unbeliever Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 (edited) I just posted my thoughts and to understand my focus on the economic angle you need to understand my view on the EU. Like you I don't care much for the fiscal and political aspects of it. I think we need to stay in but primarily as a trading partner to take advantage of the free market and little more. I appreciate your views on ever closer union but can't agree that is inevitable for us because we have always been semi-detached from all that anyway - we'll just have to agree to disagree on that. I think the politics thing is a side-issue really because when it comes down to the crunch the economics of exit will absolutely and utterly trump everything else. Part of that is of course is a debate about economic migration, and as much as people don't like what happens now they are going to detest the alternative outside the EU. Following on from that my view is we need to give the PM a chance to renegotiate before we do anything hasty. My hope is we can just move onto a different track from the core countries focusing on what we do best - trade. So, to answer your question a free trade option will equate to being part of the single market. The EU is unlikely to let us trade freely unless we adopt its rules and regulations for the most part and also contribute to the EU budget, which is exactly what Norway and Switzerland have to do. The -2.2% option based on WTO trade rules is not the same. It is not free trade as such but rather a framework that is designed to promote free-er trade. But....no guarantees. I care very much about the politics as I think the economic case is fairly neutral. Did you mean "unlike you" in your first paragraph? I honestly do get where you're coming from. For myself I place a high value on good government and more on accountable government. Even the absolute implausible, worst case of 2.2% loss over 15 years would seem a small price to me for the restoration of functional democracy. Edited June 20, 2015 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 I care very much about the politics as I think the economic case is fairly neutral. Did you mean "unlike you" in your first paragraph? I honestly do get where you're coming from. For myself I place a high value on good government and more on accountable government. Even the absolute implausible, worst case of 2.2% loss over 15 years would seem a small price to me for the restoration of functional democracy. No, I meant exactly what I said - I'm not defending the idea of the Euro or the political drives that it underpins. Neither is for the UK and I don't think the British public will ever accept either. Last time I checked our position in terms of convergence criteria for Euro entry were practically the worst out of all non-Euro members and prospective members. Think it was only Serbia and Albania that were in worse shape. It will be decades before we ever meet the criteria - I'm in late middle age and I'll be dead before it happens. Seriously, you don't need to worry about us adopting the Euro because we can't and we won't. That pretty much rules us out of banking and fiscal union. Quite simply we can't become part of the core. So that leaves us with what else we can take from EU membership and that is the trade and free movement element we originally joined for. Realistically there is no other relationship we can have. As for government there's no guarantee that life outside the EU will give us better government. I'm not quite sure how anybody thinks our political class will suddenly improve because we are not in the EU. There's every chance they will get worse. My view is we let the PM negotiate and see what can be achieved in the next 1-2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 (edited) No, I meant exactly what I said - I'm not defending the idea of the Euro or the political drives that it underpins. Neither is for the UK and I don't think the British public will ever accept either. Last time I checked our position in terms of convergence criteria for Euro entry were practically the worst out of all non-Euro members and prospective members. Think it was only Serbia and Albania that were in worse shape. It will be decades before we ever meet the criteria - I'm in late middle age and I'll be dead before it happens. Seriously, you don't need to worry about us adopting the Euro because we can't and we won't. That pretty much rules us out of banking and fiscal union. Quite simply we can't become part of the core. So that leaves us with what else we can take from EU membership and that is the trade and free movement element we originally joined for. Realistically there is no other relationship we can have. As for government there's no guarantee that life outside the EU will give us better government. I'm not quite sure how anybody thinks our political class will suddenly improve because we are not in the EU. There's every chance they will get worse. My view is we let the PM negotiate and see what can be achieved in the next 1-2 years. Sorry, yes. I mis-read it. Confuse "don't care for" i.e. dislike, with "don't care about". Perhaps we should come back to this when we actually know what's on the table as you suggest. I hope you're right about the EURO, because I'm certain that would be disastrous for us. In the event of Brexit, which I still hope for, I think you'll be surprised by the wide range of options available to us. Maybe we'll see. Edited June 20, 2015 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swarfendor437 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I would vote to leave, purely on TTIP alone - deal being done behind closed doors with unelected bureaucrats - no transparency - that will lead to an agreement sealed for 30 years before the public gets to know the fine detail: http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showpost.php?p=11274566&postcount=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not made my mind up, but if I had!, I would lie about it, as I did to the pollsters before the last election!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I would vote to leave, purely on TTIP alone - deal being done behind closed doors with unelected bureaucrats - no transparency - that will lead to an agreement sealed for 30 years before the public gets to know the fine detail: http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showpost.php?p=11274566&postcount=1 tbh, swarfendor, the UK has been pushing towards getting signed up to the TTIP twice as hard as the EU (since it enjoys that special relationship with the TTIP's chief architect, don't you know ) and with just as much transparency i.e. none. In or out, where the TTIP is concerned the UK and the EU are just as bad as one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
999tigger Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 tbh, swarfendor, the UK has been pushing towards getting signed up to the TTIP twice as hard as the EU (since it enjoys that special relationship with the TTIP's chief architect, don't you know ) and with just as much transparency i.e. none. In or out, where the TTIP is concerned the UK and the EU are just as bad as one another. Is it a case its non transparent? They are trade talks, complex and boring. If you wnat to find out about them just google. I wouldnt expect the commission to give monthly updates. Is it a case its non democratic? Wouldnt the people who get to sign off be the Council of ministers who would need to ratify the agreement? They are the democratically elected representatives. If we dont sign up to this, then you have to decide whether its better for the Uk being in or out. If the UK is excluded, then its highly likely business will want its own deal with the US. Its also unlikely the UK will eb able to negotiate a better deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 (edited) Is it a case its non transparent? They are trade talks, complex and boring. If you wnat to find out about them just google. I wouldnt expect the commission to give monthly updates. Is it a case its non democratic? Wouldnt the people who get to sign off be the Council of ministers who would need to ratify the agreement? They are the democratically elected representatives. If we dont sign up to this, then you have to decide whether its better for the Uk being in or out. If the UK is excluded, then its highly likely business will want its own deal with the US. Its also unlikely the UK will eb able to negotiate a better deal. Before we push this any further...how much do you know about (-what little is already known for sure about-) the TTIP, tigger? Yes, it is setting record levels of opacity to public scrutiny. Yes, it is setting record levels of autocratic negotiation-pursuing and decision making within our supposedly democratic processes (UK, EU and further), as not being debated by elected representatives (MPs here or MEPs in Brussels/Strasbourg). Several MEPs (and elected reps in national countries, EU and not) have long made a lot of noise about being actively denied access to the draft texts and the negotiations. The people doing the groundwork and heavy lifting are by and large all unelected political appointees (here, Whitehall mandarins; at the EU, unelected commissioners). The only substantive leak to date has been by New Zealand about the similar (but geographically-distinct) TPP, which they released in full late last November. Edited January 20, 2016 by L00b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samssong Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is it a case its non transparent? They are trade talks, complex and boring. If you wnat to find out about them just google. I wouldnt expect the commission to give monthly updates. Is it a case its non democratic? Wouldnt the people who get to sign off be the Council of ministers who would need to ratify the agreement? They are the democratically elected representatives. If we dont sign up to this, then you have to decide whether its better for the Uk being in or out. If the UK is excluded, then its highly likely business will want its own deal with the US. Its also unlikely the UK will eb able to negotiate a better deal. We should leave this Franco German club as soon as possible . We should also ask all the immigrants who have come here but do not work to go back home . Please note the do not work comment before the usual suspects jump on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quik Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The way things are going the whole thing might fall to bits prior to us getting a vote on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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