dutch Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Qatar measured its lowest ever temperature in history. 1.5 Celsius Feb. 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin-H Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Qatar measured its lowest ever temperature in history. 1.5 Celsius Feb. 5th. And? When did Qatar start measuring daily temperatures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Qatar measured its lowest ever temperature in history. 1.5 Celsius Feb. 5th. Isnt that called weather? Climate change is global. ---------- Post added 07-02-2017 at 18:21 ---------- and? When did qatar start measuring daily temperatures... 1964 ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Are they not doing well? No model can be expected to be exact, and the climate has been warming by an amount within the range of model predictions. Since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade, within the range of model projections of about 0.10 to 0.35°C per decade. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/mar/27/climate-change-model-global-warming https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/oct/01/ipcc-global-warming-projections-accurate https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/jul/31/climate-models-are-even-more-accurate-than-you-thought The new research [from 2013] also found that, compared to the forecast, the early years of the new millennium were somewhat warmer than expected. More recently the temperature has matched the level forecasted very closely, but the relative slow-down in warming since the early years of the early 2000s has caused many commentators to assume that warming is now less severe than predicted. The paper shows this is not true. Allen said: "I think it's interesting because so many people think that recent years have been unexpectedly cool. In fact, what we found was that a few years around the turn of the millennium were slightly warmer than forecast, and that temperatures have now reverted to what we were predicting back in the 1990s." He added: "Of course, we should expect fluctuations around the overall warming trend in global mean temperatures (and even more so in British weather!), but the success of these early forecasts suggests the basic understanding of human-induced climate change on which they were based is supported by subsequent observations." My understanding is that the noughties data are rather hard to reconcile with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin-H Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Isnt that called weather? Climate change is global. ---------- Post added 07-02-2017 at 18:21 ---------- 1964 ........... I believe 1964 was the date of the previous record for the coldest temperature, not when daily temperatures were first recorded, however I'm sure you'll agree that the point I was making (that saying something is the hottest or coldest in history is rather meaningless without knowing when the 'history' of recording temperatures started) remains. The UK has the longest record of daily temperatures in the world, dating from 1772, and I would imagine the records of Qatar started much more recently than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 My understanding is that the noughties data are rather hard to reconcile with the models. "the noughties data" is hard to reconcile with the continuous increase in sea levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robin-H Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 My understanding is that the noughties data are rather hard to reconcile with the models. I think the second article I posted covers that. The slow warming in the noughties seems to only be slow because of the very warm year shortly preceding it (due to El Nino), thus making the preceding warming seem more rapid and the subsequent warming slow by comparison. The general and long term trend is in line with the models. Most claims that the IPCC models have failed are based on surface temperature changes over the past 15 years (1998–2012). During that period, temperatures have risen about 50 percent more slowly than the multi-model average, but have remained within the range of individual model simulation runs. However, 1998 represented an abnormally hot year at the Earth's surface due to one of the strongest El Niño events of the 20th century. Thus it represents a poor choice of a starting date to analyze the surface warming trend. For example, we can select a different 15-year period, 1992–2006, and find a surface warming trend nearly 50 percent faster than the multi-model average. In short, if David Rose wasn't declaring that global surface warming was accelerating out of control in 2006, then he has no business declaring that global surface warming has 'paused' in 2013. Both statements are equally wrong, based on cherry picking noisy short-term data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 "the noughties data" is hard to reconcile with the continuous increase in sea levels. Do you have datra for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 Do you have datra for that It depends what you mean by data, during the 'pause', sea levels continued to rise. The graph is not constant as some would think it should be. http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Arctor Posted February 7, 2017 Share Posted February 7, 2017 It depends what you mean by data, during the 'pause', sea levels continued to rise. The graph is not constant as some would think it should be. http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ Can sea levels rise due to anything other than average temperature rise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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