What does it mean to "believe in climate change"?

[unbeliever]

I think we both agree that continuing this fruitless discussion is pointless. I would however just like to post a number of links to reports and organisations that clearly show what I, and others, are saying is indeed what has been happening on the ground. The lives of the poorest in the world are, by practically any measure you care to look into, getting better.

 

Indeed the articles you yourself have posted have said that. I do not expect you to read them, indeed you have shown yourself on numerous occasions not to be able to take in information when presented to you. I am merely posting them incase anybody else following this discussion would like some of the sources for the claims I have made.

 

INFANT MORTALITY

 

One of the biggest things we can look into when assessing quality of life is infant mortality. Things are bad when children die young. It indicates there is a lack of health care, such as access to vaccinations, access to doctors and hospitals, a lack of food, or a lack of access to clean water, amongst other things. It is usually defined as the number babies who die before they reach the age of one.

 

In the book Getting Better, by Charles Kenny it is shown that the global infant mortality (based on available data) in 1900 was 19.5%. That is 19.5% of children would die before they reached the age of one. In reality, the figure is likely to be much higher, as that was only based on the more developed countries. Indeed the average for the USA, at the time one of the most developed countries in the world, was 16% in 1900.

 

The global figure for 2012 was 3.69%. This is due to better access to vaccinations and antibiotics, increased food supplies and distribution, better nutrition, safer water supplies, and improved sanitation.

 

http://charleskenny.blogs.com/weblog/2009/06/the-success-of-development.html

 

To take some more specific and more recent example of change..

 

In 1990, out of 1000 live births, 197 children would die before they reached the age of 5 in West and Central Africa. By 2013 that had dropped to 109. In Sub Saharan Africa the drop has been from 179 to 92. Indeed, the child mortality rates have dropped, excluding in war zones, for every single region on earth.

 

https://www.gatesnotes.com/2015-Annual-Letter

 

http://www.gatesfoundation.org/Who-We-Are/Resources-and-Media/Annual-Letters-List/Annual-Letter-2014

 

Indeed, by 2035 - it is estimated that there will be practically nowhere on earth that has a higher infant mortality rate than the USA did in 1980.

 

DECLINE IN EXTREME POVERTY

 

I have already posted the graph showing the tremendous decline in extreme poverty.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-in-extreme-poverty-absolute

 

You have to ask yourself why is this? Why are the number of people living in extreme poverty declining when the overall population is increasing so rapidly. I would posit it is because of improved access to healthcare, rising incomes, better access to food, less famine, better access to education, better access to clean water..

 

ACCESS TO EDUCATION

 

In 1900, global literacy rates were around 10%. By 2013 that had increased to 84% and they continue to improve.

http://www.unesco.org/education/GMR2006/full/chapt8_eng.pdf

 

The literacy gap has decreased from 14.8% in 1990 in Sub Saharan Africa to 11.4% today. It has dropped in East Asia and the Pacific from 5% in 1990 to 0.1% today. 0.1%

 

That is because there is much better access to education than there was in the past. 35% of the people on earth have access to the internet, and that is growing every year.

 

MOST PEACEFUL TIME IN HISTORY

 

People tend to have a low quality of life when they are surround by war. It may not seem it, but we are actually living through the most peaceful time in history.

 

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/12/the_world_is_not_falling_apart_the_trend_lines_reveal_an_increasingly_peaceful.html

 

https://ourworldindata.org/slides/war-and-violence/#/title-slide (really worth a look).

 

INCOMES OF THE POOREST ARE RISING

 

Yes, and perhaps more shocking - the world is actually becoming MORE equal. This is a long term trend, and there may be bumps on the road, but the income gap between rich and poor countries is narrowing. There may be some very very rich people who are absorbing a lot of extra wealth, but that does not change the overall trend. I suggest anyone who is interested to take a look at this, as it presents and explains the data very clearly.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/slides/world-poverty/#/declining-world-poverty-1820-2015-step2

 

Indeed, it is the poorest countries that are economically growing the fastest. The country with the fastest growing economy in the world? ETHIOPIA. The GDP per capita (adjusted for inflation) is growing in practically every single country on earth.

 

SUMMARY

 

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Yes, there are still billions of people living on earth that are struggling in abject poverty. Yes, there are still some huge challenges that need to be faced, but things are improving. Things are improving more rapidly then they ever have before, and it is the poorest people on earth who have the most to benefit from this.

 

For further reading, I suggest the following:

 

http://www.earthdash.org/more_info_screen/longtermtrends.html

 

The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley

 

Abundance by Peter Diamandis

 

Understanding The Science for Tomorrow: Myth vs. Reality by Jeffrey Grossman

 

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

 

 

Thanks for going to so much trouble to prove the blindingly obvious. The only question now is will your thorough and conclusive research be accepted, silently ignored or openly ignored. My guess would be that we shan't hear from Petminder on this matter for a while, which I suggest you call a win.

[Robin-H]

Thanks for going to so much trouble to prove the blindingly obvious. The only question now is will your thorough and conclusive research be accepted, silently ignored or openly ignored. My guess would be that we shan't hear from Petminder on this matter for a while, which I suggest you call a win.

 

I don't think I'll change Petminder's mind - like I said they have demonstrated they are unable to take in information that is presented to them. No doubt they'll try to counter with some cherry picked statistic, or some headline from an article they didn't read. I shan't be bothering to engage them in debate anymore.

