EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[unbeliever]

Because that would be economic suicide for the developed world, which cannot hope to compete with the costs of production of developing economies.

 

I don't see why.

WTO rules are almost there anyway.

 

Besides, AUSFTA doesn't seem to include any poor countries.

[altus]

What "EU deals"?

 

If you mean the TTIP, there's been a fair bit of opposition to it at the EU Parliament, but virtually none in the House of Commons, which has been negotiating it just as secretively as all other parties.

 

Make of this what you will.

It doesn't bode well for any post brexit UK-US trade deal. Add to that the effects of a post brexit government being keen to negotiate a deal quickly and those worrying about TTIP now may well find themselves wishing we could have TTIP.

[L00b]

I don't see why.

You'll have to particularise that a bit more, if you expect me to accept it.

 

I've stated, as my basis for estimating trade competition, respective production costs (inclusive of employee costs, unsurprisingly reflecting local living standards). High pounds per hour here, lower pounds in most of the EU, pennies in the developing world.

 

So, same widget made here logically costs more per unit, but customers always want cheapest and, since there are no tariffs in your model, customers buy the cheaper foreign widgets.

 

To compete, i.e. match the foreign cost per unit, the UK widget manufacturer has to reduce his unit cost, either through lower pay of UK employees and/or invest to improve productivity (hard to do with falling sales/activity/profit). If he does nowt, he goes to the wall.

 

Unless of course, a tariff is applied to the imported widgets, for levelling the foreign unit cost with the UK unit cost, and achieve (more or less) parity for competition.

 

You tell me how and why I've got this wrong.

WTO rules are almost there anyway.

What do you mean 'almost there'?

 

WTO rules have been around for decades.

 

The last redraft -currently applicable- was the Uruguay Round, the Doha Round is ongoing.

 

By the way, did you know what the highest decision-making body of the WTO is? The Ministerial Conference.

 

Guess what: it's no different in principle and composition to the EU's European Council (but is of course larger, since it includes all 162 heads of WTO signatory states, rather than the 28 heads of state of the EU).

 

But it is far less democratic than the EU/European Council, since the WTO does not include any Parliamentary body like the EU Parliament.

 

I just thought you'd like to know, and can I count on you to argue for the UK to exit the WTO for reclaiming its sovereignty?

It doesn't bode well for any post brexit UK-US trade deal. Add to that the effects of a post brexit government being keen to negotiate a deal quickly and those worrying about TTIP now may well find themselves wishing we could have TTIP.

Stop it already with your scaremongering Edited June 10, 2016 by L00b

[unbeliever]

You'll have to particularise that a bit more, if you expect me to accept it.

 

I've stated, as my basis for estimating trade competition, respective production costs (inclusive of employee costs, unsurprisingly reflecting local living standards). High pounds per hour here, lower pounds in most of the EU, pennies in the developing world.

 

You tell me how and why that is wrong.

What do you mean 'almost there'?

 

WTO rules have been around for decades.

 

The last redraft -currently applicable- was the Uruguay Round, the Doha Round is ongoing.

 

By the way, did you know what the highest decision-making body of the WTO is? The Ministerial Conference.

 

Guess what: it's no different in principle and composition to the EU's European Council (but is of course larger, since it includes all heads of states of WTO signatories, rather than the 28 heads of state of the EU).

 

But it is far less democratic than the EU/European Council, since the WTO does not include any Parliamentary body like the EU Parliament.

 

I just thought you'd like to know, and can I count on you to argue for the UK to exit the WTO for reclaiming its sovereignty?

Stop it already with your scaremongering

 

If the WTO started interfering extensively in UK domestic law then sure I would support withdrawal. At least it doesn't have a commission.

Myself I see the EU council and parliament as legitimate. It's the commission that I (and as far as I can tell everybody else) is complaining about.

 

What's the worst case regarding tariffs for trade with the EU post-Brexit?

My reading is maybe a few % on a subset of good which would actually hurt the EU more since they sell more to us than we to them. So that'll be the first thing to go in the negotiations for Brexit.

[L00b]

What's the worst case regarding tariffs for trade with the EU post-Brexit?

I don't know.

 

Remainers know that the worst case regarding tariffs for trade with the EU when Remaining would be exactly what they currently are, i.e. none at all.

 

It's not for Remainers to make the Brexiters' case and negotiation plan. I don't want to exit, I'm happy with the status-quo. You want to exit, you tell me how you're going to deal with the aftermath.

 

So it's for Brexiters to think about tariffs for trade with the EU post-Brexit (carefully so, please) and tell us.

 

Preferably soon, since the vote is about 2 weeks away now...and it's not as if I and others haven't been asking this very question in here time and again since last year.

 

EDIT - would you mind reconsidering the edited post #4426 and answering my question "You tell me how and why I've got this wrong", please

Edited June 10, 2016 by L00b

[Anna B]

Last night's Referendum debate (09.06.16.)

 

Impressed by Labour's Gisela Stuart, and Conservative's Amber Rudd. Always impressed by SMP's Nicola Sturgeon.

