What effect has greece had on your decision to leave euro?

[tzijlstra]

Why would I do that? You want to include the period after the € was introduced but before it unleashed it's inevitable economic nightmare on the member states.

Bit contrived no?

 

The previous year's GDP is the normal measure for the current state of an economy.

 

Also, the €Z crisis is far from over. Even if you can find some figure that looks better for the €Z than the UK, how long do you think it will stay that way?

The ECB are predicting growth of 1.5% for the €Z for 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31750117

The CBI are predicting growth of 2.4% for the UK for 2015 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33043493

 

The UK figure would be much higher except that the CBI don't believe the ECB's projection and the €Z is expected to hold us back.

 

Why would you not want to do that? You prefer your arbitrary figure, I prefer mine. In the end it is all equal - a decline compared to the rest of the world.

[unbeliever]

Why would you not want to do that? You prefer your arbitrary figure, I prefer mine. In the end it is all equal - a decline compared to the rest of the world.

 

I guess we've already made our decisions. If you have alternative figures that you think legitimate, why not post them and link to the reference as I have?

Then any undecideds can look at both our summaries and references and perhaps it will help them decide.

[L00b]

Looks like UK will stand for the egg under the hat,

 

"Hypocrisy of the first order': Outrage as Europe fines UK £642m for poor accounting"

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/590887/Europe-fines-UK-accounting

I guess the EU will be waiting for those £642m a long time, just like the previous £1.7bn it's still waiting for.

 

Meanwhile, a short distance away from the rabid rabble-rousing Europhobic press,

George Osborne has demanded that eurozone countries indemnify the Treasury against any losses if Britain is forced to contribute to the €7bn bridging loan for crisis-hit Greece.

 

As explained earlier, the Commission plans to tap the EU-wide bailout mechanism, the European Financial Stability Mechanism, to meet part of the cost of the bridging loan, putting the UK on the hook for just over 15% of the cost.

 

That breaks the promise made to David Cameron in 2011 that British taxpayers would not be forced to underwrite eurozone bailouts.

 

So the Treasury’s solution is to push for the €1.9bn of profits the European Central Bank has made on Greek bonds to be set aside in an account that could be used to compensate non-euro member countries for any losses.

 

Greek’s embattled Syriza government had previously hoped to tap into that pot of money itself, but it could now allow Britain to drop its objections, and argue that its pledge hadn’t been broken.

 

As a Treasury insider put it: “this would be strengthening that promise, by giving it legal form"

Swings, roundabouts, plus ça change, much ado about nothing <etc.>

 

£0,02? Don't fall for the hype

 

Now then, back to Greece for a moment:

European Commission - Press release

 

A new start for jobs and growth in Greece: Commission mobilises more than €35 billion from the EU budget

 

Brussels, 15 July 2015

 

Two days after an agreement paving the way for a new support programme for Greece, the European Commission revealed plans today to help Greece maximise its use of EU funds. As mandated by the Euro Summit on 12/13 July, this will help mobilise more than €35 billion up to 2020 to support the Greek economy, provided that the conditions agreed upon by the Euro Summit will be met.

 

The Jobs and Growth Plan for Greece is meant to flank the comprehensive set of reforms that could form part of a programme under the European Stability Mechanism to be negotiated in the coming weeks between Greece and its international partners. Both elements – the reforms and the mobilisation of funds for investment and cohesion – are essential preconditions for restoring jobs and growth in Greece and returning the country to prosperity.

 

The Jobs and Growth Plan will help to invest in people and companies in Greece. It is a continuation of the support the Commission has already provided to Greece throughout the crisis, both in terms of financial support and technical assistance.

 

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, said: "Greece has already received more international financing than all of Europe did from the U.S. Marshall Plan after the Second World War. Following Monday's Euro Summit agreement, the European Commission is willing to step this up even further to help Greece unleash a significant economic rebound and to give the proposed reforms the best chance to work: these €35 billion can help make Greece an attractive location for investment and give hope to especially the younger generation. After at times painstaking months of negotiations, we now need to look to the future. This new start for jobs and growth is the Commission's contribution. I trust the European Parliament and Member States will play their part so we can unlock the money swiftly."

 

Valdis Dombrovskis, Vice-President for the Euro and Social Dialogue, said: "The European Commission can mobilise more than €35 billion from EU budget to support growth, jobs and investment in Greece. It can provide much-needed support to help lift the Greek economy at a time of dramatic decline in investment. This support alone will not be enough to ensure a lasting recovery. It needs to be underpinned by fundamental reforms that address long-standing structural weaknesses in the Geek economy."

 

Corina Creţu, Commissioner for Regional Policy, said: "The reforms agreed in the Euro Summit are absolutely necessary for growth and jobs, but must be coupled with ambitious investments. The European Structural and Investment Funds can channel over €20 billion of investments on the ground in 2014-2020, for the benefit of Greece and of the Greek people."

 

As an exceptional measure and in light of the unique situation of Greece, the Commission proposes to improve immediate liquidity so that investments can still be funded in the 2007-2013 programming period. These will include early release of the last 5% of remaining EU payments normally retained until the closure of the programmes and applying a 100% co-financing rate for the 2007-2013 period. This would translate into immediate additional liquidity of some €500 million and a saving for the Greek budget of around €2 billion. This money will be available to immediately resume financing for investments supporting growth and jobs. It is conditional on the Greek authorities ensuring that these additional funds are fully used for the beneficiaries and operations under the programmes. The Commission will also propose to increase the rate of initial pre-financing for programmes for 2014-2020 in Greece by 7 percentage points[1]. This extra pre-financing can make an additional €1 billion available to be used only for the launch of the projects co-financed under the cohesion policy in full compliance with Article 81 (2) of the Common Provision Regulation.

