Am I still allowed to question climate change?

[erebus]

Hi,

 

For those that think climate change is a joke and just love to play with the evidence, so if some said the world is getting hotter, or colder they will automatically contradict for the sake of having fun.

 

Well why not just think about the climate here in Sheffield over your lifetime. In the last 14 years last winter was the first winter I have experienced. Snow when it happens lasts hours before its gone, while traffic comes magically to a halt.

 

14 years ago the snow lasted 4 days before it went, till last year.

 

Winters used to be like it was last year. So in 14 years one proper winter here in Sheffield.

 

Does one sunny day not a summer make suggest anything?

 

From here in Sheffield it does suggest the climate has changed here, or maybe I missed something, and others experience something rather different??????

[The PIT]

You've got to remember that fourteen years is too small a period as is 100 yrs or a thousand years in terms of this planet.

 

The climate varies and has been warmer and also a lot colder in the past.

 

At the moment climate change or whatever you wish to name it is politically driven so everything has to be taken with a little pinch of salt.

 

The climate is changing and very likely to be mostly natural with a bit of man made interference. The good side of climate scaremongering is that it will get us to clean up our act which isn't a bad idea.

[JIbbo]

If it were just the daily red tops that were reporting this issue, we could easily dismiss it. But it's not. There are many independent, non "media" people whose agenda is not to sell newspapers. There are many scientists with international reputations who conclude that from the trends being observed, our future is going to be very different. They'll not agree on tomorrows's weather, but they will agree that over time average temperatures will rise and even small increases have a massive impact on life on land and in the sea. http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/the-dead-sea-global-warming-blamed-for-40-per-cent-decline-in-the-oceans-phytoplankton-2038074.html

 

 

 

You agree there is a mountain of evidence then?

 

We do our little bit. I know it's not enough. I guess I'm still really hoping the predictions of catastrophe are all wrong and that somebody will come along soon and prove that we don't need to change our behaviour any more than we have already.

 

I invite you to keep trying ...

 

 

 

??? believe in conspiracy theories?

 

You're the one saying this is all just a scare story implying that there's some great conspiracy between all the world's scientists and media organisations ...

 

Anyway, going back to a greenhouse ... do you know how it works?

 

 

 

Any one you choose!

 

You don't really have to explain it. I'm presuming you do know. I'm also presuming you know what a greenhouse gas is. You may even know that Methane is a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 and that even small increases in sea temperature may release mass amounts of it which are currently locked up in the Siberian perma frost and methyl hydrates in the sea.

 

There's any number of ways in which the current trends could cause a tipping point to be crossed. Our present stable climate could change very fast and that will lead to "a catastrophe of biblical proportions".

 

Mass extintions based on climate change have happened before. The next mass extintion could be triggered by human behaviour.

 

One final thought based on your earlier comment ...

 

 

 

It's already begun - the decline of coral and phytoplankton in the sea are indicators. Small changes have knock on effects and massive consequences. http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/the-dead-sea-global-warming-blamed-for-40-per-cent-decline-in-the-oceans-phytoplankton-2038074.html

 

From the above ... "If this holds up, something really serious is underway and has been underway for decades. I've been trying to think of a biological change that's bigger than this and I can't think of one," said marine biologist Boris Worm of Canada's Dalhousie University in Halifax, Nova Scotia.

 

Ahhh that lovely word of doubt ... if ...

 

OK, I don't have to change yet! I can start thinking about my next ski hol ... or can I ???

Maybe my change of behaviour won't be a choice after all?

 

Ski Resorts across europe have had RECORD 2010 years with snow starting earlier and lasting FAR longer than normal this past winter.

 

Hell the scottish resorts this season have had their best year for twenty years.

 

The 2005 predictions have been seriously wrong.

the 2009/2010 winter was one of the coldest in the past 20 years.

 

Also the southern hemispehers current winter is seriously cold this year

 

http://en.mercopress.com/2010/08/05/snow-in-brazil-below-zero-celsius-in-the-river-plate-and-tropical-fish-frozen

 

Can you image the headlines if "Millions of fish" were dying due to global warming, it would be on the front newspapers of every western newspaper, but as its freezing weather, not a peep !

[JIbbo]

Hi,

 

For those that think climate change is a joke and just love to play with the evidence, so if some said the world is getting hotter, or colder they will automatically contradict for the sake of having fun.

 

Well why not just think about the climate here in Sheffield over your lifetime. In the last 14 years last winter was the first winter I have experienced. Snow when it happens lasts hours before its gone, while traffic comes magically to a halt.

 

14 years ago the snow lasted 4 days before it went, till last year.

 

Winters used to be like it was last year. So in 14 years one proper winter here in Sheffield.