 

Very interesting to see strong female politicians coming to the front. That, if nothing else, made last night's debate worth watching.

 

I'd Like to see women running the country, (with maybe the odd token bloke, as long as he's pretty, and wears interesting shoes...)

[unbeliever]

I don't know.

 

Remainers know that the worst case regarding tariffs for trade with the EU when Remaining would be exactly what they currently are, i.e. none at all.

 

It's not for Remainers to make the Brexiters' case and negotiation plan. I don't want to exit, I'm happy with the status-quo. You want to exit, you tell me how you're going to deal with the aftermath.

 

So it's for Brexiters to think about tariffs for trade with the EU post-Brexit (carefully so, please) and tell us.

 

Preferably soon, since the vote is about 2 weeks away now...and it's not as if I haven't asked this very question in here 10 or 20 times since last year.

 

I read this quite some time ago, but then forgot about it.

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

 

---------- Post added 10-06-2016 at 12:39 ----------

 

Last night's Referendum debate (09.06.16.)

 

Impressed by Labour's Gisela Stuart, and Conservative's Amber Rudd. Always impressed by SMP's Nicola Sturgeon.

 

Very interesting to see strong female politicians coming to the front. That, if nothing else, made last night's debate worth watching.

 

I'd Like to see women running the country, (with maybe the odd token bloke, as long as he's pretty, and wears interesting shoes...)

 

Sturgeon is a very able politician. Shame we agree on essentially nothing.

Who was that Labour woman on the remain side in the middle. She was useless.

Boris is no substitute for Gove.

 

I don't think you liked it very much the last time we had a woman running the country. The goal is surely meritocracy. These things should be gender-blind.

 

Have to agree on Gisela Stuart.

I'd like to know from the remainers, what ulterior motives a Labour party european immigrant is supposed to have in supporting Brexit.

Edited June 10, 2016 by unbeliever

[MobileB]

I watched Question Time last night for the first time in like forever. I will say something about Nigel Farage - to say he is supposed to be a former FX trader, he obviously does not understand things very well.

 

Ignoring the fact that he stated that the Pound v Euro is trading 5% higher than it was last July (it's actually 9% down Nigel - see graph: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1Y - he also stated that the prospect of Brexit was doing no damage to the Pound and it was other influences that were dragging the Pound down.

 

So this week we have had:

•Halifax House Price Index 0.6% vs. 0.3% forecast (Tuesday)

•Manufacturing m/m 2.3% vs. 0.0% forecast (Wednesday)

•Industrial Production m/m 2.0% vs. 0.0% forecast (Wednesday)

•NIESR GDP Estimate 0.5% up from 0.4% (Wednesday)

•Goods Trade Balance -10.5B vs. -11.1B forecast (Thursday)

•Construction Output m/m 2.5% vs. 1.5% forecast (Friday)

 

Every single one of them should have made the pound stronger against the Euro - since Tuesday it has fallen by 1% and is continuing to fall today. So why is this bucking the trend? Simply opinion polls putting exit ahead or it very close. Sorry Nigel, for an ex FX trader you are quite dumb!! The only time in the past 6 months it has shown any significant gains is when the polls were showing a strong win for remain.

 

And for those who say Brexit will not damage the economy - stand by because everything is about to cost you more.

[Anna B]

I read this quite some time ago, but then forgot about it.

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

 

---------- Post added 10-06-2016 at 12:39 ----------

 

 

Sturgeon is a very able politician. Shame we agree on essentially nothing.

Who was that Labour woman on the remain side in the middle. She was useless.

Boris is no substitute for Gove.

 

I don't think you liked it very much the last time we had a woman running the country. The goal is surely meritocracy. These things should be gender-blind.

 

Have to agree on Gisela Stuart.

I'd like to know from the remainers, what ulterior motives a Labour party european immigrant is supposed to have in supporting Brexit.

 

That was Angela Eagle I believe. I've seen her fill in for Jeremy Corbyn for Prime ministers Question time. She did quite well and is famous for cracking a joke... yes really... She did sound very weedy on the debate, whereas Amber Rudd sounded authoritative.

 

I've always admired Margaret Thatcher as a strong, conviction politician, (and have said so,) just detested her policies.

 

You're quite right of course, the aim should be meritocracy, but do you think we have it? Seems like an old boy's club to me. Women seem to handle things quite differently. Dare I say it? - with more common sense and less posturing.

[unbeliever]

That was Angela Eagle I believe. I've seen her fill in for Jeremy Corbyn for Prime ministers Question time. She did quite well and is famous for cracking a joke... yes really... She did sound very weedy on the debate, whereas Amber Rudd sounded authoritative.

 

I've always admired Margaret Thatcher as a strong, conviction politician, (and have said so,) just detested her policies.

 

You're quite right of course, the aim should be meritocracy, but do you think we have it? Seems like an old boy's club to me. Women seem to handle things quite differently. Dare I say it? - with more common sense and less posturing.

 

I don't think we've achieved meritocracy yet. We're heading in the right direction though, at least over the long term.

I'm highly dubious of un-meritocratic measures designed to balance out other un-meritocratic effects, that's all.