory and knew there was a risk, however small, that there could be a fire and hence nasty consequences then I would try to mitigate the risk and consequences. I would do this by reducing as much as possible ignition risks and mitigate any such consequences of an ignition by installing a sprinkler system to limit the damage.

The eu knows there is a risk, which granted they have little control over, but they have forecast dire events should the risk come to fruition so should they not be planning to limits the impact from that event.

[tinfoilhat]

Sorry, I misread the post. What planning should they be doing? Backing the pound to collapse, preparing a reverse Dunkirk to bring back all our now unwanted foreign folk? Preparing the new European army to re-take us by force?

 

Ive got an image of the Spanish and French building internment camps for elderly british expats. That would help Spains massive youth unemployment figure.

[Brian Equato]

George Osbourne on TV saying the North will bear the brunt of job losses if we leave the EU, anyone else remember some years ago when a Conservative minister said QUOTE " Unemployment in the North is a price worth paying for low inflation"? Funny how they are only concerned about the North when grubbing after votes.