L00b Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Ah good. I'm going to call you "the honest remainer". Quite so. "Access" to the single market is easier if you're a member. It still exists if you're not. Wooosh! Way to miss the point, there, unbeliever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 It's not going to stay into the single market. But "access" to the single market is quite a different matter. The EU buys and sells things with countries all over the world without then being members of the single market. Yes, and they all pay for the privilege. Consider that the US pays an average just below 3% in tariffs for trading with the EU and that the UK exports around 25 billion £ to the EU monthly, that is a tariff-rate of 750 million per month, It will make all UK products in the EU 3% more expensive, but the UK also imports around 45 billion a month, meaning that the consumer in the UK has to find an extra 1,5 billion a month for those goods. And don't give me that nonsense 'we will just buy it somewhere else' because you know damn well that most of that import is stuff that the UK relies on. It might change over time. But for the first decade that isn't going to change. The other argument I can already see you making up is - we will sign 0% tariffs with other nations. No you won't, and if the UK will, it is to the detriment of the UK because it will be flooded with goods and services as the average cost per unit (product/service) in the UK is far higher than that of potential replacements for the EU. Meaning prices here have to come down dramatically, meaning that those stories you dismiss as scaremongering from economists will become a stark reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 This bothers me too. Is the government (or any other) going to divert any of the savings into things we would like to see, or will it all be wasted/spent on pet projects,expenses etc/disappear? How can we, the ordinary people, know how it's spent. Whoever is in charge will make sure we only hear what they want us to hear... We have a free press, minimal government secrecy and various other means of holding the state to account. I expect you and I will strongly disagree in many cases as to how it will be spent. As will our fellow countrymen. Let the majority will be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFKvsNixon Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 This again. Norway joined EFTA. They do 80% of their trade with the EU. We're under no obligation to do so. So what your suggesting is that we could stop paying the memberships fees needed to belong to a club, then then stop complying with all the rules associated with being in that club, but at the same time enjoy the benefits that the membership of the club brings? Don't you think that people will see through this sort of claim, and it's this sort of claim that is costing the Brexit campaign it's credibility? Why not be honest, and say at best we are in for a period of unprecedented uncertainty, but any potential pain will be worth it in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 This bothers me too. Is the government (or any other) going to divert any of the savings into things we would like to see, or will it all be wasted/spent on pet projects,expenses etc/disappear? How can we, the ordinary people, know how it's spent. Whoever is in charge will make sure we only hear what they want us to hear... Two options (praise the FPTP system) - Tories remain in power - it all gets thrown at the deficit. Labour forces a new general election (unlikely to happen) because the Tories are ripped apart (possible), it will all get thrown at the new economic crisis, plugging holes left right and centre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 (edited) Yes, and they all pay for the privilege. Consider that the US pays an average just below 3% in tariffs for trading with the EU and that the UK exports around 25 billion £ to the EU monthly, that is a tariff-rate of 750 million per month, It will make all UK products in the EU 3% more expensive, but the UK also imports around 45 billion a month, meaning that the consumer in the UK has to find an extra 1,5 billion a month for those goods. And don't give me that nonsense 'we will just buy it somewhere else' because you know damn well that most of that import is stuff that the UK relies on. It might change over time. But for the first decade that isn't going to change. The other argument I can already see you making up is - we will sign 0% tariffs with other nations. No you won't, and if the UK will, it is to the detriment of the UK because it will be flooded with goods and services as the average cost per unit (product/service) in the UK is far higher than that of potential replacements for the EU. Meaning prices here have to come down dramatically, meaning that those stories you dismiss as scaremongering from economists will become a stark reality. Okay. Once again for anybody who missed it the first time. Remain's experts are prediction a geometric average of 1.8% growth pa if we stay in and 1.6-1.7% growth pa if we leave. With people throwing "billions" around it's important to keep track of that. If the EU want to apply full tariffs and cost us on average 3%, then it seems