Who will succeed Cameron?

[alchresearch]

Was he a buffoon when he ran London all those years? Yes, he looked silly at photo ops (a bit like Bush Junior) but did he do a good job? Is his buffoonery an act?

[Brian Equato]

Hmm, if the "We will definately leave if there is an out vote" is a bluff to try to prevent some voters tactical Brexit voting to try and force better terms for staying in, I suspect an out vote won't be the end of the matter, the establishment desperately trying further sham negotiations to force another more heavily rigged referendum won't want an actual 'outer' to be in charge so maybe Cameron will survive.

The whole thing has resembled a giant game of poker, still not sure which side has a full house and which has a pair of threes.

[Eater Sundae]

Hmm, if the "We will definately leave if there is an out vote" is a bluff to try to prevent some voters tactical Brexit voting to try and force better terms for staying in, I suspect an out vote won't be the end of the matter, the establishment desperately trying further sham negotiations to force another more heavily rigged referendum won't want an actual 'outer' to be in charge so maybe Cameron will survive.

The whole thing has resembled a giant game of poker, still not sure which side has a full house and which has a pair of threes.

 

I don't know what the procedure or time table will be following a brexit vote, (and whether the government have to take any notice at all, a bit like Boaty McBoatface) but if there is a general election before the actual split, what's to stop any party standing on a manifesto of remaining in the EU, or even a brand new party being formed to ignore the mainstream parties and stand purely on a "stay" manifesto, Like a reverse UKIP.

[unbeliever]

I don't know what the procedure or time table will be following a brexit vote, (and whether the government have to take any notice at all, a bit like Boaty McBoatface) but if there is a general election before the actual split, what's to stop any party standing on a manifesto of remaining in the EU, or even a brand new party being formed to ignore the mainstream parties and stand purely on a "stay" manifesto, Like a reverse UKIP.

 

Even UKIP promised a referendum on Brexit, and not Brexit itself.

I can't see a reverse UKIP (or the Lib Dems as they're also known) doing otherwise.

[Quik]

I don't know what the procedure or time table will be following a brexit vote, (and whether the government have to take any notice at all, a bit like Boaty McBoatface) but if there is a general election before the actual split, what's to stop any party standing on a manifesto of remaining in the EU, or even a brand new party being formed to ignore the mainstream parties and stand purely on a "stay" manifesto, Like a reverse UKIP.

 

 

The timetable is 2 years from when HMG give the commision notice to quit. So theoretically its as long as the government like.

[Brian Equato]

I don't know what the procedure or time table will be following a brexit vote, (and whether the government have to take any notice at all, a bit like Boaty McBoatface) but if there is a general election before the actual split, what's to stop any party standing on a manifesto of remaining in the EU, or even a brand new party being formed to ignore the mainstream parties and stand purely on a "stay" manifesto, Like a reverse UKIP.

 

Plausible if Tory infighting after an out vote was sufficiently destructive and I don't believe the referendum has any legal status so a victorious party after any general election could claim that if it was voted in with remain in the manifesto that would override the referendum result.

[dangerousedd]

Was he a buffoon when he ran London all those years? Yes, he looked silly at photo ops (a bit like Bush Junior) but did he do a good job? Is his buffoonery an act?

 

boris does seem to be very intelligent I just think he puts on the aristocratic buffoon act seems to give him more leeway politically.

[Andy1976]

All over before the polling stations even open...

Or perhaps you'd just like to think that.

 

Do you remember that the result of the last election was apparently certain according to the surveys and polls, and then those same results were proved very, very wrong, when the Tories won their majority (that no one predicted).

[L00b]

The timetable is 2 years from when HMG give the commision notice to quit. So theoretically its as long as the government like.

The theory is unlikely to be tested in practice:

When would Article 50 be triggered?

 

The Prime Minister’s spokeswoman said today “a vote to leave is a vote to leave” and suggested that Article 50 would be triggered immediately if the referendum vote were for Leave. This was confirmed by David Cameron in the House of Commons, adding that Article 50 is the only way to leave. When it is triggered is ultimately up to the UK government but it is hard to imagine that it could be significantly delayed after a leave vote. Some have suggested that, since the EU cannot throw the UK out, one way would be for the UK government to use a No vote in the referendum as a de facto negotiating mandate. But this would depend on the EU’s willingness to negotiate an exit before Article 50 was triggered.

 

Similarly, any alternative mechanism for exit would need to be devised and agreed by the rest of the EU – a significant gesture of goodwill. Nevertheless, any potential agreement the UK struck with the EU at any point after withdrawal would come up against the same dynamics as Article 50, most notably requiring approval by EU leaders, MEPs and national parliaments. Therefore, unless the UK is truly prepared to ‘go it alone’, any ‘unilateral withdrawal’ option is tricky.

 

From Open Europe (Pro-Brexit)

[Quik]

The theory is unlikely to be tested in practice:

 

 

From Open Europe (Pro-Brexit)

 

Cameron won't be PM if we leave. I would think there will be at least a year of figuring out what we want before triggering the formal 2 year process.