National Front France Big Jump

[scania]

The NF party in France has now gained 30% of the vote after the Paris attacks.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35018849

[mafya]

The NF party in France has now gained 30% of the vote after the Paris attacks.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35018849

 

Good for them, it goes to show how idiotic they are if they think voting for far right party's is going to stop immigration or acts of terrorism.

[L00b]

The NF party in France has now gained 30% of the vote after the Paris attacks.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35018849

I suppose the latest attacks in Paris may well have had a last-minute amplifying effect, but don't kid yourself: the large-scale vote swing was running long before them, and this result is entirely according to expectations I'm afraid:

Equally unsurprisingly (completely predictably, to be sure), Ms LePen is making hay with public opinion (French polls credit her performance at the EU Parliament today with over 67% 'favourables'). Hollande's counter-PR chest beating about the EU migrant deal is completely drowned out.

 

Ms Lepen will in all likelihood get the top job for the new larger "Nord Pas de Calais Picardie" region at the forthcoming regional elections (06 Dec 2015), with most polls putting her list a full 10% ahead. Meaning she's going to wield a lot (more) influence about Calais. Life is about to get a lot more uncomfortable for the 'jungle'.

 

As clear an indication, if any was needed, that the harder nationalist right is now rising very fast indeed.

"Poor migrants from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan" thread, post #2366, 22/09/15.

 

Poland's next GE results (end October 2015) and France's next regional elections results (early December 2015) will provide all the vindication you and I need, inasmuch as we needed any. For shame, but such is -and will be-life.

"Poor migrants from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan" thread, post #2455, 24/09/15.

 

For reference, Law & Justice cleaned up at the October 2015 Polish Elections with a similar groundswell vote. I suggest you look them up. Surprised? Not in the least.

 

That's just 2 examples, I'm sure there's more but can't be @rsed looking for them in (mostly closed-) threads.

 

Though the sheer scale of it has taken me by surprise. I was expecting a large swing vote. But not that large.

 

And it will only get worse. And not just in France, far from it. Vindication never tasted so bitter than this morning.

Edited December 7, 2015 by L00b

[Harrystottle]

So far this year I can remember the Charlie Hebdo shootings, the Paris Jewish bakery shootings, the 130 people murdered in Paris recently, the attempted massacre on a French train...

 

I can't remember if the shootings in Marseilles were this year or last.

 

So in the circumstances it's hardly surprising that the FN have had a jump in their support.

 

They were the only party to predict terrorist attacks by home grown Islamic terrorists, so when it happens, they benefit.

[Quik]

Hardly surprising. Assuming they get a couple of regions it will be interesting to see how competant or otherwise they are at delivering governance. The regional responsibilities are quite broad but don't include any of their main political selling points so it won't be easy for them to shine in those roles.

[JFKvsNixon]

Did the le Pen make it through to the final round of one of France's presidential elections? I think Chirac was the winner, but I remember at the media making out that it in a contest between a crook and a facist, the crook won.

[Quik]

Did the le Pen make it through to the final round of one of France's presidential elections? I think Chirac was the winner, but I remember at the media making out that it in a contest between a crook and a facist, the crook won.

 

That was le Pen senior and yes the socialists campaign slogan was 'Vote for the crook not the Nazi' once they had been eliminated.

[scania]

Good for them, it goes to show how idiotic they are if they think voting for far right party's is going to stop immigration or acts of terrorism.

 

It is good for them, you are right.

[L00b]

Did the le Pen make it through to the final round of one of France's presidential elections? I think Chirac was the winner, but I remember at the media making out that it in a contest between a crook and a facist, the crook won.

A bit of a redundant question, JFK: Jean-Marie LePen's Front National of old is an entirely different beast to Marine LePen's Front National of today. Think the unelectable EDL-BNP turned into an electable UKIP-Tory hybrid.

 

The father had poor chances in that election: his was a large-scale protest vote at the 1st round, gone a step further than anyone thought. He tanked predictably at the 2nd round.

 

The daughter has real chances in 2017, but she's going to have to graft real hard on regional governance to prove the FN's mettle, as noted by Quik.

Assuming they get a couple of regions it will be interesting to see how competant or otherwise they are at delivering governance.

They're predicted to get at least 4 regions, btw: they're ahead in 6 (wayyy ahead in 4 of them at 40%+, against 20ies for the trailing lists), borderline 7 (Normandie, they're behind the "conventional" right by 0.2%: might as well call it neck-to-neck), Sarkozy has rejected any alliance with the Socialists or withdrawal of any 'centre right' list for the 2nd round, and Masseret (Socialist) is disobeying party central by not withdrawing his list for the 2nd round in Alsace-Lorraine-Champagne-Ardennes

Good for them, it goes to show how idiotic they are if they think voting for far right party's is going to stop immigration or acts of terrorism.

You miss the point: this is not going to do any good to immigrant communities in France what-so-ever. And it will certainly put a significant dent in immigration, because the 4 regions in question are those that see the most immigration from the East and the Med.

 

Watch what happens to the Calais Jungle when Marin LePen gets to be head of the Nord Pas de Calais region, watch what happens in Marseille when her niece gets to be head of the PACA region.

 

That's Marine LePen's presidency ticket, in case you missed it: if it gets better, it will be thanks to her party's governance; if it gets worse, it will be because immigrants (and "culturally-incompatible" nationals...and we all know who that is) are rejecting the FN's nationalistic policies and values - exactly what got them 30% of the national vote yesterday.

Edited December 7, 2015 by L00b

[sgtkate]

I've never been really pro or anti the EU up till now. I've seen it as a useful ally in many areas and a bit of a cumbersome beast in others. I've never really seen it have a DIRECT influence on my life to be honest so I've not let it factor into any political decisions. I partially support the freedom of movement, I support the idea, but for it to work it needs to be only between countries of similar economic position.

 

Over the last few months, ignoring a few posters on here, we seem to be getting further and further away from Europe politically. I'd say in general Britain is actually becoming more left-wing. Compare the Tories now to the Tories of say 20 years ago. They are far more central than they were (John Major was an anomaly in the same vein as Blair was for Labour). Labour are also moving leftwards (jury clearly still out on whether they will remain so). Support for UKIP seems to be falling. BNP who? EDL are laughable and not a political party anyway. Greens have risen albeit slowly. As Loob says, we can all sit here and pretend the recent Paris attacks are responsible, but they are a v small part of it. Poland had no attacks yet has drastically lurched the right. Germany appears to be likely to vote more right wing moving from central conservatism. For the first time I genuinely want us out of Europe as I look at our neighbours with horror and fear. We have nothing to gain by being associated with parties still viewed as neo-Nazi in many quarters. Yes the FN has 'smartened' up in recent times, but they are still the French BNP at their heart.

 

Understandable voting - Maybe. Something the UK should support - No.