sutty27 Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 You suggest in the above that the UK economy is captive, if I understand you correctly? Not captive but not as free as it will be outside the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 I read that the cost of government borrowing for the UK (10 years gilts) has fallen, just as Brexit is looking more likely from the polls. Now government borrowing costs are in large part down to the confidence that the market has in the economic prospects of the country as this impacts on the safety of lending to the government. I'm sure if the cost had risen, that this would have been announced as evidence that Brexit was bad for the economy and had caused an increase in the cost of borrowing. But since the cost has fallen, it'll just be a coincidence. Maybe in a few months, the cost will go back up again and it can then be announced as proof that Brexit is a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Not captive but not as free as it will be outside the EU.How and why? In your forthcoming reply, don't forget to frame the acquis communautaire which the UK will be lumped with in negotiations. It is the EU's standard backstop position in EEA/EFTA -like negotiations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 How and why? In your forthcoming reply, don't forget to frame the acquis communautaire which the UK will be lumped with in negotiations. It is the EU's standard backstop position in EEA/EFTA -like negotiations. As the EU has recently negotiated a free trade agreement with Canada, there must of course now be an agreement on free movement of workers with Canada. So you'll have to excuse me as I now just move to Canada, show them my EU passport and start looking for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 I read that the cost of government borrowing for the UK (10 years gilts) has fallen, just as Brexit is looking more likely from the polls. Now government borrowing costs are in large part down to the confidence that the market has in the economic prospects of the country as this impacts on the safety of lending to the government. I'm sure if the cost had risen, that this would have been announced as evidence that Brexit was bad for the economy and had caused an increase in the cost of borrowing. But since the cost has fallen, it'll just be a coincidence. Maybe in a few months, the cost will go back up again and it can then be announced as proof that Brexit is a bad idea. The odds are coming in, 9/4 now ---------- Post added 03-06-2016 at 08:49 ---------- Has anyone actually worked out the Labour Party line on the referendum? Corbyn is a long term eurosceptic. The party line is tepidly remain. Either way Cameron will be out the door, corbyn will be pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Corbyn is a long term eurosceptic. The party line is tepidly remain. Either way Cameron will be out the door, corbyn will be pleased. Really? I can't find any mention of it on his web site. On the other hand, it's good news that the chocolate ration has gone up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 Really? I can't find any mention of it on his web site. On the other hand, it's good news that the chocolate ration has gone up. Will this help? http://www.itv.com/news/2016-03-05/jeremy-corbyn-accused-of-trying-to-hide-eurosceptic-past/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 (edited) I read that the cost of government borrowing for the UK (10 years gilts) has fallen, just as Brexit is looking more likely from the polls.Guilts with what maturity? The strongest influence on guilt prices is exerted by the BoE's interest rate and the real and predicted rate of inflation. Gilts are all about security and predictability, the selection criteria is exclusively the investor's opinion concerning future inflation and interest rates. Gilt prices rise when the Bank of England cuts (or is expected to cut) the base interest rate, and fall when the base rate goes (or is expected to go) up. So the movement in gilt pricing strongly suggests that, if investors are expecting a Brexit, they're expecting a run on the pound which the BoE would try to stem through base rate increase(s). ---------- Post added 03-06-2016 at 09:57 ---------- As the EU has recently negotiated a free trade agreement with Canada, there must of course now be an agreement on free movement of workers with Canada. So you'll have to excuse me as I now just move to Canada, show them my EU passport and start looking for work. How long did it take the EU and Canada to negotiate that? Most EU nationals can already travel to Canada visa-free for up to 6 months. Including e.g. the Czechs, to which Canada consented to help CETA along. Edited June 3, 2016 by L00b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 (edited) Guilts with what maturity? The strongest influence on guilt prices is exerted by the BoE's interest rate and the real and predicted rate of inflation. Gilts are all about security and predictability, the selection criteria is exclusively the investor's opinion concerning future inflation and interest rates. Gilt prices rise when the Bank of England cuts (or is expected to cut) the base interest rate, and fall when the base rate goes (or is expected to go) up. So the movement in gilt pricing strongly suggests that, if investors are expecting a Brexit, they're expecting a run on the pound which the BoE would try to stem through base rate increase(s). Right. So now a fall in the cost of government borrowing is a sign of lack of confidence. That must be why Greece can borrow so cheaply. A fall in the value of the pound would do nothing for bond investors other than decrease the real value of any bonds they hold. ---------- Post added 03-06-2016 at 09:59 ---------- Canada does not have freedom of movement of workers has a core pillar of its existential requirements. Nor do we. But apparently the EU will agree free trade with Canada without such provision, but you keep telling us that they won't agree to such a thing with the UK. Odd that. Edited June 3, 2016 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 3, 2016 Share Posted June 3, 2016 (edited) Really? I can't find any mention of it on his web site. On the other hand, it's good news that the chocolate ration has gone up. No. He's keeping it under wraps. I think you'll find he voted against joining the EU in 1974. Voting against his party like on most things. Edited June 3, 2016 by Tomjames Jj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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