unbeliever Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 I don't think anyone on the remain side has ever said the EU is perfect. It is not. There are advantages and there are disadvantages. To many, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. The biggest problem is coming out is a risk, a big risk, and many of us do not think it is a risk worth paying. For all the problems with immigration, the damage that could be done to the economy, and with it our childrens future, could be far worse. We are 8 years since the last crash and we have still not recovered. How long could this one take? The Brexit campaign win on immigration and always will. Their arguments are generally solid although the strategy after leaving does not make sense and would not work. Just because it works in a country of 23 million with no near neighbours to compete against does not mean it will work in a country with 70 million and a competitive market less than 25 miles from our shores. However, I have seen no viable alternative for trade and the economy that will still not involve the free movement of people and therefore in or out, the immigration issue will not be solved and therefore we have to be better in. The 2008 crash saw UK GDP drop by several percent over 5 quarters. Have there been any credible predictions that we're risking anything comparable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 (edited) Surely this is a selection of companies "considering" their position in the event of Brexit. I appreciate that there will be upheaval. I never said otherwise. Will anybody concede on the remain side that there will also be gains? They are "considering" their position indeed, since their crystal ball is as good as yours or mine. In boardroom speak, it's called "contingency planning" I can't conceive of any immediate or medium-term economical gains. The UK would effectively be leaving the best trading agreement which it can have with the EU/its member states, then row back towards that over a period of many years. Most outside-EU countries 'that matter' gave already gone on record Obama-like, that the UK will be renegotiating terms (trading and everything else, including eg visa-free travel in some cases) with them from scratch, and these things take a long time. Aside from that, and due in good part to the above, I can't conceive of any improvements to Joe Average's life in the short, medium or even long term in the UK. Only hardship through the ripples and after-effects of the above. I saw the new £5 note on tonight's news, with Churchill on it. The legend on it reads "I can promise you nothing other than blood, toil, sweat and tears". I did wonder about the irony of it. If you Brexit, the very best of luck. And I really mean that, as I believe that you will need it far more than at any time in the last few decades. But I ain't staying for the experiment. I like certainty, I have a family to support and a taller pile to make. Like most businesses, and they certainly can't afford to follow ideology over profitability. Edited June 2, 2016 by L00b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MobileB Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 (edited) I believe you don't worry. I just wonder how many and if they will be welcomed, wrt which staff they want hire/bring along etc. Coming to the Brexited UK to avoid EU red tape seems odd. Why not trade from anywhere else but the EU now if it's such a hassle? If their main market is the EU it still will be post-Brexit, and still with all the red tape, maybe more because the EU will still have its demands. If their main market is the UK and they relocate to the UK post Brexit to avoid EU hassle then fair play, good luck. Which company are you though? ---------- Post added 02-06-2016 at 19:44 ---------- Yes, never in doubt! Not enough for me. Remember a lot of companies trade from London because the current financial services set up across the EU makes it easy for them to do so. I'm talking about, for instance, the big insurance companies that deal in commercials such as shipping and aviation (not the retail side which is tiny in comparison). Movement of capital is easy (even between the pound and the euro). Suddenly when barriers are in place it is not the same. And if you are a company providing support and back office service, for instance, you will need to go where the trade is. At the moment you can do that for the all of Europe from the UK. Out and you can't. And Europe is a big market! That doesn't mean you cannot keep the company base in the UK, but you need to do your trading within the EU. The Service sector accounts for about 78% of our GDP and London is the biggest financial market in the World. Appreciate I am speaking to the converted with that! ---------- Post added 02-06-2016 at 20:03 ---------- The 2008 crash saw UK GDP drop by several percent over 5 quarters. Have there been any credible predictions that we're risking anything comparable? I think the economy is roughly 7% larger than it was before 2008 crash. In reality, it should be at least triple this. I have struggled to find credible economist that has said there won't a contraction. Edited June 2, 2016 by MobileB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shef1985 Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Remember a lot of companies trade from London because the current financial services set up across the EU makes it easy for them to do so. I'm talking about, for instance, the big insurance companies that deal in commercials such as shipping and aviation (not the retail side which is tiny in comparison). Movement of capital is easy (even between the pound and the euro). Suddenly when barriers are in place it is not the same. And if you are a company providing support and back office service, for instance, you will need to go where the trade is. At the moment you can do that for the all of Europe from the UK. Out and you can't. And Europe is a big market! That doesn't mean you cannot keep the company base in the UK, but you need to do your trading within the EU. Appreciate I am speaking to the converted with that! I think I might let my point die because no-one seems to get it and I don't want to flood the thread.. One last go: Lots of companies might leave the UK if we Brexit. They will relocate back in the EU. Does anyone know of one company that will leave the EU to move to the UK if we Brexit? Even if it's as small as Giuseppe The Toffee Hammer Maker in Rome that sells 100% of his products to Derby Toffees and Treats. I just want a flipside to all the companies that will leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MobileB Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 I think I might let my point die because no-one seems to get it and I don't want to flood the thread.. One last go: Lots of companies might leave the UK if we Brexit. They will relocate back in the EU. Does anyone know of one company that will leave the EU to move to the UK if we Brexit? Even if it's as small as Giuseppe The Toffee Hammer Maker in Rome that sells 100% of his products to Derby Toffees and Treats. I just want a flipside to all the companies that will leave. Good question. I'm sure some Brexiter will be along shortly to let you know I think I have made my case for the companies that are considering leaving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzer1 Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 just watching cameron on sky news, he does not like the questions on immigration, keeps trying to get it back to the economy but the interviewer keeps taking him back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinfoilhat Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 The 2008 crash saw UK GDP drop by several percent over 5 quarters. Have there been any credible predictions that we're risking anything comparable? Do you honestly think there wont be? We'll be binning a whole bunch of trade agreements and getting lord knows what from lord knows who and how long will it all take? Meanwhile the markets, who like a bit of stability, will go bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shef1985 Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Do you honestly think there wont be? We'll be binning a whole bunch of trade agreements and getting lord knows what from lord knows who and how long will it all take? Meanwhile the markets, who like a bit of stability, will go bonkers. And to be frank when anyone in authority makes a prediction that Brexit will be a bad thing they are shot down as incompetent by Leave. I think we need a Papal decree. The dude is infallible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 Recall that post? And still less so now that the Bundestag has recognised Turkey's genocide of Armenians and officially labelled it as such. Anyone who knows Turkey and Turks will confirm to you that little else comes anywhere near as close to injuring their national pride as this thorny point of history. It's a diplomatic right hook, smack between the eyes. Can't wait to see how riled up Erdogan is going to be Well, that would be "majorly majorly p*ss*d": according to continental news, he's already recalled the Turkish ambassador to Germany. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzer1 Posted June 2, 2016 Share Posted June 2, 2016 he,ll open the med up again, just you wait and see. ---------- Post added 02-06-2016 at 20:27 ---------- if he does think leave will have clinched it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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