unbeliever Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 (edited) Leave's own poster/pamphlet say that will save families just £64 a year. Sounds about right. Any suggestions as to what we should ask for at the third referendum? Edited June 20, 2016 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChet Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Sounds about right. And if Brexit wins the moderate prediction for loss in GDP divided by number of households in the UK is £4300. Oh well, they can raise taxes or make cuts to fill the void. But your gas is a quid a week cheaper! Whoooooop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 And if Brexit wins the moderate prediction for loss in GDP divided by number of households in the UK is £4300. Oh well, they can raise taxes or make cuts to fill the void. But your gas is a quid a week cheaper! Whoooooop! No it isn't. Are you referring to the estimate for the total growth up to 2030 if we stay in minus the estimate for total growth up to 2030 if we leave? Which if memory serves is 29% if we stay in and 27% if we leave. This from people who reliably get every such estimate on UK<->EU matters wrong. Is this your supposed "loss". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 (edited) The EU changes all the time. In fact, it is possible changes that the brexiters are using to try and frighten the electorate into voting leave. The key to gaining reform is to take an active part in designing these changes, instead of just sitting on the sidelines, moaning that reform is impossible.QFT. No-one here will ever know how instrumental the UK was in bringing the Unified Patents Court about. Regardless of the referendum outcome (all the more so since a Brexit vote would most likely kill it outright). About 40 years in the making, at long last a single jurisdiction in which to litigate patent infringement across Europe (and a few more countries beside), instrumental to drive high-end, big-ticket R&D and commercialisation throughout Europe by the largest pharma, IT and telecom multinationals. Based upon mostly UK legal principles and procedural best practice (already the envy of all in the EU and beyond in the field of IP), with rules of practice grounded in UK precedent, and a roster of judges with global renown for their intellectual prowess and fairness. The existence of which is now suspended upon the outcome of the referendum, right at the end of the last straight, a hair short of the finish line. politicians and populists Edited June 20, 2016 by nikki-red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 No it isn't. Are you referring to the estimate for the total growth up to 2030 if we stay in minus the estimate for total growth up to 2030 if we leave? Which if memory serves is 29% if we stay in and 27% if we leave. This from people who reliably get every such estimate on UK<->EU matters wrong. Is this your supposed "loss". You make it sound like there is only one estimate of the economic impact..... Highly disingenuous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 (edited) You make it sound like there is only one estimate of the economic impact..... Highly disingenuous I made no such suggestion. Which is quite obvious from the context (quoting TheChet referring to it as "the moderate prediction"). I merely wish to make it clear that the number he quoted is not a loss, but a failure to gain quite as much, and not over one year but over many. Oh and that the people who's models produce these numbers have a very good record of getting these things backwards when it comes to the UK and EU integration. But no you're right to draw attention to it. I think I saw one prediction that the UK would grow by 25% by 2030 in the event of Brexit and 29% in the event of remain. So that's a bigger imaginary "not actually a loss" than the imaginary "not actually a loss" we were discussing. Edited June 20, 2016 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChet Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 No it isn't. Are you referring to the estimate for the total growth up to 2030 if we stay in minus the estimate for total growth up to 2030 if we leave? Which if memory serves is 29% if we stay in and 27% if we leave. This from people who reliably get every such estimate on UK<->EU matters wrong. Is this your supposed "loss". Yes, that's the figure I'm referring to. Smaller growth means less GDP means less money means void. So I think I'd rather pay VAT on gas/electric and not risk that. At worst I'm only a quid a week down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Yes, that's the figure I'm referring to. Smaller growth means less GDP means less money means void. So I think I'd rather pay VAT on gas/electric and not risk that. At worst I'm only a quid a week down. Average annual growth of 1.8% vs average annual growth of 1.7% (or 1.6% in the more pessimistic case for I1L2T3). Even if they're right about that (which would be a first), I'll have my government back thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChet Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 (edited) Average annual growth of 1.8% vs average annual growth of 1.7% (or 1.6% in the more pessimistic case for I1L2T3). Even if they're right about that (which would be a first), I'll have my government back thanks. Dismiss the experts then weepy 'it's about sovereignty' again. Figures. It's not your government, it's all ours and that line is getting tedious now. Edited June 20, 2016 by TheChet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 (edited) Dismiss the experts then weepy 'it's about sovereignty again.' Figures. It's not your government, it's all ours and that line is getting tedious now. It was always about sovereignty. I want you to have your government back as well. You don't seem to want it though. As for the economics, doesn't sound all that scary does it when you express it without spin as 1.7% (or 1.6%) annual growth vs 1.8% annual growth. Clever what you can do with a bit of iffy maths, a spin doctor and a big poster campaign isn't it. Edited June 20, 2016 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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