The next Tory recession?

[I1L2T3]

It's not just about Labour's over-spending, it's also about their abysmal failure to properly regulate UK banking.

You keep repeating the same rubbish.

Labour left a big deficit. In order to cushion the blow on the UK people, spending has been effectively frozen after inflation and as the economy grows and tax revenue increases the deficit is gradually reduced. Until the budget is brought into balance the debt will of course continue to rise.

We've been one of the fastest growing countries in the EU. The EU has pursued a range of solutions to the impact of the 2008-09 problems and the UK solution seems to be proving very effective.

Your opinions are not wholly, but largely inconsistent with the evidence and it's hard to see how a rational, well informed person could honestly hold them.

The evidence of recent history is against you.

The only thing you keep repeating which is correct, is the Osbourne missed his target of eliminating the deficit by 2015 and had to extend it. So he was a bit too optimistic. It's silly to suggest that this somehow invalidates the entire approach which has been largely successful.

 

Links please

 

Or if you like go through the links I posted and try and refute any of it

 

Are you saying that Osborne didn't double the national debt? Seriously?

 

I do agree about regulation to a point but show me any country anywhere in the world that understood what was coming and put regulation in place. You won't find any.

 

The real problem with the regulation is what hasn't happened since.

 

Less of the ad hominem attacks too. And a few links

 

---------- Post added 30-08-2015 at 19:44 ----------

 

Canada seemed to have no problems at all in the "global" crises.... and a large number of other countries were fairly unaffected....

 

Canadian GDP dropped nearly 3% in the first year of the crisis. They coped better than other countries but certainly weren't unaffected by the crisis.

Edited August 30, 2015 by I1L2T3

[WiseOwl182]

Are you saying that Osborne didn't double the national debt? Seriously?

.

 

 

Debt v deficit again. Debt could only grow after the huge deficit left by Labour. Thankfully that deficit has been halved now, but of course that means by definition debt is still growing. It's on course to turn to surplus in 2020.

[mafya]

Looking at this UK debt clock it seems our debt increases by £5170 every second! = http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk

[I1L2T3]

Debt v deficit again. Debt could only grow after the huge deficit left by Labour. Thankfully that deficit has been halved now, but of course that means by definition debt is still growing. It's on course to turn to surplus in 2020.

 

It seems you understand it much better than Cameron

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2779516/Cameron-rebuked-debt-claims.html

 

Yes I understand your argument and it is true that debt growth had a velocity that would have caused an increase under any government.

 

Problem is we were supposed to return to surplus this year. We have missed targets, have had three years of strangled growth 2010-13 and the national debt doubled. And nothing to show for it.

 

You have to also understand what caused the huge deficit in 2008-9.

[Anna B]

It's not just about Labour's over-spending, it's also about their abysmal failure to properly regulate UK banking.

 

This is what Peter Oborne political commentator and financial expert on the Daily Telegraph has to say about the current situation:

 

" Despite the signs of recovery, our economy is not yet on anything like an even keel after the banking collapse of 2008. Since that year our debt has more than doubled to an out-of-control £1.5Trillion.

 

Apart from a handful of superficial reforms, Osborne has managed to achieve little to rein in or restructure the banking sector. Just as in 2008, our banks are fatally still 'too big to fail' Thus all the ingredients are in place for another fiscal crisis.

 

Most worryingly, Osborne has allowed the City of London to return to the deeply flawed system of 'light touch' regulation,' which helped to cause the 2008 crash. Once again our financial institutions have been liberated to bet trillions of pounds on assets they cannot value or even understand.

 

This new lax environment was symbolised 5 weeks ago with the disgraceful sacking of Britain's top financial regulator, Martin Wheatley, as chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority. It had been an open secret for some time that his tough, no-nonsense approach to financial regulation was deeply resented by City financiers, who loathed his interference in their freewheeling ways."

 

Thatcher was the one who deregulated the banks in the first place, and George Osborne is in no rush to fix it, so where does that leave your argument?

[unbeliever]

 

This is what Peter Oborne political commentator and financial expert on the Daily Telegraph has to say about the current situation:

 

" Despite the signs of recovery, our economy is not yet on anything like an even keel after the banking collapse of 2008. Since that year our debt has more than doubled to an out-of-control £1.5Trillion.

 

Apart from a handful of superficial reforms, Osborne has managed to achieve little to rein in or restructure the banking sector. Just as in 2008, our banks are fatally still 'too big to fail' Thus all the ingredients are in place for another fiscal crisis.

 

Most worryingly, Osborne has allowed the City of London to return to the deeply flawed system of 'light touch' regulation,' which helped to cause the 2008 crash. Once again our financial institutions have been liberated to bet trillions of pounds on assets they cannot value or even understand.

 

This new lax environment was symbolised 5 weeks ago with the disgraceful sacking of Britain's top financial regulator, Martin Wheatley, as chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority. It had been an open secret for some time that his tough, no-nonsense approach to financial regulation was deeply resented by City financiers, who loathed his interference in their freewheeling ways."

 

Thatcher was the one who deregulated the banks in the first place, and George Osborne is in no rush to fix it, so where does that leave your argument?

 

There was a phase of deregulation under Thatcher but not in the areas which caused the problems. The banks did very well in the '80s and '90s.

The banks got into trouble because of their low capital requirements. This was instituted by Labour. There's no getting away from this.

