Brexit-Impact on Eurozone.

[unbeliever]

Are you reading this Retep? There is a distinct difference in what you want and what others want from Brexit. That means that there will be no consensus and things will become difficult in the UK, the Tories are already split on the Brexit issue, this sort of thing will cause an even bigger divide.

 

Brexit will trigger a significant stability hit, both here and in the EU.

 

People like Retep and myself will democratically debate these matters amongst ourselves after Brexit. As a UK resident you would be most welcome to join us. With full UK democracy restored, we shall discuss, argue and vote and the people will collectively choose what course we follow.

That's how it's supposed to work.

 

Democracy has always been in conflict with "stability". We want liberty and prosperity, but most of all we want liberty.

Edited April 16, 2016 by unbeliever

[tzijlstra]

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx

 

The bulk of our trade is outside the EU, but the bulk of our deficit is with the EU.

In February 2016 (most recent data), trade with the EU accounted for 46% of our exports, but 72% of our deficit.

 

And how is that going to change post-Brexit? Are you saying the UK will import less from the EU? I repeat my earlier point, most, if not all, of the large corporations in the UK trade with the EU all the time, several are in fact co-owned by groups in the EU and the UK, take Shell for example, or completely owned by foreign investors who put money into the UK because it is a member of the EU. How do you envisage Brexit will have a positive impact on that for the UK?

 

The reason for the net sale of UK assets to overseas buyers is the net trade deficit of the UK with the rest of the world. Membership of the EU biases trade toward the EU through their control of our regulations and standards. For example a UK company wanting to trade outside the EU has to meet EU standards and their customers' standards quite unnecessarily. Despite this bias, less than 50% of our trade is with the EU and I think it likely that would fall without the artificial trading environment created by membership. The trade deficit would inevitably fall with it.

 

It is absolutely nothing to do with trade deficit, I've never heard something so contrived. But outside of that, what you are saying is - leave the EU so we can drop our standard of living to compete with non-EU nations.

 

Are you reading this Retep?

[unbeliever]

And how is that going to change post-Brexit? Are you saying the UK will import less from the EU? I repeat my earlier point, most, if not all, of the large corporations in the UK trade with the EU all the time, several are in fact co-owned by groups in the EU and the UK, take Shell for example, or completely owned by foreign investors who put money into the UK because it is a member of the EU. How do you envisage Brexit will have a positive impact on that for the UK?

 

 

 

It is absolutely nothing to do with trade deficit, I've never heard something so contrived. But outside of that, what you are saying is - leave the EU so we can drop our standard of living to compete with non-EU nations.

 

Are you reading this Retep?

 

How is it contrived and who said anything about dropping our standard of living? We're not going to compete with the developing world for manual labour. Where are you getting this from. If you're going to debate like this you might like to drop your sensitivity to others "putting words in [your] mouth".

[tzijlstra]

People like Retep and myself will democratically debate these matters amongst ourselves after Brexit. As a UK resident you would be most welcome to join us. With full UK democracy restored, we shall discuss, argue and vote and the people will collectively choose what course we follow.

That's how it's supposed to work.

 

Democracy has always been in conflict with "stability". We want liberty and prosperity, but most of all we want liberty.

Odd, I have no faith in UK democracy, far less than I have in EU democracy. The reason is that no matter what I vote for, I get a Labour MP and either a Labour or Tory government, neither of which fill me with hope.

 

If there is one possible positive outcome from Brexit it is that the Tories and Labour will shred themselves to pieces arguing about the core-issues that the reality of Post-Brexit will bring with it.

 

But it is nice of you to state unequivocally that there will most certainly be a period of instability.

[unbeliever]

Odd, I have no faith in UK democracy, far less than I have in EU democracy. The reason is that no matter what I vote for, I get a Labour MP and either a Labour or Tory government, neither of which fill me with hope.

 

We just had a referendum on changing the voting system. The people have spoken. Yet another string to the bow of UK democracy.

We prefer our system to a system where there is a perpetual coalition of the major parties and nothing changes.

All the same we got neither a Labour nor a Tory government in 2010. And we have a new party in the game these days moving the debate.

