Tomjames Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Just back from a very busy polling station, family vote 4 for out. Strange no exit poll so where are these people who are claiming remain will win, such as shortening betting odds getting their info, or do they just exit poll selective polling stations. This would be a strange thing to do as some areas are allegedly more eurosceptic/ europhile than others. The odds are 1/10 (bookies) The polls show a clear remain lead (the polls) The pound is strengthening (the market) 1 might be wrong but all 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eater Sundae Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Just back from a very busy polling station, family vote 4 for out. Strange no exit poll so where are these people who are claiming remain will win, such as shortening betting odds getting their info, or do they just exit poll selective polling stations. This would be a strange thing to do as some areas are allegedly more eurosceptic/ europhile than others. The bookies might have originally set their odds based on polls, but once people start betting then the odds will reflect the bets being placed. More bets, then the odds shorten. I don't think the odds mean anything other than the bookies are making sure they return a profit regardless of which side wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Counted on my social media...95% are voting remain posts. I agree with MobileB the brexiters tend to shout the loudest. ---------- Post added 23-06-2016 at 12:41 ---------- The bookies might have originally set their odds based on polls, but once people start betting then the odds will reflect the bets being placed. More bets, then the odds shorten. I don't think the odds mean anything other than the bookies are making sure they return a profit regardless of which side wins. There's huge bets been dropped from the city apparently. They seem very confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eater Sundae Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 The odds are 1/10 (bookies) The polls show a clear remain lead (the polls) The pound is strengthening (the market) 1 might be wrong but all 3? The strength of the pound and the betting odds are basically the same. They are responding to betting patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 The odds are 1/10 (bookies) The polls show a clear remain lead (the polls) The pound is strengthening (the market) 1 might be wrong but all 3? These things are correlated. You're measuring the same thing 3 times and interpreting it as verification. https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/ 6 polls yesterday. 2 favour remain slightly, 2 favour leave slightly and 2 more favour remain with a bigger margin. Make of that what you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 The strength of the pound and the betting odds are basically the same. They are responding to betting patterns. ? Huge bets are coming from the city, that's the news. ---------- Post added 23-06-2016 at 12:51 ---------- These things are correlated. You're measuring the same thing 3 times and interpreting it as verification. https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/ 6 polls yesterday. 2 favour remain slightly, 2 favour leave slightly and 2 more favour remain with a bigger margin. Make of that what you will. I follow the markets and betting trends closely and it looks clear cut to me. Look at the polls and the differentials between internet and phone votes over time. End of the day believe what you want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 One MP murdered. Two other MPs have received death threats. The mood has been stoked to dangerous levels. If as expected remain polls the most votes I sincerely hope the language used by the leaders on the leave side is responsibly toned. It would be irresponsible to stoke things any further. This country needs to heal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I follow the markets and betting trends closely and it looks clear cut to me. Look at the polls and the differentials between internet and phone votes over time. End of the day believe what you want! It's not a question of believing anything. I made some factual corrections. I agree that remain is more likely to win. We'll probably know in 24 hours anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eater Sundae Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 ? Huge bets are coming from the city, that's the news. Yes, but they don't have any better information than anyone else. It's not as if they have insider knowledge. They are placing bets in bookies and/or on the trading floor. They are basically the same thing. If they are doing this on the back of polls, then all 3 measurements are really the same information displayed in 3 separate formats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 It's not a question of believing anything. I made some factual corrections. I agree that remain is more likely to win. We'll probably know in 24 hours anyway. The market and the bookies are linked? so what? Look if it makes you feel better for a few more hours fine. I'm just giving people the heads up. ---------- Post added 23-06-2016 at 12:57 ---------- Yes, but they don't have any better information than anyone else. It's not as if they have insider knowledge. They are placing bets in bookies and/or on the trading floor. They are basically the same thing. If they are doing this on the back of polls, then all 3 measurements are really the same information displayed in 3 separate formats. I listen to them. They make a lot of money every year betting on outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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