Light touch regulation is not a problem in of itself. Low capital requirements on the other hand leave banks incapable of absorbing reasonable losses from big market corrections. This has been corrected.

It would be nice if we had lots of small banks rather than a few big ones but it's too late now to prevent the mergers which caused this under Labour. Best to just be patient. New players will eventually enter the market and if Labour are still in opposition where they belong new mergers can be prevented.

 

 

---------- Post added 31-08-2015 at 07:33 ----------

 

The FTSE is up 400 points since this thread was started.

I'm afraid those who anticipated a "Tory recession" are going to be disappointed.

 

The Guardian seems to agree:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/27/ftse-100-stock-markets-china-us&cid=52778937999805&ei=OvTjVaiPPJKYUO_liIgK&usg=AFQjCNH6LbQgjz_Fa886gaH4QIWckcPa3A

 

As does the Independent:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/market-report-surge-after-upbeat-us-gdp-data-helps-ftse-100-claw-back-most-of-black-monday-losses-10477781.html&cid=0&ei=OvTjVaiPPJKYUO_liIgK&usg=AFQjCNFw2BVGpX8kvKYDJX2WpxUT4uSoUw

 

Now that even the socialist papers agree that we're fine. Can we stop pretending that this is somehow proof that Osbourne is mishandling the economy please?

Edited August 31, 2015 by unbeliever

[WiseOwl182]

It seems you understand it much better than Cameron

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-2779516/Cameron-rebuked-debt-claims.html

 

Yes I understand your argument and it is true that debt growth had a velocity that would have caused an increase under any government.

 

Problem is we were supposed to return to surplus this year. We have missed targets, have had three years of strangled growth 2010-13 and the national debt doubled. And nothing to show for it.

 

You have to also understand what caused the huge deficit in 2008-9.

 

 

Labour were already growing the deficit before the financial crisis hit. The huge deficit wasn't all down to the impact of the crisis.

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2008/jan/21/economics.prebudgetreport2007

[I1L2T3]

There was a phase of deregulation under Thatcher but not in the areas which caused the problems. The banks did very well in the '80s and '90s.

The banks got into trouble because of their low capital requirements. This was instituted by Labour. There's no getting away from this.

Light touch regulation is not a problem in of itself. Low capital requirements on the other hand leave banks incapable of absorbing reasonable losses from big market corrections. This has been corrected.

It would be nice if we had lots of small banks rather than a few big ones but it's too late now to prevent the mergers which caused this under Labour. Best to just be patient. New players will eventually enter the market and if Labour are still in opposition where they belong new mergers can be prevented.

 

 

---------- Post added 31-08-2015 at 07:33 ----------

 

The FTSE is up 400 points since this thread was started.

I'm afraid those who anticipated a "Tory recession" are going to be disappointed.

 

The Guardian seems to agree:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/27/ftse-100-stock-markets-china-us&cid=52778937999805&ei=OvTjVaiPPJKYUO_liIgK&usg=AFQjCNH6LbQgjz_Fa886gaH4QIWckcPa3A

 

As does the Independent:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/market-report-surge-after-upbeat-us-gdp-data-helps-ftse-100-claw-back-most-of-black-monday-losses-10477781.html&cid=0&ei=OvTjVaiPPJKYUO_liIgK&usg=AFQjCNFw2BVGpX8kvKYDJX2WpxUT4uSoUw

 

Now that even the socialist papers agree that we're fine. Can we stop pretending that this is somehow proof that Osbourne is mishandling the economy please?

 

So light touch regulation is fine now, as long as it is Osborne in charge of it?

 

The FTSE just had its worst month in 3 years. Losses since beginning August have been nowhere near regained. And you accuse others of twisting statistics?

[unbeliever]

So light touch regulation is fine now, as long as it is Osborne in charge of it?

 

The FTSE just had its worst month in 3 years. Losses since beginning August have been nowhere near regained. And you accuse others of twisting statistics?

 

You asked for links, now you have them.

Essentially everybody except you seems to be in agreement that the FTSE is doing very well despite international pressures. It's already well on the way to recovering.

 

Of course light touch regulation is fine. It always was.

What's not fine is allowing inadequate capital ratios.

What don't you understand?

[drummonds]

The FTSE is up 400 points since this thread was started.

I'm afraid those who anticipated a "Tory recession" are going to be disappointed.

 

The Guardian seems to agree:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/27/ftse-100-stock-markets-china-us&cid=52778937999805&ei=OvTjVaiPPJKYUO_liIgK&usg=AFQjCNH6LbQgjz_Fa886gaH4QIWckcPa3A

 

As does the Independent:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/market-report-surge-after-upbeat-us-gdp-data-helps-ftse-100-claw-back-most-of-black-monday-losses-10477781.html&cid=0&ei=OvTjVaiPPJKYUO_liIgK&usg=AFQjCNFw2BVGpX8kvKYDJX2WpxUT4uSoUw

 

Now that even the socialist papers agree that we're fine. Can we stop pretending that this is somehow proof that Osbourne is mishandling the economy please?

 

 

Yes it is a real shame for those praying for a financial crisis. The facts are

Unemployment increased under labour between 1997 and 2010

More than a million more people are in work since the tories came to power.

The ftse 100 was just above 4900 points in may 2010. It is now at 6247. 27% higher

The ftse 250 was hovering around 10000 points in may 2010. It is now above17100. A rise of around 70%.

Labour ran up a record budget deficit. It is now the lowest it has been for 7 years and still falling.