 

Does one sunny day not a summer make suggest anything?

 

From here in Sheffield it does suggest the climate has changed here, or maybe I missed something, and others experience something rather different??????

 

It also happens that a global climatic system over the past number of years called the PDO has been in a 'warm' phase, wather than a cold one, at the oment a very cold la-nina is building in the pacific.

 

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

 

It takes time for global weather to match the pdo phases, but you can almost link the above pdo phases to 'record' temperatures, the pdo is now weakening, apart from a few spikes and heading into 1960,70's style cold phase.

 

Last winter wasn't a one off and this winters will be even worse imho.

[JIbbo]

For the seriously technical people out there this paper is a good read.

 

http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/kola-temperature-reconstruction-shows-solar-correlation-refutes-the-hockey-stick/

 

This is a complete 'Tree ring Analysis' using the same techniques that brought the infamous 'Hockey Stick' Graph now widly shown to be rubbish.

 

http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/kola-temperature-reconstruction-shows-solar-correlation-refutes-the-hockey-stick/

 

It shows how " Unprecidented warming" is quite clearly within the bounds of normal climatic variability, and shows the links between teh sun and climate.

 

This is the temperature record, reconstructed over the past 2000 years.

 

http://pgosselin.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/spencer1.jpg

[spinac]

Ski Resorts across europe have had RECORD 2010 years with snow starting earlier and lasting FAR longer than normal this past winter.

 

Hell the scottish resorts this season have had their best year for twenty years.

 

Excellent! I hope this is the beginning of a reversal of the general trend. I'll keep my fingers crossed, but concerns remain ...

 

"Ski property faces meltdown as global warming chills the market"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2010/jan/17/global-warming-threat-britons-ski-property-alps

The Observer, Sunday 17 January 2010

 

"Recent weeks have seen huge snowfalls in the UK, on mainland Europe and across North America, but research by Unesco's environment programme suggests long-term global warming will push the snowline up worldwide in years to come."

[spinac]

Now, does anyone know where I can get a reasonably accurate weather prediction because so far all sources are miles out!

 

Miles out? Can you give examples where the forecasts have been miles out? Oh, and you'll not be taken seriously if you continue to connect short term local weather predictions with long term global climate change.

Edited August 8, 2010 by spinac

[retep]

Miles out? Can you give examples where the forecasts have been miles out? Oh, and you'll not be taken seriously if you continue to connect short term local weather predictions with long term climate change.

 

Michael Fish.

[Wildcat]

For the seriously technical people out there this paper is a good read.

 

http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/kola-temperature-reconstruction-shows-solar-correlation-refutes-the-hockey-stick/

 

This is a complete 'Tree ring Analysis' using the same techniques that brought the infamous 'Hockey Stick' Graph now widly shown to be rubbish.

 

http://pgosselin.wordpress.com/2010/08/07/kola-temperature-reconstruction-shows-solar-correlation-refutes-the-hockey-stick/

 

It shows how " Unprecidented warming" is quite clearly within the bounds of normal climatic variability, and shows the links between teh sun and climate.

 

This is the temperature record, reconstructed over the past 2000 years.

 

http://pgosselin.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/spencer1.jpg

 

Jibbo, the big question relating to those links is why does Roy Spencer quote research that was withdrawn by its author for being flawed?

 

I know Yahoo questions isn't the best source but it does explain it pretty well.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20100110152407AAhcJzx

 

In particular:

After he consulted a statistician, Loehle submitted a revised version of the paper which concluded the MWP was about 0.1°C warmer than 1935, and thus roughly 0.5°C colder than today

 

http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/jhm/AGW/Loehle/SupplementaryInfo.pdf

 

 

If you want a more detailed answer there are discussions of the flaws of Loehle 2007 here:

http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/anti-agw-papers-debunked/

Edited August 8, 2010 by Wildcat

[spinac]

Michael Fish.

 

"Ironically, earlier forecasts as far back as the preceding weekend had correctly identified that gale force winds would affect Southern England. However, later runs of the model had indicated a more southerly track for the low pressure system, incorrectly indicating that the strongest winds would be confined to Northern and Central France. The French meteorological office used a different computer weather model to the British, and the French model proved more accurate in predicting the severity of the storm in the Channel."

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

 

So, was Fish's forecast "miles out"? Maybe.

 

When a weather forecaster says "don't worry", should we?

 

When the climate scientists say "do worry" and the non-experts say "don't worry, it's all media hype, a conspiracy to scare us and buy newspapers", who should we pay attention to?

 

Q. Are the Russian wildfires evidence of anything? http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/gallery/2010/08/05/GA2010080505098.html

 

A. No. But an increasing frequency of such events cannot be ignored.