EU Referendum - How will you vote?

[Tomjames]

It's pretty consistent.

We pay about £13-15billion, they spend about £4billion in the UK.

And with the recently joined, poorer members, I can't see it doing anything other than getting worse. i.e. don't count on that £4billion as other member states need it more.

In 2020, the rebate is up for re-approval. If it's lost, the bill goes up to £20billion.

 

It's £8.5 billion or £167 million per week (taking into account rebate and EU contribution).

 

The leave camp have promised £100 million cash boost per week for the NHS in their 'manifesto'.

 

What they are not telling us, is just a 0.5% downgrade in the economy will wipe out that £167 million per week cash injection.

 

OR the government will find the £100 million for the NHS and make cuts elsewhere.

 

Isn't this "cash boost promise" just an outright lie to the public?

[unbeliever]

It's £8.5 billion or £167 million per week (taking into account rebate and EU contribution).

 

The leave camp have promised £100 million cash boost per week for the NHS in their 'manifesto'.

 

What they are not telling us, is just a 0.5% downgrade in the economy will wipe out that £167 million per week cash injection.

 

OR the government will find the £100 million for the NHS and make cuts elsewhere.

 

Isn't this "cash boost promise" just an outright lie to the public?

 

 

Remain's preferred experts are predicting a geometric average of 1.8% growth pa if we stay in and 1.6-1.7% growth pa if we leave.

[Tomjames]

We don't provide the entire EU budget you know.

If we leave and stop contributing, do you think the government is going to divert some of the "saving" into science?

I put saving in quotes because after the economy crashes the government will be worse off, there won't be any saving to divert, we will simply be worse off in net.

 

Considering even the leave side have admitted there will be an economic downturn it's somewhat optimistic to think we will have more money.

 

We know for a fact trade deals take years and it takes 2 years to remove ourselves from the EU.

 

Maybe they will reveal to us when we will actually have this huge cash injection?

[Tomjames]

Remain's preferred experts are predicting a geometric average of 1.8% growth pa if we stay in and 1.6-1.7% growth pa if we leave.

 

So assuming those figures are correct and come true (?), we are losing 0.2% in growth every year if we leave. That correct?

[unbeliever]

So assuming those figures are correct and come true (?), we are losing 0.2% in growth every year if we leave. That correct?

 

That's the worst case, according to Remain's preferred "experts".

Since they can be relied upon to get all matters related to EU<->UK consistently backwards, make of that what you will.

[apelike]

It's £8.5 billion or £167 million per week (taking into account rebate and EU contribution).

 

The leave camp have promised £100 million cash boost per week for the NHS in their 'manifesto'.

 

What they are not telling us, is just a 0.5% downgrade in the economy will wipe out that £167 million per week cash injection.

 

OR the government will find the £100 million for the NHS and make cuts elsewhere.

 

Isn't this "cash boost promise" just an outright lie to the public?

 

No, the lie is assuming that a 0.5% downgrade in the economy would wipe out £167 Million. Economic growth has already fallen almost 0.5% prior to the referendum being decided and has also been downgraded because of Osborne's past overestimation.

[tzijlstra]

Okay. Once again for anybody who missed it the first time. Remain's experts are prediction a geometric average of 1.8% growth pa if we stay in and 1.6-1.7% growth pa if we leave. With people throwing "billions" around it's important to keep track of that.

 

Can I have a source for that, because the FT, which I consider one of the most reliable news sources for economics has this.

 

If the EU want to apply full tariffs and cost us on average 3%, then it seems likely that we will end up doing the same. These things tend to be symmetric.

Since they sell us a lot more than we sell them, the UK government shall obviously make money on such an arrangement.

They (the EU) will get £1.5 billion/month and we'll get about ~£2billion. That's a profit.

 

If they're stupid enough to want to donate £500million a month to the UK by imposing such arrangements that is.

 

Obviously it's a lot more complicated than that. I'm simply responding to you on your own terms.

 

Now you are not, and you know full well that the UK won't 'earn' from increased tariffs, the UK will actually feel increased prices across the board, leading to inflation, leading to a decline in the value of the pound, leading to a potential fiscal vicious circle. The one that Mark Carney has referred to before.

 

Remain's preferred experts are predicting a geometric average of 1.8% growth pa if we stay in and 1.6-1.7% growth pa if we leave.

 

Repeating this ad infinitum without source is not going to make me believe it. It contradicts almost any report I have read before. The degree of certainty of economic impact based on the combined analyses of experts so far suggests a far larger economic impact than .1% per annum.

[Tomjames]

No, the lie is assuming that a 0.5% downgrade in the economy would wipe out £167 Million. Economic growth has already fallen almost 0.5% prior to the referendum being decided and has also been downgraded because of Osborne's past overestimation.

 

I think the best case scenario was another 1 or 2 years austerity, the worst was recession in 2017.

Considering we are 5 years behind schedule and only officially came out of recession in 2012 I'm not sure an out vote is the best thing for the UK economy right now.

[Tomjames]

That's the worst case, according to Remain's preferred "experts".

Since they can be relied upon to get all matters related to EU<->UK consistently backwards, make of that what you will.

 

Have you got a source? I'd like to know who these remain experts are.

 

---------- Post added 21-06-2016 at 15:56 ----------

 

there's a fallback to voting remain. We can push for another referendum should things go tits up.

We won't have that option if we leave.

[unbeliever]

Can I have a source for that, because the FT, which I consider one of the most reliable news sources for economics has this.

 

 

 

Now you are not, and you know full well that the UK won't 'earn' from increased tariffs, the UK will actually feel increased prices across the board, leading to inflation, leading to a decline in the value of the pound, leading to a potential fiscal vicious circle. The one that Mark Carney has referred to before.

 

 

 

Repeating this ad infinitum without source is not going to make me believe it. It contradicts almost any report I have read before. The degree of certainty of economic impact based on the combined analyses of experts so far suggests a far larger economic impact than .1% per annum.

 

 

I've done this already, but okay. Let's start with the CBI:

http://news.cbi.org.uk/news/leaving-eu-would-cause-a-serious-shock-to-uk-economy-new-pwc-analysis/leaving-the-eu-implications-for-the-uk-economy/

Average real UK GDP per capita in 2030 would, however, be around 25% to 28% higher in 2030 than in 2015 in the EU exit scenarios, as compared to an estimated 29% increase with continued EU membership.

 

Using the geometric means:

Worst case Brexit: 1.5% growth pa (1.015^15=1.25)

Best case Brexit: 1.65% growth pa (1.0165^15=1.28)

Remain: 1.7% growth pa. (1.017^15=1.29)

 

Slight difference is down to the fact that I was previously calculating from 2016 and when I re-read it, I realised that they were calculating from 2015. Doesn't change the relationship between the different estimates.

Other have more positive estimates for Brexit, but this is in the context of examining the claims form Remain's preferred "experts".

All this is just modelling, which I don't believe for a second. But it never hurts to quantify your opponents' prophecies of doom.

 

---------- Post added 21-06-2016 at 15:58 ----------

 

Have you got a source? I'd like to know who these remain experts are.

 

---------- Post added 21-06-2016 at 15:56 ----------

 

there's a fallback to voting remain. We can push for another referendum should things go tits up.

We won't have that option if we leave.

 

See above.

 

It is completely implausible to suggest we'll get another shot at a leave referendum any time soon.

Edited June 21, 2016 by unbeliever