EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[tzijlstra]

More than 20 billion?

 

Where does this 20 billion come from? (A source would be nice) If it is correct, wouldn't that be a known fact because the EU has a working accountability system for its funding in place?

 

As for more than 20 billion, let's start with the NHS - it is hard to find accurate figures due to the fragmented nature of all the different trusts and so on. But Kingsfund provide a reliable overview of deficits across all NHS trusts. There is a current deficit of 3 billion, per year. That is growing, each year. It is likely that several trusts are now in negative equity. This does not include borrowing to invest in new facilities etc. this is purely a day-to-day running cost deficit.

 

The MOD got its wrists slapped in 2012, it had run up a deficit of over 12 billion. The current 'equipment plan' is talking about a negative deficit still existing and it needs addressing, despite the recent reorganisation where thousands of soldiers were laid off.

 

The FTSE 350 companies have a pension deficit of 92 billion pounds. They represent a small part of the total businesses in the UK, many other companies have deficits but because they are not necessarily listed we don't know how big those are. BHS was not the first to fall due to that. Each time a company pension fund falls over, it adds costs to the UK government who all of a sudden have to plug funding holes for thousands of affected people. This is not accounted for. The national welfare bill does not take this into account.

 

Recently Osbourne scrapped plans for some sort of reform, a 3 billion pound deficit was the result, unaccounted for in the current budget. (I forgot what it was and the exact numbers, but it was close to this).

 

The government is still borrowing more than it has coming in.

 

Anybody who thinks the UK is much better off than the EU/Eurozone is having a laugh. There are tonnes of hidden problems underneath the surface in the UK that are all going to pop at some point.

 

The housing market crash seems to be hailed as some sort of wonderful event for first time buyers. It will in fact dump millions of households into negative equity (those that are already living on credit will be affected worst - there is a large amount of people borrowing far more than their income as can be seen here) or, at a minimum, wipe out a large part of their equity.

 

I think Osbourne has been lying about exact figures and I don't like that, but let's be clear - the UK has a huge economic problem with an economy being kept afloat on borrowing at the moment. Anybody thinking/disregarding the economy in this debate is in for a nightmarish and rude awakening.

 

The FTSE losing ground at the moment, due to the Brexit vote gaining power, means that those pension-funds see their deficits increase even more. It is already beginning to unravel at the seams.

[Tomjames]

Where does this 20 billion come from? (A source would be nice) If it is correct, wouldn't that be a known fact because the EU has a working accountability system for its funding in place?

 

As for more than 20 billion, let's start with the NHS - it is hard to find accurate figures due to the fragmented nature of all the different trusts and so on. But Kingsfund provide a reliable overview of deficits across all NHS trusts. There is a current deficit of 3 billion, per year. That is growing, each year. It is likely that several trusts are now in negative equity. This does not include borrowing to invest in new facilities etc. this is purely a day-to-day running cost deficit.

 

The MOD got its wrists slapped in 2012, it had run up a deficit of over 12 billion. The current 'equipment plan' is talking about a negative deficit still existing and it needs addressing, despite the recent reorganisation where thousands of soldiers were laid off.

 

The FTSE 350 companies have a pension deficit of 92 billion pounds. They represent a small part of the total businesses in the UK, many other companies have deficits but because they are not necessarily listed we don't know how big those are. BHS was not the first to fall due to that. Each time a company pension fund falls over, it adds costs to the UK government who all of a sudden have to plug funding holes for thousands of affected people. This is not accounted for. The national welfare bill does not take this into account.

 

Recently Osbourne scrapped plans for some sort of reform, a 3 billion pound deficit was the result, unaccounted for in the current budget. (I forgot what it was and the exact numbers, but it was close to this).

 

The government is still borrowing more than it has coming in.

 

Anybody who thinks the UK is much better off than the EU/Eurozone is having a laugh. There are tonnes of hidden problems underneath the surface in the UK that are all going to pop at some point.

 

The housing market crash seems to be hailed as some sort of wonderful event for first time buyers. It will in fact dump millions of households into negative equity (those that are already living on credit will be affected worst - there is a large amount of people borrowing far more than their income as can be seen here) or, at a minimum, wipe out a large part of their equity.

 

I think Osbourne has been lying about exact figures and I don't like that, but let's be clear - the UK has a huge economic problem with an economy being kept afloat on borrowing at the moment. Anybody thinking/disregarding the economy in this debate is in for a nightmarish and rude awakening.

 

The FTSE losing ground at the moment, due to the Brexit vote gaining power, means that those pension-funds see their deficits increase even more. It is already beginning to unravel at the seams.

 

You are talking about the UK structural deficit.

I remember reading somewhere the EU itself (the institution) has a shortfall that the UK will be expected to cover.

[tzijlstra]

Well according to the BBC our council leaders believe leaving the EU would be a grave threat to our local economies.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36545522

 

Like many I am trying to decide how to vote and I thought the above could give me some valuable information on how to vote - being concerned about Sheffield and its growth, quality of living etc... But like most news articles I find this one lacking in any detail.

As far as I can tell the basic points are

 

"Shadow chancellor John McDonnell and ex-PM Gordon Brown will talk about how EU funds have helped UK cities later."

