Am I still allowed to question climate change?

[Stormy]

Slightly changing the direction of this thread, why did the Met Office predict a "warmer than average winter" when clearly we are seeing record low temperatures and snowfall levels? I guess its impossible to predict the weather accurately, especially under political pressure to predict such nonsense such as "Barbeque summers" and "warmer than average winters." But wait, someone DID predict this weather! Piers Corbyn of Weather Action whom I spoke about a few months ago on this very thread. Yet again he has beaten the government scientists and their computer models at their own game. No wonder farmers and fishermen have subscribed to his long range forecasts instead of looking at the rubbish the state forcaster puts out. And he says its going to get worse........

The Met office seriously needs to up its game.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8213058/The-man-who-repeatedly-beats-the-Met-Office-at-its-own-game.html

Edited December 20, 2010 by Stormy

[spinac]

Ah, hello Father Dougal II

 

It won't be the last time that short-medium weather forecasts are wrong. Your guy is 85% correct? Good, but not perfect either!

 

But what about the climate, Father Dougal? Is your money on green and blue, or yellow and orange? Which way is the world headed in the next 10-50 years?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/long-range/

 

A strong La Niña event is now well established, bringing lower than average temperatures to the tropical Pacific Ocean in November. Despite this, the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as much of the Southern Hemisphere oceans, were warmer than average. Along with higher than normal temperatures over much of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, this is contributing to near-record global mean temperature.

 

One of the few large land areas that was colder than average in November was Western Europe and Scandinavia, due to the development of strong atmospheric ‘blocking’ over Europe in the second half of the month. This type of weather pattern is associated with easterly winds in late autumn and winter, bringing cold air westwards from continental Eurasia. The other main region of cooler than average temperatures, in western North America, was associated with the Pacific La Niña conditions.

[Stormy]

Spinac, I shall ignore your childish name calling which warmists so often infect the debate with by responding saying quite simply that I trust the forcasts from WeatherAction far more than the rubbish which the Met Office puts out. Therefore I trust that their main man Piers knows what he is talking about. As for the next 10 to 50 years nobody can say for sure which is why spending billions ruining our economy on something which we do not fully understand is madness. Look at this analysis of Chris Huhnes energy policy: http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/12/dark-and-cold-britain.html

 

That, then, is to be the nub of Huhne's "seismic shift". By a complex new system of regulations, including what in effect will be a tax of £27 a ton on CO2 emissions, the government aims to increase the cost of conventionally-produced electricity. By this means, renewables will become "competitive" with conventional power.

 

Even though this is barking mad, it is by no means the full extent of the horror. In addition, it will in effect make it impossible to renew the coal-fired capacity which is to be knocked out in the next few years by the EU's Large Combustion Plant Directive. There is, however, to be a hidden nuclear subsidy, which the government describes as "a credible alternative that could enable the electricity sector to meet the government’s decarbonisation and security of supply objectives."

 

Since the EU does not count carbon-free nuclear power as "renewable", we are still uncertain whether this will fall foul of its ban on state aid, although the government is also talking about a "low carbon obligation" as a means of giving nuclear generators a premium price. Again, there are no indications as to whether this would be allowable under EU law.

 

With all that, Huhne is assuring us that there will be only a modest rise of £160 a year in the average household energy bill, the effect of his plan in the long run being to make electricity cheaper than if he had not intervened. This is supported by a series of incomprehensible figures which, Booker remarks, are so riddled with wishful thinking and contradictions are these proposals that one scarcely knows where to begin.

 

"For a start, even if we could hope to build enough windmills to provide, say, 25 percent of our electricity (10 times the current proportion and still less than the EU renewables requirement), this would require not the 10,000 turbines the Government talks of, but more like 25,000, costing well over £200 billion. Then there could be another £100 billion to connect them up to the grid.

 

At least the Government admits for the first time that the wind doesn't always blow; so it proposes a Capacity Mechanism to subsidise the building of dozens of gas fired power stations, to be kept running all the time, emitting CO2, just to provide instant back-up for when the wind drops.

 

More than once on these recent cold, windless days, the contribution of wind to our electricity needs has been as low as 0.1 per cent – so the back-up to all those turbines will cost billions more, doing much to negate any CO2 savings from the turbines when they work. It does not take long to estimate that the capital cost of Huhne's new energy policy could well be more than £300 billion over 10 years, or £30 billion a year. Since the total wholesale cost of the electricity we used last year was only around £19 billion, this alone would be well on the way to tripling our bills by 2020.

 

Thus, when Cameron talks of wanting to replace our "clapped out" power supplies, what he should have had in mind was the need to meet the terrifying shortfall due in a few years time when we lose those older nuclear and coal-fired power stations. The latter currently supply 40 percent of our needs and sometimes slightly more.

 

In a sane world, the government would be planning to get that infrastructure replaced as a matter of the highest national priority, at a cost of around £100 billion. Instead, it puts forward an incoherent farrago of policies which, even if they could be put into practice, would cost three times as much. Then, sneakily, they have to be paid for by all of us through our already soaring energy bills which are and will increasingly be padded by undeclared taxes and levies."

 

If that wasn't bad enough, people are dying in accidents because of the head in the sand approach to cold weather which is directly thanks to the idiotic predictions of the met office saying we will have a warmer than average winter. The country has ground to a halt because we didnt invest enough in the railways, at airports and on our roads and now the economy suffers. Next year we should listen to what the MO says and then prepare for the exact opposite.

Edited December 20, 2010 by Stormy

[JIbbo]

Ah, hello Father Dougal II

 

It won't be the last time that short-medium weather forecasts are wrong. Your guy is 85% correct? Good, but not perfect either!

