Oldham West and Royston by-election. Corbyn's big test.

[andyofborg]

I KNEW, just KNEW you would try to weasel out of it by using number of voters and COMPLETELY ignoring the FACT that voter share went up, which is the only thing that counts. Did you care about number of votes when the Tories one at the general election or did you care that they got more of the vote in a larger number of seats? So predictable. Far more predictable than the pre-vote polls!

 

if the total vote for labour went down but voter share went up then that suggests there were a large number of non-labour voters who didn't bother to vote for some reason or other.

 

on the wider issue of corbyn's electability, as i've posted before, he is far more popular with the party in general than he is with his mp's and by and large his stance on the military intervention is syria seems to be in tune with party members. oldham is a traditional labour area and will suffer mightly from the "red rosette on a donkey" syndrome couple that with a candidate who seems to be an effective local politician, something of a rare breed, and the fact that labour did well is not that much of a surprise.

 

ukip and non-corbyn supporting labour mp's seem to want to have made this some sort of referendum on corbyn and, quite rightly the people of oldham have refused to play that game.

 

corbyn does not need to convince the labour party members that he would make a suitable prime minister and that the labour party is capable of forming an effective government, they mostly believe that and his election demonstrates that.

 

what he needs to do is convince the floating centrist voters who flip between tories, lib dems and labour and to a lesser extent ukip and greens depending on who floats their boat in the run up to the election. that is a much bigger ask.

Edited December 4, 2015 by andyofborg

[Eric Arthur]

I KNEW, just KNEW you would try to weasel out of it by using number of voters and COMPLETELY ignoring the FACT that voter share went up, which is the only thing that counts.

 

With all due respect though sgtkate, that's rubbish. The simple truth is that over six thousand fewer people thought that Labour were worth turning out for.

 

I do think it is important in a democracy how the actual number of people vote. Voter share is nothing to do with voter opinion. Actual bums on seats are what count and fewer bums could be bothered to get off their seat to vote Labour yesterday.

[blake]

The Tories aren't dreamers, like Corbyn and McDonnell are dreamers. They're good. They'll just keep tacking professionally into the centre where they know British general elections, are won, and lost. In fact they want Corbyn to not do too badly in elections because if he does heaven forbid he might get replaced. And that is the last thing the Tories want.

[alchresearch]

Very true. Although the fact that the British media got this one so badly wrong can't be ignored.

 

Not got it wrong, more like deliberately published incorrect information to try and sway the public? The media love to publish anything to slate Corbyn - he's the gift that just keeps giving.

 

Anyone remember the shock of the result of the exit polls on election day?

[andyofborg]

I do think it is important in a democracy how the actual number of people vote. Voter share is nothing to do with voter opinion. Actual bums on seats are what count and fewer bums could be bothered to get off their seat to vote Labour yesterday.

 

a third of the voters who voted last may didn't turn out yesterday. there were far more non-labour voters who didn't turn out that labour voters who didn't turn out.

[Jonny5]

But he is the "real" socialist, aren't they ideologically at odds with him and their origins? I haven't considered Labour really socialist since Blair became leader.

Yes. You've answered you own question

 

I think a lot of Labour MP's, whether Blairite or not, still see a more central party as being more electable and hence (and more importantly) giving them a better chance to hold onto their seats.

[banjodeano]

With all due respect though sgtkate, that's rubbish. The simple truth is that over six thousand fewer people thought that Labour were worth turning out for.

 

I do think it is important in a democracy how the actual number of people vote. Voter share is nothing to do with voter opinion. Actual bums on seats are what count and fewer bums could be bothered to get off their seat to vote Labour yesterday.

Nonsense, that is just sour grapes, please be dignified and give credit where credit is due, the total percentage that Labour achieved increased, thats all that matters, period

[andyofborg]

Yes. You've answered you own question

 

I think a lot of Labour MP's, whether Blairite or not, still see a more central party as being more electable and hence (and more importantly) giving them a better chance to hold onto their seats.

 

whats the point of standing for a seat if you don't want to win?

 

the evidence from the 80s onwards is that very left leaning parties don't do well in general elections, the blairites took the party rightwards in order to win and they won in style then the power went to their heads and they went a bit potty.

[blackydog]

Take out the Sun, Daily Mail (hateful newpaper), Telegraph and the labour MPs who don't agree with Corbyn, all who have big voices and sway but are not capable of mass votes, only influence over others.

People are then free to make up their own mind without the constant bias, big ask and many will never make the break from tabloid propaganda but the ones that do are your potential Corbyn voters.

My father in law ( a great bloke otherwise) quotes me stuff from the Sun and he really believes it. It would be great if this propaganda was it's own downfall.

[Eater Sundae]

Take out the Sun, Daily Mail (hateful newpaper), Telegraph and the labour MPs who don't agree with Corbyn, all who have big voices and sway but are not capable of mass votes, only influence over others.

People are then free to make up their own mind without the constant bias, big ask and many will never make the break from tabloid propaganda but the ones that do are your potential Corbyn voters.

My father in law ( a great bloke otherwise) quotes me stuff from the Sun and he really believes it. It would be great if this propaganda was it's own downfall.

 

There's plenty of pro Labour media output also.

 

The left media had convinced itself and those who'd listen, that the Conservatives would suffer in the last election. That was why it was a shock to them when the Conservatives actually won a majority.