 

So I think this talks about funding to help with regional development projects. The sort of projects that are designed to create a level playing field across Europe to help poorer states to be similar to richer ones such as Germany. Yet I think this is flawed for two reasons.

 

1. There are a lot more poorer former eastern European countries joining the EU which will be mean funds will be diverted to help them.

2. You did used to see EU flags on a lot of regeneration projects around Sheffield and in particular the wath area but now not so many, which seems to suggest that is drying up anyway.

 

1. Those Eastern European Countries are catching up fast, on average their economies have been growing over 5% in 2015, double the rate of the richer Western countries. They will soon reach a point where they are self-sufficient and won't need more EU money.

 

2. You used to see those flags on 'infrastructure' related projects. There are many, many more projects funded by the EU - the key one for Yorkshire is science, with Sheffield, Leeds and York all raking in large amounts of European cash.

 

Secondly it states...

"Leaving would be a grave threat to our local economies, risking people's jobs and livelihoods," the letter from the Core Cities group of councils said."

 

I guess this refers to us being able to export to the EU and having umbrella trade agreements set up by Europe with the likes of China etc. I think it also means that the USA who like to deal with Europe can do so through us - with their special relationships. I guess it could also be impacted by the big car manufacturers such as Toyota in Derby (?) Nissan in the North East. That one of the reasons for them being here employing UK people is because they can sell their goods into Europe.

 

But is all this of grave concern. If we pull out of the EU would it dry up over night, would plants be shifted to other EU countries with the loss of jobs. Or would other trade agreements be made. Is this a scare tactic or are the alternatives viable.

 

Nobody can deal in certainties, but here is a near-certainty - for the UK to remain part of the single market it will have to accept free movement of people as a principle, it will still be subject to EU regulations that apply to trade and the environment (the latter until those treaties run out).

 

All a Brexit does in that case is stop the UK have influence. If on the other hand it goes and argues that free movement of people has to be stopped, it will automatically lose access to the single market. At this point your Nissan's, BMW's and other large manufacturers will seriously be considering cutting their losses here and opening up in the EU instead.

 

This is an interesting article from a German perspective...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526839

 

It seems to paint a less glum picture on trade...

 

I really dont have the answers or in deed a bent either way - so I wondered what other people feel ?

 

I don't quite see how you see that as a less glum picture on trade. It says that Germany wants to keep Britain close - ie. in the single market. That doesn't mean it can keep Britain close - that is up to the outcome of this referendum. The Brexit camp is campaigning on cutting immigration. I'll leave you to draw conclusions based on this notion.

 

---------- Post added 16-06-2016 at 13:03 ----------

 

You are talking about the UK structural deficit.

I remember reading somewhere the EU itself (the institution) has a shortfall that the UK will be expected to cover.

 

Yes, the NHS, MOD and so on have a structural deficit, they are part of the UK government, no? I still need a source to know where you got this 20 billion from. It is rather pointless arguing on the basis of a (so far) made up figure.

[Tomjames]

 

Yes, the NHS, MOD and so on have a structural deficit, they are part of the UK government, no? I still need a source to know where you got this 20 billion from. It is rather pointless arguing on the basis of a (so far) made up figure.

 

Im not arguing. I cant remember the source.

[tzijlstra]

Im not arguing. I cant remember the source.

 

In which case you should go back to the posts where you refer to it, delete the reference and apologise for bringing it up.

[Shef1985]

You wish. He's defeating every remain opponent put in front of him. This shameless attempt by the Guardian to discredit him by manipulating his 79 year old father is desperate and absolutely shameful.

Your political opponents family is not fair game. What's next? Go after the Brexiteers' children?

 

It is when he brought his dad into it himself!

[tzijlstra]

It is when he brought his dad into it himself!

 

I missed who is being referred to here. But Farage made a right fool of himself in his reply to an ITV presenter when he was asked what he thought about Bob Geldof yelling him down on fishing and calling him a fraud. He basically said it was disgusting 'these are multi-millionaires telling the working classes what to do!'

 

Conveniently reinforcing the fact he is a fraud. This is a man taking home a full MEP's wage for not showing up to any but one of the fishery committee meetings Bob Geldof was talking about.

 

Endearing hypocrite with a smile, the most awful sort of politician in my opinion.

[Tomjames]

In which case you should go back to the posts where you refer to it, delete the reference and apologise for bringing it up.

 

There's defo a shortfall in the EU budget though. I read it somewhere.

[Shef1985]

I missed who is being referred to here. But Farage made a right fool of himself in his reply to an ITV presenter when he was asked what he thought about Bob Geldof yelling him down on fishing and calling him a fraud. He basically said it was disgusting 'these are multi-millionaires telling the working classes what to do!'

 

Conveniently reinforcing the fact he is a fraud. This is a man taking home a full MEP's wage for not showing up to any but one of the fishery committee meetings Bob Geldof was talking about.

 

Endearing hypocrite with a smile, the most awful sort of politician in my opinion.

 

Could not agree with you more.

[tzijlstra]

There's defo a shortfall in the EU budget though. I read it somewhere.

 

Which is fine, but as long as I don't know what the shortfall is, what it is to do with, which budget it applies to etc. etc. I can't answer, I can't argue about it and you shouldn't bring it up. This is exactly what leads to uninformed discussion, it is pointless.