 

I just wanted to show some facts and figures in case anyone else had been following this debate and wanted some more information.

[Petminder]

I think we both agree that continuing this fruitless discussion is pointless. I would however just like to post a number of links to reports and organisations that clearly show what I, and others, are saying is indeed what has been happening on the ground. The lives of the poorest in the world are, by practically any measure you care to look into, getting better.

 

Indeed the articles you yourself have posted have said that. I do not expect you to read them, indeed you have shown yourself on numerous occasions not to be able to take in information when presented to you. I am merely posting them incase anybody else following this discussion would like some of the sources for the claims I have made.

 

INFANT MORTALITY

 

One of the biggest things we can look into when assessing quality of life is infant mortality. Things are bad when children die young. It indicates there is a lack of health care, such as access to vaccinations, access to doctors and hospitals, a lack of food, or a lack of access to clean water, amongst other things. It is usually defined as the number babies who die before they reach the age of one.

 

In the book Getting Better, by Charles Kenny it is shown that the global infant mortality (based on available data) in 1900 was 19.5%. That is 19.5% of children would die before they reached the age of one. In reality, the figure is likely to be much higher, as that was only based on the more developed countries. Indeed the average for the USA, at the time one of the most developed countries in the world, was 16% in 1900.

 

The global figure for 2012 was 3.69%. This is due to better access to vaccinations and antibiotics, increased food supplies and distribution, better nutrition, safer water supplies, and improved sanitation.

 

http://charleskenny.blogs.com/weblog/2009/06/the-success-of-development.html

 

To take some more specific and more recent example of change..

 

In 1990, out of 1000 live births, 197 children would die before they reached the age of 5 in West and Central Africa. By 2013 that had dropped to 109. In Sub Saharan Africa the drop has been from 179 to 92. Indeed, the child mortality rates have dropped, excluding in war zones, for every single region on earth.

 

https://www.gatesnotes.com/2015-Annual-Letter

 

http://www.gatesfoundation.org/Who-We-Are/Resources-and-Media/Annual-Letters-List/Annual-Letter-2014

 

Indeed, by 2035 - it is estimated that there will be practically nowhere on earth that has a higher infant mortality rate than the USA did in 1980.

 

DECLINE IN EXTREME POVERTY

 

I have already posted the graph showing the tremendous decline in extreme poverty.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-population-in-extreme-poverty-absolute

 

You have to ask yourself why is this? Why are the number of people living in extreme poverty declining when the overall population is increasing so rapidly. I would posit it is because of improved access to healthcare, rising incomes, better access to food, less famine, better access to education, better access to clean water..

 

ACCESS TO EDUCATION

 

In 1900, global literacy rates were around 10%. By 2013 that had increased to 84% and they continue to improve.

http://www.unesco.org/education/GMR2006/full/chapt8_eng.pdf

 

The literacy gap has decreased from 14.8% in 1990 in Sub Saharan Africa to 11.4% today. It has dropped in East Asia and the Pacific from 5% in 1990 to 0.1% today. 0.1%

 

That is because there is much better access to education than there was in the past. 35% of the people on earth have access to the internet, and that is growing every year.

 

MOST PEACEFUL TIME IN HISTORY

 

People tend to have a low quality of life when they are surround by war. It may not seem it, but we are actually living through the most peaceful time in history.

 

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2014/12/the_world_is_not_falling_apart_the_trend_lines_reveal_an_increasingly_peaceful.html

 

https://ourworldindata.org/slides/war-and-violence/#/title-slide (really worth a look).

 

INCOMES OF THE POOREST ARE RISING

 

Yes, and perhaps more shocking - the world is actually becoming MORE equal. This is a long term trend, and there may be bumps on the road, but the income gap between rich and poor countries is narrowing. There may be some very very rich people who are absorbing a lot of extra wealth, but that does not change the overall trend. I suggest anyone who is interested to take a look at this, as it presents and explains the data very clearly.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/slides/world-poverty/#/declining-world-poverty-1820-2015-step2

 

Indeed, it is the poorest countries that are economically growing the fastest. The country with the fastest growing economy in the world? ETHIOPIA. The GDP per capita (adjusted for inflation) is growing in practically every single country on earth.

 

SUMMARY

 

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Yes, there are still billions of people living on earth that are struggling in abject poverty. Yes, there are still some huge challenges that need to be faced, but things are improving. Things are improving more rapidly then they ever have before, and it is the poorest people on earth who have the most to benefit from this.

 

For further reading, I suggest the following:

 

http://www.earthdash.org/more_info_screen/longtermtrends.html

 

The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley

 

Abundance by Peter Diamandis

 

Understanding The Science for Tomorrow: Myth vs. Reality by Jeffrey Grossman

 

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

 

That doesn't counter my claim that there are now more poor people than 10, 20, 30, 40 50 60 ect. years ago and it also doesn't counter my claim that the poorest are not getting wealthier, or that technology adversely effects their lives.

 

So based on the fact that there are now more poor people on earth despite all our recent advances in technology why do you believe that technology will one day eradicate poverty?

 

I haven't argued that we haven't improved infant mortality, Improving Infant morality actually increases the number of poor people.

Edited November 4, 2016 by Petminder