exxon Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Tomorrow sees the by-election in Oldham West and Royston. It will be a big test of the leadership of Corbyn and his shadow cabinet. Oldham West and Royston is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. In May when Labour lost the general election they held Oldham West and Royston with a majority of 14,738. As they need a swing of around 7 points to win at the next general election they will be looking to increase that majority to show their new man at the top is what voters are looking for. Having looked at the polls it isn't looking as though this is going to plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamston Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 By - elections rarely reflect what is likely to happen in a General Election otherwise UKIP would have many more than just the one seat they won . Michael Meacher was a well respected long serving politician, so any new Labour candidate would struggle to get any where near that majority or share of the vote in a By - Election, regardless of who is the Labour leader . Result will be a Labour win , UKIP will be 2nd and every party will claim they have had a good result . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exxon Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 By - elections rarely reflect what is likely to happen in a General Election otherwise UKIP would have many more than just the one seat they won . Michael Meacher was a well respected long serving politician, so any new Labour candidate would struggle to get any where near that majority or share of the vote in a By - Election, regardless of who is the Labour leader . Result will be a Labour win , UKIP will be 2nd and every party will claim they have had a good result . What would you consider a good result for Corbyn then? Winning by .. 15000? 10,000? 5,000? 1,000? Loosing by only 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamston Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The turn out will be very low compared to a General Election so the percentage of the vote is more important than the winning margin . A good result for Corbyn will be for Labour to hold the seat . Obviously if Labour was to lose to UKIP it would be a bad result . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The turn out will be very low compared to a General Election so the percentage of the vote is more important than the winning margin . A good result for Corbyn will be for Labour to hold the seat . Obviously if Labour was to lose to UKIP it would be a bad result . So it'd be a good result for Labour if their majority was cut in half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obelix Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Tomorrow sees the by-election in Oldham West and Royston. It will be a big test of the leadership of Corbyn and his shadow cabinet. Oldham West and Royston is one of the safest Labour seats in the country. In May when Labour lost the general election they held Oldham West and Royston with a majority of 14,738. As they need a swing of around 7 points to win at the next general election they will be looking to increase that majority to show their new man at the top is what voters are looking for. Having looked at the polls it isn't looking as though this is going to plan. It's going to be normal midterm blues. Anything could happen. Whats the biggest thing people are going to complain about? Corbyn hasn't endeared people to the party with the divisions and him finding his feet and looking statesman like. Labour probably will get a pasting, they will still keep it, and it'll be of stuff all use in predicting anything as it will be irrelevant in respect to the next General Election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exxon Posted December 2, 2015 Author Share Posted December 2, 2015 It's going to be normal midterm blues. Anything could happen. Whats the biggest thing people are going to complain about? Corbyn hasn't endeared people to the party with the divisions and him finding his feet and looking statesman like. Labour probably will get a pasting, they will still keep it, and it'll be of stuff all use in predicting anything as it will be irrelevant in respect to the next General Election. Don't mid term blues normally refer to the party of government, not the chief opposition, supposedly reinvigorated under a dynamic and charismatic new leader before his gloss starts to fade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The 3 bookies' sites I looked at gave: Ladbrokes Labour 1/4 UKIP 3/1 Coral Lab 1/4 UKIP 3/1 William Hill Lab 2/9 UKIP 3/1 As they are reliant on getting it right for financial reasons they probably have more at stake (pun intended). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manlinose Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 So it'd be a good result for Labour if their majority was cut in half? Yes if they maintained their share of the vote - not convinced that will happen though - partly because of the personal support Michael Meacher had which may not turnout on a wet, cold Thursday in Oldham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonny5 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 They'll win it easily. Most voters there won't even know that Corbyn is the Labour leader. It's has no bearing on his future. It's his own MPs that will oust him as even regardless of his ability to win an election he is ideologically at odds with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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