Who will succeed Cameron?

[andyofborg]

.... article 50 needs to be triggered sooner rather than later.

 

While article 50 needs to be triggered in a timely manner, we can't do it too soon. We need to decide what our negotiating position is before we do this.

 

Given the complexity of the task ahead 2 years is not a long time. We need our position pretty much finalised before we trigger article 50

[I1L2T3]

While article 50 needs to be triggered in a timely manner, we can't do it too soon. We need to decide what our negotiating position is before we do this.

 

Given the complexity of the task ahead 2 years is not a long time. We need our position pretty much finalised before we trigger article 50

 

Very true. We need to understand what trade model we want, single market access, whether we will allow free movement, how much we are willing to contribute to the EU budget, and we need to define a multitiude of other initial negotiating positions.

[Flanker7]

I thought Theresa May has made it clear there would be no General Election until 2020. The last thing the country needs is a coalition Government. The Conservative's were roughly 50-50 for BREXIT,* which reflects how the nation voted, and all the candidates say BREXIT will happen.

 

Yes, I would be happy if it was sorted next week.

 

In a 2 horse race 50/50 is 50/50. Its not for either side?

 

'Radans' figures for MP votes in the referendum - " All 8 Lib Dem MPs backed Remain. As did all the SDLP. The DUP backed Brexit. Plaid Cymru and the SNP all backed remain. Sinn Fein backed remain.

10 Labour MPs backed Brexit and about a third of the Tories."

 

*my bold

 

There are 330 Conservative MP's in this government. The difference between 50/50 and 66/33 is 55 votes so I think that makes a difference.

 

I understand that the Conservative way of selecting their leader is for their MP's to select 2 candidates for the membership to choose between. Therefore, for the Conservative party members, it will never be 3 men and 2 women on the ballot sheet.

 

It's important to get the numbers and systems accurate before drawing arguments from them.

Edited July 3, 2016 by Flanker7

[Radan]

*my bold

 

In a 2 horse race 50/50 is 50/50. Its not for either side?

 

'Radans' figures for MP votes in the referendum - " All 8 Lib Dem MPs backed Remain. As did all the SDLP. The DUP backed Brexit. Plaid Cymru and the SNP all backed remain. Sinn Fein backed remain.

10 Labour MPs backed Brexit and about a third of the Tories."

 

There are 330 Conservative MP's in this government. The difference between 50/50 and 66/33 is 55 votes so I think that makes a difference.

 

I understand that the Conservative way of selecting their leader is for their MP's to select 2 candidates for the membership to choose between. Therefore, for the Conservative party members, it will never be 3 men and 2 women on the ballot sheet.

 

It's important to get the numbers and systems accurate before drawing arguments from them.

 

Correct about two names on the party member ballot form. Tory MPs narrow it down to those two. It's not unconceivable that with May having 4 times the number of backers at this early stage that she might get the job by default though.

 

Edit: sorry didn't realise you were amending your post as I wrote mine

Edited July 3, 2016 by Radan

[Gamston]

In a 2 horse race 50/50 is 50/50. Its not for either side?

 

'Radans' figures for MP votes in the referendum - " All 8 Lib Dem MPs backed Remain. As did all the SDLP. The DUP backed Brexit. Plaid Cymru and the SNP all backed remain. Sinn Fein backed remain.

10 Labour MPs backed Brexit and about a third of the Tories."

 

*my bold

 

There are 330 Conservative MP's in this government. The difference between 50/50 and 66/33 is 55 votes so I think that makes a difference.

 

I understand that the Conservative way of selecting their leader is for their MP's to select 2 candidates for the membership to choose between. Therefore, for the Conservative party members, it will never be 3 men and 2 women on the ballot sheet.

 

It's important to get the numbers and systems accurate before drawing arguments from them.

Fair enough, if the Conservatives members get a vote, then you are correct. I was obviously commenting about the choice for the MP's on Tuesday. My point is the Conservative Party had a significant amount of MP's for and against BREXIT unlike the other parties, whose MP's were mainly to remain in the EU which was their parties policy. I am ignoring UKIP's one MP and the DUP.

 

Looking on the positive outlook, the Conservative Party will choose the next Prime Minister and will be responsible for negotiating BREXIT which is the best situation the country could be in, given the circumstances.

[El Cid]

There has been 3 programs on radio four in the past few days about Stephen Crabb, are the BBC trying to tell us something, just hope he becomes leader of the Conservatives, as I stand to win a few quid, not looking good tho.

[Justin Smith]

Andrea Leadsom, and by implication many of the Leave campaign, just don`t get it. "Don't` be afraid" she, rather patronisingly, tells the huge number of people who want to stay in the EU. I`m not "afraid" love, I just want to remain a European citizen just as much as I want to remain a British citizen. I`m very angry that, apparently, I`m officially no longer a European citizen. No amount of patronising sound bites will paper over that chasm.

[Mister M]

Quite possibly. Would that be how you'd like to see it played out?

 

I think May has hinted she might want a GE election before committing to Brexit. That could be risky. Tory party members might vote against her so Leadsom becomes PM and the Tories can arrange Brexit before 2020. A snap election might mean a coalition government.

 

"I don’t think the UK should leave the EU, I think it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty at a time when the tectonic plates of global success are moving".

 

Andrea Leadsom, Hansard Society April 2013

[Eater Sundae]

The vote is on Tuesday, then discussions will start based on the results. If Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom are the two clear leading candidates, then a deal could be done between them, such as Andrea Leadsom being given the job as BREXIT Minister in a Theresa May cabinet. All this is assuming the no hoper candidates withdraw.

 

If AL thinks she can win the rank and file vote she's not going to consider an agreement. I see this going all the way.

 

---------- Post added 04-07-2016 at 21:52 ----------

 

"I don’t think the UK should leave the EU, I think it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty at a time when the tectonic plates of global success are moving".

 

Andrea Leadsom, Hansard Society April 2013

 

These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others.

 

(Attributed to Groucho Marx, I think).

[Gamston]

If AL thinks she can win the rank and file vote she's not going to consider an agreement. I see this going all the way.

I think whoever the new leader is should have the support of the majority of Conservative MPs. It would not be good if the Conservative members choose a candidate who does not have the backing of most of the MPs. The Labour Party is the perfect example of problems which occur when members of a party wishes are different to those of the MPs. Also there is a massive difference between the urgency in selecting a leader when in Government than in opposition.

 

We will have a better idea shortly after 6.00 pm tonight.