The next Tory recession?

[TJC1]

I like some of Osbornes policies, selling off public land, chasing tax avoidance, the deficit reduction (although too sharp he does at least commit).

unfortunately the coup de grace, the living wage project is destined to fail.

 

Ultimately it will plunge more people into poverty, we will hit recession and prevent osbourne reaching number 10.

 

---------- Post added 30-08-2015 at 11:25 ----------

 

Bringing lowest paid people out of tax...in theory and on its own thats another plus.

 

---------- Post added 30-08-2015 at 11:27 ----------

 

Removing tax credits so quickly was a big mistake, as is the squeezing of housing and overall benefit.

 

Not saying the welfare bill didnt need reform, but you have to have alternative.

[El Cid]

Immigration is clearly out of control. But that's a different matter.

 

 

It is not a different matter, was it the Institute of Directors that thinks we need more people in the country, the two things are linked?

 

I am poorer, growth means nothing to me.

[unbeliever]

It is not a different matter, was it the Institute of Directors that thinks we need more people in the country, the two things are linked?

 

I am poorer, growth means nothing to me.

 

Are you?

Did you not benefit from the increase in the income tax threshold?

 

Also, taking advantage of growth requires pursuing better jobs as they become available. If you insist on staying in the same job come what may, then you may not benefit as much as others. This is necessarily a private sector lead recovery. You have to be prepared to pursue better opportunities as they arise.

 

As I say even correcting for population growth, we have real growth.

In April 2010 GDP/capita was US$38362, at the end of 2014 it was US$45600. (current US$).

Edited August 30, 2015 by unbeliever

[I1L2T3]

Borrowing to supposedly promote growth is what got us into this mess in the first place.

Capital spending, which is actually useful for growth was increased compared with Labour's plans.

We've had steady growth almost without interruption since Osbourne became chancellor all the while increasing spending after inflation but reducing it as a fraction of GDP.

You're advocating exactly the same neo-Keyensian rubbish which failed under Labour. A traditional Keyensian approach is pretty much what we have now. The neo-Keyensian lie that all public spending pays for itself in increased growth has been thoroughly discredited.

 

How can you say that Labours spending got us in a mess when Osborne has borrowed and spent like money grows on trees, doubling the nationàl debt in the process.

 

It was the global crisis that got us into bother. If you don't understand that basic fact then we can't move forward.

 

Propagandist nonsense does nothing to further the discussion.

 

I don't think the Keynesian approach has been thoroughly discredited as it happens. Most major projects if done right put more back into the economy than they take out. And after all major capital projects undertaken by government involve borrowing - no other ways to do it and arguably its better to keep that borrowing on the books rather than using PFI.

 

The issue is really that Osborne did the borrowing and he spent it all on the wrong things

 

---------- Post added 30-08-2015 at 14:08 ----------

 

Are you?

Did you not benefit from the increase in the income tax threshold?

 

Also, taking advantage of growth requires pursuing better jobs as they become available. If you insist on staying in the same job come what may, then you may not benefit as much as others. This is necessarily a private sector lead recovery. You have to be prepared to pursue better opportunities as they arise.

 

As I say even correcting for population growth, we have real growth.

In April 2010 GDP/capita was US$38362, at the end of 2014 it was US$45600. (current US$).

 

Income tax threshold goes up, VAT goes up.

 

Give with one hand, take with the other!!! The net impact is minimal or neutral for most people. We're talking a few quid a week in many cases. Unless you're a millionaire.

 

Osborne has increased way more taxes than he has lowered.

 

How can you be so blind to it?

[unbeliever]

How can you say that Labours spending got us in a mess when Osborne has borrowed and spent like money grows on trees, doubling the nationàl debt in the process.

 

It was the global crisis that got us into bother. If you don't understand that basic fact then we can't move forward.

 

Propagandist nonsense does nothing to further the discussion.

 

I don't think the Keynesian approach has been thoroughly discredited as it happens. Most major projects if done right put more back into the economy than they take out. And after all major capital projects undertaken by government involve borrowing - no other ways to do it and arguably its better to keep that borrowing on the books rather than using PFI.

 

The issue is really that Osborne did the borrowing and he spent it all on the wrong things

 

---------- Post added 30-08-2015 at 14:08 ----------

 

 

Income tax threshold goes up, VAT goes up.

 

Give with one hand, take with the other!!! The net impact is minimal or neutral for most people. We're talking a few quid a week in many cases. Unless you're a millionaire.

 

Osborne has increased way more taxes than he has lowered.

 

How can you be so blind to it?

 

 

Oh dear, where to start.