 

But what about the climate, Father Dougal? Is your money on green and blue, or yellow and orange? Which way is the world headed in the next 10-50 years?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/long-range/

 

A strong La Niña event is now well established, bringing lower than average temperatures to the tropical Pacific Ocean in November. Despite this, the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as much of the Southern Hemisphere oceans, were warmer than average. Along with higher than normal temperatures over much of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, this is contributing to near-record global mean temperature.

 

One of the few large land areas that was colder than average in November was Western Europe and Scandinavia, due to the development of strong atmospheric ‘blocking’ over Europe in the second half of the month. This type of weather pattern is associated with easterly winds in late autumn and winter, bringing cold air westwards from continental Eurasia. The other main region of cooler than average temperatures, in western North America, was associated with the Pacific La Niña conditions.

edited / edits

Edited December 20, 2010 by JIbbo

[convert]

Ah, hello Father Dougal II

 

It won't be the last time that short-medium weather forecasts are wrong. Your guy is 85% correct? Good, but not perfect either!

 

But what about the climate, Father Dougal? Is your money on green and blue, or yellow and orange? Which way is the world headed in the next 10-50 years?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/science/specialist/long-range/

 

A strong La Niña event is now well established, bringing lower than average temperatures to the tropical Pacific Ocean in November. Despite this, the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, as well as much of the Southern Hemisphere oceans, were warmer than average. Along with higher than normal temperatures over much of Asia, Africa, and the Americas, this is contributing to near-record global mean temperature.

 

One of the few large land areas that was colder than average in November was Western Europe and Scandinavia, due to the development of strong atmospheric ‘blocking’ over Europe in the second half of the month. This type of weather pattern is associated with easterly winds in late autumn and winter, bringing cold air westwards from continental Eurasia. The other main region of cooler than average temperatures, in western North America, was associated with the Pacific La Niña conditions.

 

Don't confuse climate with weather old chap.

 

Oh, sorry, you warmists are allowed to do that aren't you, just as they've done over at climate central.

 

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/17/climate-central-confuses-weather-and-climate-you-help-write-the-rebuttal/#more-29589

[spinac]

Don't confuse climate with weather old chap.

 

Didn't. Get's on with life ...

[BritPat]

Thank whatever God(s) if any that you believe in for this marvellous Global Warming.

Europe from Ireland to Russia has its roads snow bound its rail systems on a go slow and its airports at a stand still.

 

The chaos is spilling over to the US Australia the Med and Asia because flights can't leave the nice warm sunny regions unless they have a landing slot in the regions that are blessed with this Globally Warmed snow and ice.

 

Imagine how chilly it would be without the Global Warming

 

India and China need to declare a moratorium on windymills and to start burning gas and coal on the hurry up

 

I know it's weather before the warmists set upon me with their knives manufactured using Windymill and Tidal energy sources

[Wildcat]

Slightly changing the direction of this thread, why did the Met Office predict a "warmer than average winter" when clearly we are seeing record low temperatures and snowfall levels? I guess its impossible to predict the weather accurately, especially under political pressure to predict such nonsense such as "Barbeque summers" and "warmer than average winters." But wait, someone DID predict this weather! Piers Corbyn of Weather Action whom I spoke about a few months ago on this very thread. Yet again he has beaten the government scientists and their computer models at their own game. No wonder farmers and fishermen have subscribed to his long range forecasts instead of looking at the rubbish the state forcaster puts out. And he says its going to get worse........

The Met office seriously needs to up its game.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8213058/The-man-who-repeatedly-beats-the-Met-Office-at-its-own-game.html

 

It is impossible for anyone to assess Corbyn now he has a ban on anyone reporting his predictions without his permission. A ban he put in place 3 years ago when he predicted a cold winter and we had the fifth warmest in the century.

 

See here for an assessment of his predictions up until the ban was put in place:

 

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/search?q=Piers+Corbyn

 

If Corbyn is so good why does he get it wrong so often and if he is confident in long range predictions why doesn't he take James Annan up on his bet? Could it be because Corbyn's system is about as accurate as a horoscope?

[retep]

It is impossible for anyone to assess Corbyn now he has a ban on anyone reporting his predictions without his permission. A ban he put in place 3 years ago when he predicted a cold winter and we had the fifth warmest in the century.

 

See here for an assessment of his predictions up until the ban was put in place:

 

http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/search?q=Piers+Corbyn

 

If Corbyn is so good why does he get it wrong so often and if he is confident in long range predictions why doesn't he take James Annan up on his bet? Could it be because Corbyn's system is about as accurate as a horoscope?

 

Are you scraping the barrel wiki.

 

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/10/29/corbyn/

[Wildcat]

Are you scraping the barrel wiki.

 

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/10/29/corbyn/

 

It seems to me that it is you that is scraping the bottom of the barrel when you are knowingly using a source that you know cannot be trusted to report Climate change papers fairly.

 

Compare from your article:

 

It now appears, however, that the previous/current state of climate science may simply have been wrong and that there's really no need to get in an immediate flap.

 

With what the scientist said:

 

Bounoua stressed that while the model's results showed a negative feedback, it is not a strong enough response to alter the global warming trend that is expected.

 

"This feedback slows but does not alleviate the projected warming,"

 

Where I explained to you the Register's deceipt just a few pages ago:

 

http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showthread.php?p=7021930&highlight=register#post7021930

 

and again here:

 

http://www.sheffieldforum.co.uk/showpost.php?p=7028625&postcount=2234

 

Citing the register on a Climate Change issue when you know it has been misleading before really is scraping the barrel.

Edited December 21, 2010 by Wildcat