The EU referendum, late June

[*_ash_*]

There are few EU debates going, but I wondered about a few of things when the day comes. (it's 0254 and nearly cut off time, so I'll write quickly, and may edit later)

 

1. There doesn't seem to be any info about when they expect results in. Any ideas or guesses how long to count something like this?

 

(I would think similar to the Scottish referendum + a bit of time, but I can't remember how long that was now)

 

2. Regardless of how you will vote (like the poll thread), do your think your voting choice will win? (mine are opposites*)

 

3. How many will be on here when it is announced?!

 

 

 

*I think UK will vote to stay in, though it might be close. I will vote out because I think the EU is finished, I doubt it will last much longer, and I think we will be better off out when it fails. The scare stories are about a major recession, but I think that this will happen anyway when it fails.

Edited March 7, 2016 by *_ash_*

[*_ash_*]

Well I wrote this 3 and half months ago long before all the TV/media type debates.

 

(obviously not interesting enough for anyone to post though )

 

So I'll put up my predictions.

 

I'm not sure how the results will be divided up, but I think roughly

UK - north will probably vote about 55-45 OUT

UK - South and London will vote IN, probably a bit more than above. 60-40ish

Wales - perhaps just slightly more OUT than in

Scotl - very close

Gibr - high IN vote

NI - not really sure, don't know anything about it

 

Overall - Comfortable 60-40 win for IN.

 

 

In the 3 half months of debates in here and on TV, my earlier view which was this has slightly altered

 

I think UK will vote to stay in, though it might be close. I will vote out because I think the EU is finished, I doubt it will last much longer, and I think we will be better off out when it fails. The scare stories are about a major recession, but I think that this will happen anyway when it fails.

 

... I don't think it will be close, I'm not sure whether to vote or spoil, and I still think it's finished soon, perhaps in next 10 years at most.

 

 

-

 

Anyone want to add any predictions to the ones of mine above?

Edited June 23, 2016 by *_ash_*

[Eater Sundae]

I thought I'd take pity on you and answer, so you don't feel totally alone, and wondering if everyone had you on ignore.

 

I really don't know and find it hard to guess.

 

Re your split by regions, I'm inclined towards all of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland voting for Remain. I also think that London and the south east will generally be remain. The north and much else of the country will generally be for Brexit.

 

Overall, I don't think it will be anything like a 60/40 split (although I hope it is). I think it will be much, much closer, and may even be for Brexit.