 

 

If there is one possible positive outcome from Brexit it is that the Tories and Labour will shred themselves to pieces arguing about the core-issues that the reality of Post-Brexit will bring with it.

 

 

Right because the mother of all parliaments will fall apart without the EU. What a ridiculous suggestion.

 

But it is nice of you to state unequivocally that there will most certainly be a period of instability.

 

Not what I said.

Edited April 16, 2016 by unbeliever

[tzijlstra]

How is it contrived and who said anything about dropping our standard of living? We're not going to compete with the developing world for manual labour. Where are you getting this from. If you're going to debate like this you might like to drop your sensitivity to others "putting words in [your] mouth".

 

Again - how come the vast majority of big business in the UK is prepared to stand up for the Remain campaign yet hardly any are supporting the Leave campaign? Because they all have assets in the EU as well as the UK, it is that simple. They aren't simply going to sell off those assets and invest the returns in the UK.

 

If that isn't what you are saying than, by all means, be clear in what you ARE saying, because I have not heard anything that comes remotely close to a feasible solution post Brexit that will benefit the UK.

[unbeliever]

Again - how come the vast majority of big business in the UK is prepared to stand up for the Remain campaign yet hardly any are supporting the Leave campaign? Because they all have assets in the EU as well as the UK, it is that simple. They aren't simply going to sell off those assets and invest the returns in the UK.

 

If that isn't what you are saying than, by all means, be clear in what you ARE saying, because I have not heard anything that comes remotely close to a feasible solution post Brexit that will benefit the UK.

 

Big businesses benefit from the regulatory regime of the EU because regulatory compliance costs do not scale with size. It gives them an advantage over smaller businesses.

Nobody is talking about anybody selling off anything. Those same businesses also generally have interests outside the EU. You talking like the EU operates in economic isolation which (despite its best efforts) it doesn't. Multi-nationals are here to stay and I don't have a problem with that.

 

On a case by case basis, trade will gradually and incrementally shift away from the EU toward the rest of the world.

Only an artificial trading environment can create a perpetual trade deficit.

[I1L2T3]

How long is this recovery from 2008 supposed to take? It's been 8 years. Could it be that the EU is weak generally and that's why it's struggling so much to deal with the 2008 problem?

No I don't know what will happen to the UK economy. I doubt it will be all roses. I don't believe for a second it will be disastrous. I do know that our trade deficit is down to trade with the EU and that it's unlikely to be corrected as long as our trade arrangements remain as they are.

I don't have a huge problem with foreign asset ownership. As long as Britons are also buying up assets overseas. It's the balance that matters.

 

It's the worst global economic crisis since 1929. Arguably recover from that didn't really start until the second world war was underway and mass rearmnament driven by heavy borrowing boosted the economy. Even after 1945 it was another decade before the economy really stabilised.

 

I can understand the clamour to leave. We are in pretty desperate times and sometimes that causes people to seek desperate solutions. I'm not sure exiting the EU in the current global economic climate would be a good thing. Voting to leave would worsen that climate further.

[retep]

Are you reading this Retep? There is a distinct difference in what you want and what others want from Brexit. That means that there will be no consensus and things will become difficult in the UK, the Tories are already split on the Brexit issue, this sort of thing will cause an even bigger divide.

 

Brexit will trigger a significant stability hit, both here and in the EU.

 

 

Yes the UK will become more stable, the EU seems to be becoming more unstable by the minute, hopefully the UK will keep it's nose out third time around.

[unbeliever]

It's the worst global economic crisis since 1929. Arguably recover from that didn't really start until the second world war was underway and mass rearmnament driven by heavy borrowing boosted the economy. Even after 1945 it was another decade before the economy really stabilised.

 

I can understand the clamour to leave. We are in pretty desperate times and sometimes that causes people to seek desperate solutions. I'm not sure exiting the EU in the current global economic climate would be a good thing. Voting to leave would worsen that climate further.

 

The single currency is severely hampering attempts to straighten out the problems arising from and/or exposed by the 2008 crisis. It could all have been sorted by now.