EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[unbeliever]

?? My vote is for what I think will be better for the UK in the long term, not just the next 4 years. I did clearly say that I think we should stay in the EU and work together to make it better.

 

You defined yourself as a Euro-sceptic. I wrongly assumed that this meant you were disinclined toward EU membership and all the european integration that this entails now and in the future.

Reform of the EU is a forlorn hope.

[Shef1985]

I got a nice Vote Leave leaflet today. It says it will create 300,000 jobs because of new trade deals. Doesn't say what or how so I'm guessing at best it will be 300,000 that lost their jobs because of Brexit being hired to write all the new trade deals we need.

 

It also says they will cut VAT on fuel saving families.....£64 a year. I travel to Europe a few times a year. Personally I'd pay that to not have to queue in the non-EU line at the airport.

 

There is also a nice Dad's Army graphic showing Turks heading to Europe with Syria and Iraq nicely highlighted for the gullible too.

 

What the absolute frick. That is the BEST they can do?????

[L00b]

Reform of the EU is a forlorn hope.

We Remainers are as entitled to our beliefs, as you Brexiters are to yours

[unbeliever]

We Remainers are as entitled to our beliefs, as you Brexiters are to yours

 

It's my opinion. I do not offer it as a fact.

[Bonzo77]

You defined yourself as a Euro-sceptic. I wrongly assumed that this meant you were disinclined toward EU membership and all the european integration that this entails now and in the future.

Reform of the EU is a forlorn hope.

 

I don't think it's a forlorn hope. Times are changing. Social media has changed politics forever.

[L00b]

It's my opinion. I do not offer it as a fact.

Never suggested that you did.

 

I just balanced its single-sidedness a bit

 

Juncker, Tusk, Merkel and several other EU heads of state are on record as committed to push Cameron's reforms through soonest if the vote is to Remain. So our beliefs are supported by some tangible elements at least.

 

They also have a vested interest to mitigate the nascent Eurosceptic trend developing across the EU, and that means further reforms/concessions. You can bet your bottom dollar that many EU heads of states are busy drafting their own renegotiated terms and waiting on the outcome to hit Brussels with them regardless of whether the vote is Remain or Brexit.

 

Such reforms would never be of the extent which Brexiters want, of course. Because Brexiters want a return to what effectively amounts to the UK of the 60s, and corresponding EU reforms would basically kill off the principles that underpin the good working order of the Single Market.

Edited June 13, 2016 by L00b

[milquetoast1]

Reform of the EU is a forlorn hope.

 

If we vote to remain I fear you a right. Evidenced by what little Cameron was able to achieve earlier in the year. He was only asking for baby steps, and he got laughed at.

 

But you know what, I actually think that if we vote to leave then reform is possible. We call their bluff as it were.

 

Some of the EU bigwigs have been making more reflective comments recently, that perhaps they have gone a bit power crazy and lost sight what the EU should be. Maybe some of these comments are a result of the odds on a leave victory shortening, but hey ho ...

 

Anyway, don't paint me surprised if we vote leave and then suddenly the door is opened up to sensible reform and we don't end up leaving.

[truman]

If we vote to remain I fear you a right. Evidenced by what little Cameron was able to achieve earlier in the year. He was only asking for baby steps, and he got laughed at.

 

But you know what, I actually think that if we vote to leave then reform is possible. We call their bluff as it were.

 

Some of the EU bigwigs have been making more reflective comments recently, that perhaps they have gone a bit power crazy and lost sight what the EU should be. Maybe some of these comments are a result of the odds on a leave victory shortening, but hey ho ...

 

Anyway, don't paint me surprised if we vote leave and then suddenly the door is opened up to sensible reform and we don't end up leaving.

 

So you reckon we'd be able to vote to leave and then not leave?

[MobileB]

Short answer.

 

I don't know ... but I'm not worried.

 

Longer answer.

 

Our company is a microcosm of the entire UK trade of physical products (so Loob can sell a totally different story). Our ratios of imports/exports of these products to and from the EU and non-EU is very similar to the UK as a whole. 1/3rd of our exports are within the EU, with 1/3rd and increasing to eastern Europe (future EU?) and 1/3rd to rest of world. We import more from the EU than we sell, but this has been falling for many years as we switch suppliers to Turkey and Asia. This is because of the stagnation of EU suppliers, as the quality and price of non-EU product improves. Things change, whether in or out of the EU, and we adapt or die. There are risks whether in or out of the EU. I think the risks are higher in the short-term if we leave, but the risks are higher in the long-term if we stay.

 

What if the EU was to go all kamikazie and apply the same tariffs to the UK as the ROW, and this was reciprocated? In our case that would be 4% on 1/3rd of 40% of our sales, and 10% (and falling) of our purchases. So probably very little effect really. It would make things a little bit more expensive for our EU customers, but not enough for them to shop elsewhere, and it would speed up our process of resourcing supply to Turkey/China. Our MD would be lobbying to get the EU stipulated tariffs that our ROW customers have to pay reduced. Our Turkish suppliers are already talking about trade possibilities that could open up if we exit the EU. So overall slightly less trade within the EU, and slightly more outside, adding up to diddly squat in the short term ... but I don't know. Which was my short answer

 

Conclusion

 

Or MD is pooing his pants, but myself and the other directors are not concerned. The people that actually talk to customers and suppliers are not concerned. Our customers are not concerned, our suppliers are not concerned (the non EU ones at least). Some politicians are very concerned.

 

Are you trading in local currencies, or Euro and Dollar?

 

Surely it would depend on the margins you are working to? Based on your figures, you are adding 4% to the cost of 16% of your sales which on the scale of things is not huge and if the pound weakens by between 1 and 2% (it has gone down 6% against the Euro in the past month) then this will counteract that. That is on the presumption that the market will not be smaller due to the recession that will happen.

 

I would be more concerned on your purchases (which is probably why your procurement manager has been in Turkey and your MD is pooping his pants). The weakened pound will not only increase your direct costs (a fall to around 1.15* against the Euro is around 21% less than it was a year ago) putting these up, which with the tariffs as well will mean an overall cost increase of something like 9% (based on a 4% tariff), your indirect costs will also increase as cost of fuel and other things traded against a weakend pound/dollar. Even for a company like yours you could be talking 15%+ being added to your cost base. Appreciate you already allow 10% or so for currency conversion but you will have no wiggle room.

 

Not sure at bottom line level what your working to (rather than gross) but to cover 15% will take some doing.

 

Obviously, don't know your sales and costs figures so these are estimates but I bet I am not too far away.

 

*The last time we were at this level was 2008-2013. I think you should be budgeting at those levels but the rest of the world has moved on since then, remember!

[Shef1985]

If we vote to remain I fear you a right. Evidenced by what little Cameron was able to achieve earlier in the year. He was only asking for baby steps, and he got laughed at.

 

But you know what, I actually think that if we vote to leave then reform is possible. We call their bluff as it were.

 

Some of the EU bigwigs have been making more reflective comments recently, that perhaps they have gone a bit power crazy and lost sight what the EU should be. Maybe some of these comments are a result of the odds on a leave victory shortening, but hey ho ...

 

Anyway, don't paint me surprised if we vote leave and then suddenly the door is opened up to sensible reform and we don't end up leaving.

 

Interesting idea and something I have considered a possibility as well. That might cause a helluvalot of panty wetting outrage from the most indignant, poorly informed, We Want Our Country Back Brexiters. Another referendum would surely be demanded.