You conveniently brush over the difference between Keyensian and neo-Keyensian.

A comparison of the number of taxes going up against the number gone down is meaningless as all the taxes have gone up and down by different amounts. I can't believe you even tried that one.

VAT is a tax on spending and income tax is a tax on income. Shifting from income taxes to spending taxes encourages saving which is what you want when you have a debt problem.

The debt has gone up, but the rate of borrowing is going down. We're clearly moving in the right direction. Once again you're trying to be very misleading with your statistics. Which you wouldn't do if you actually had a strong case.

Investment fuels growth. Random spending on bureaucracy does not. State spending on investment has gone up. Random spending on nonsense has gone down.

UK policy made a significant contribution toward causing the financial crisis and left us in a very weak position to cope with it. If you can't accept these basic facts then you've clearly not being paying attention for the last 7 years.

[I1L2T3]

Oh dear, where to start.

You conveniently brush over the difference between Keyensian and neo-Keyensian.

A comparison of the number of taxes going up against the number gone down is meaningless as all the taxes have gone up and down by different amounts. I can't believe you even tried that one.

VAT is a tax on spending and income tax is a tax on income. Shifting from income taxes to spending taxes encourages saving which is what you want when you have a debt problem.

The debt has gone up, but the rate of borrowing is going down. We're clearly moving in the right direction. Once again you're trying to be very misleading with your statistics. Which you wouldn't do if you actually had a strong case.

Investment fuels growth. Random spending on bureaucracy does not. State spending on investment has gone up. Random spending on nonsense has gone down.

UK policy made a significant contribution toward causing the financial crisis and left us in a very weak position to cope with it. If you can't accept these basic facts then you've clearly not being paying attention for the last 7 years.

 

Start by providing some links rather than posting propagandist nonsense.

 

Osborne killed growth (verifiable), doubled the national debt (verifiable), never planned to double the national debt (verifiable) and you know it so stop squirming and making excuses for his failure.

 

I'm not being misleading over anything. Just stating the coldest, hardest facts.

 

I'm not defending Labour either but the thing is you have to understand bwhat caused the problems before they can be solved.

[TJC1]

I think new labour messed up the economy, the conservatives are fixing it, but not in the right way....its a bad choice between two ugly sisters.

[unbeliever]

Start by providing some links rather than posting propagandist nonsense.

 

Osborne killed growth (verifiable), doubled the national debt (verifiable), never planned to double the national debt (verifiable) and you know it so stop squirming and making excuses for his failure.

 

I'm not being misleading over anything. Just stating the coldest, hardest facts.

 

I'm not defending Labour either but the thing is you have to understand bwhat caused the problems before they can be solved.

 

That's largely nonsense.

Where are your links?

[Eric Arthur]

It was the global crisis that got us into bother. If you don't understand that basic fact then we can't move forward.?

It's a bit hard when you don't understand that there wasn't a global crisis.

 

---------- Post added 30-08-2015 at 15:23 ----------

 

Keynes advocated saving when times were good not just spending when they were bad.

 

Many people either don't know this or conveniently ignore this small detail including Gordon Brown and his acolytes. It turned out that governments weren't very good at regulating markets after all but by then they had spent up.

[I1L2T3]

It's a bit hard when you don't understand that there wasn't a global crisis.

 

---------- Post added 30-08-2015 at 15:23 ----------

 

Keynes advocated saving when times were good not just spending when they were bad.

 

Many people either don't know this or conveniently ignore this small detail including Gordon Brown and his acolytes. It turned out that governments weren't very good at regulating markets after all but by then they had spent up.

 

Say what?

 

No global crisis?

 

Explain what on earth you are going on about.

 

---------- Post added 30-08-2015 at 16:53 ----------

 

That's largely nonsense.

Where are your links?

 

Spending as a percentage of GDP was falling going into 2007-8

http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/borrowing-percent-gdp-exclude-royal-mail.png

 

UK national debt doubled (maybe almost trebled after Osborne has worked his magic)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11339921/David-Cameron-and-the-national-debt-monster-in-three-charts.html

 

In 2010 Osborne aimed to eliminate the deficit by 2015

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2010/10/george-osborne-confirms-intention-to-eliminate-deficit-by-2015-in-first-commons-clash-with-alan-john.html

 

Growth killed in 2010 (use the 5 year chart)

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

 

UK has lowest research spend in G8

http://www.theguardian.com/science/occams-corner/2015/mar/13/science-vital-uk-spending-research-gdp

 

Where's your links? I particularly want you to clarify your comments around increased infrastructure investment