likely that we will end up doing the same. These things tend to be symmetric. Since they sell us a lot more than we sell them, the UK government shall obviously make money on such an arrangement. They (the EU) will get £1.5 billion/month and we'll get about ~£2billion. That's a profit. If they're stupid enough to want to donate £500million a month to the UK by imposing such arrangements that is. Obviously it's a lot more complicated than that. I'm simply responding to you on your own terms. ---------- Post added 21-06-2016 at 15:00 ---------- Two options (praise the FPTP system) - Tories remain in power - it all gets thrown at the deficit. Labour forces a new general election (unlikely to happen) because the Tories are ripped apart (possible), it will all get thrown at the new economic crisis, plugging holes left right and centre. Remain's preferred experts are predicting a geometric average of 1.8% growth pa if we stay in and 1.6-1.7% growth pa if we leave. ---------- Post added 21-06-2016 at 15:02 ---------- So what your suggesting is that we could stop paying the memberships fees needed to belong to a club, then then stop complying with all the rules associated with being in that club, but at the same time enjoy the benefits that the membership of the club brings? Don't you think that people will see through this sort of claim, and it's this sort of claim that is costing the Brexit campaign it's credibility? Why not be honest, and say at best we are in for a period of unprecedented uncertainty, but any potential pain will be worth it in the long run. Where did you get this nonsense from. No club. Leaving. Will not be in club anymore. Not members. Leaving club. Edited June 21, 2016 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
retep Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Yes, and they all pay for the privilege. Consider that the US pays an average just below 3% in tariffs for trading with the EU and that the UK exports around 25 billion £ to the EU monthly, that is a tariff-rate of 750 million per month, It will make all UK products in the EU 3% more expensive, but the UK also imports around 45 billion a month, meaning that the consumer in the UK has to find an extra 1,5 billion a month for those goods. And don't give me that nonsense 'we will just buy it somewhere else' because you know damn well that most of that import is stuff that the UK relies on. It might change over time. But for the first decade that isn't going to change. The other argument I can already see you making up is - we will sign 0% tariffs with other nations. No you won't, and if the UK will, it is to the detriment of the UK because it will be flooded with goods and services as the average cost per unit (product/service) in the UK is far higher than that of potential replacements for the EU. Meaning prices here have to come down dramatically, meaning that those stories you dismiss as scaremongering from economists will become a stark reality. What would you do if your local supermarket stopped you shopping there would you starve or go somewhere else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 (edited) For the 90th time that's our money. It's not EU money. It's our money. We sent it there, then they wrote "EU money" on half of it, sent that back and kept the rest. It's OUR MONEY. There's no such thing as EU money!. Maybe an independent UK government won't send the universities as much money. Maybe they'll send more. Who knows. That's their right. After all they were elected and therefore have a mandate to decide how to spend taxpayers' money. That money doesnt actually exist as of yet does it? Not 350 million. Not half of that. Not a quarter. It's entirely dependent on governmental income / expenditure. Edited June 21, 2016 by Tomjames change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apelike Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Yes, and they all pay for the privilege. Consider that the US pays an average just below 3% in tariffs for trading with the EU and that the UK exports around 25 billion £ to the EU monthly, that is a tariff-rate of 750 million per month, It will make all UK products in the EU 3% more expensive, but the UK also imports around 45 billion a month, meaning that the consumer in the UK has to find an extra 1,5 billion a month for those goods. Just because the US pays an average 3% tariff for trading with the EU why does it automatically mean the UK would also have to pay the same? The US are also negotiating the TTIP to lower those tariffs so we could do just the same if we leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 (edited) That money doesnt actually exist as of yet does it? Not 350 million. Not half of that. Not a quarter. It's entirely dependent on governmental income. It's pretty consistent. We pay about £13-15billion, they spend about £4billion in the UK. And with the recently joined, poorer members, I can't see it doing anything other than getting worse. i.e. don't count on that £4billion as other member states need it more. In 2020, the rebate is up for re-approval. If it's lost, the bill goes up to £20billion. Edited June 21, 2016 by unbeliever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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