 

Greece has already benefited from preferential treatment: Greek programmes financed with EU funds in 2007-2013 receive a higher proportion of EU financing. Therefore, Greece is required to co-finance less than many other countries via a 10% "top up" of EU co-financing until mid-2016. In many cases, this means that the EU pays for 95% of the total investment cost under the 2007-2013 financing period (as opposed to the maximum of 85% otherwise applicable).

 

In addition, for cohesion policy, provided all conditions are met, the Greek authorities can still continue to be reimbursed up to the regulatory 95% ceiling for eligible expenditure made on 2007-2013 programmes.

 

Today's Communication follows the setting up of a High-Level Group under the leadership of Vice-President Dombrovskis. Together with the Greek authorities, this Group aims to ensure that all the money available from the 2007-2013 programming period is used before it expires at the end of the year, and to help Greece meet the requirements to access all EU Funds available to it in 2014-2020.

 

Greece will also continue to benefit from technical support for reforms and implementation from the Commission's new Structural Reform Support Service, which began its work on 1 July and builds on the valuable experience of the Task Force for Greece and other technical assistance provided to Member States.

 

The Investment Plan for Europe can play a crucial role for jobs and growth in Greece. The new European Fund for Strategic Investment (EFSI) will benefit commercially viable investment projects in Greece. The new European Investment Advisory Hub will provide targeted outreach activities and assistance to help investors, project promoters, authorities and SMEs to construct projects that are likely to be eligible for EFSI-financing. Assistance will also be available on how to combine EFSI-financing with the EU's Structural and Investment Fund.

 

Background

 

On the basis of proposals made by President Juncker, the Euro Summit of 12 July 2015 asked the Commission to help support job and growth creation in Greece in the next three to five years. It tasked the Commission to "work closely with the Greek authorities to mobilise up to €35 billion (under various EU programmes) to fund investment and economic activity, including in SMEs”.

 

EU funding has already been the primary source of public investment in Greece during the crisis. For example, the Athens metro, the General Hospital in Katerini, the Acropolis museum and the district heating system of Kozani were all financed largely from the EU budget. The more than €35 billion that Greece could receive from the 2014-2020 programming period would consist of €20 billion from the European Structural and Investment Funds as well as €15 billion from Agricultural Funds. They can flow into investment, fighting unemployment, poverty and poor social conditions, research and education as well as infrastructure. The first payments from these EU funds in 2014 and 2015 already amount to €4.4 billion

 

The use of EU funds has not been a given for Greece lately. In recent months, tight financing conditions and uncertainty about the economic situation have disrupted investment plans and put into question the ability of the Greek authorities to make good and full use of available EU funding.

 

A significant number of projects are currently at risk of not being completed. Furthermore, if the Greek authorities do not make full use of EU funding still available under the 2007-2013 financing period by the end of this year, they will miss out on roughly €2 billion. Greece must have basic legal requirements in place, such as respecting EU rules, sound financial management of the funds and accounting, in order to benefit from EU funding.

(source)

 

Well, what can I say? What an evil, eeevil lot those EU bar stewards are!

 

Edited July 15, 2015 by L00b

[retep]

I guess the EU will be waiting for those £642m a long time, just like the previous £1.7bn it's still waiting for.

 

Nope no waiting, all smoke and mirrors,

 

 

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-11-07/has-britain-really-halved-its-eu-bill-its-hard-to-tell/

[L00b]

Nope no waiting, all smoke and mirrors.

You link has no new or different information compared to the one I posted (which already referenced the potential halving of that fine), and says nothing at all about any payment having been made...so I'm not really sure what your 'no waiting, all smoke and mirrors' point is?

 

I'd certainly agreed that this "EU slaps UK, UK slaps EU" tit-for-tat is all smoke and mirrors indeed, since no (fine-) money changes hands in the end - which was my point.

 

Ergo, not a valid argument for Eurosceptics, anymore than it could be a valid argument for Europhiles: it's rhetorical politicking that's just embarrassing for both parties.

[retep]

You link has no new or different information compared to the one I posted (which already referenced the potential halving of that fine), and says nothing at all about any payment having been made...so I'm not really sure what your 'no waiting, all smoke and mirrors' point is?

 

I'd certainly agreed that this "EU slaps UK, UK slaps EU" tit-for-tat is all smoke and mirrors indeed, since no (fine-) money changes hands in the end - which was my point.

 

Ergo, not a valid argument for Eurosceptics, anymore than it could be a valid argument for Europhiles: it's rhetorical politicking that's just embarrassing for both parties.

 

Perhaps you can provide a link to no money changing hands.

[L00b]

Perhaps you can provide a link to no money changing hands.

Nope, since logic alone will tell you that you can't prove a negative.

 

How about you provide a link to fines money changing hands instead?

[retep]

Nope, since logic alone will tell you that you can't prove a negative.

 

How about you provide a link to fines money changing hands instead?

So as usual you're talking rubbish.

[unbeliever]

So as usual you're talking rubbish.

 

I'm not sure who's right here, but I do not that it is all but impossible to prove a negative.

[retep]

I'm not sure who's right here, but I do not that it is all but impossible to prove a negative.

 

Are you saying that the UK has not paid up, I think the EU would've kicked up a stink by now, milking the UK has become a hobby of theirs, they say jump and our gov says how high.