Referendum polling how is it counted.

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Hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls in an attempt to make profits from the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership next month.

 

By finding out the voting patterns early on June 23 and predicting the result, entrepreneurial traders can lay big bets on the result, hoping to be the first to benefit financially from a government-induced swing in sterling since George Soros bet against the pound when it crashed out of the then European exchange rate mechanism in 1992.

 

Early indications of the likely result in the referendum will be indirectly visible from foreign exchange and sterling derivative markets before the polls close, if big money is bet on the result.

 

 

 

The hedge funds are exploiting Electoral Commission rules that permit exit polls on the day of the referendum so long as they are not published until polls close at 10pm.

 

Polling companies are finding demand high for their private services on referendum day. “Hedge funds have asked for exit polls and for hourly polls on the day. Banks are certainly commissioning polls for their own consumption that are never released,” said one pollster.

 

Another pollster said his firm was getting lots of calls from asset managers asking when their next research was coming out: “We are also being asked if we will do polls on the day. People in the City are wanting a head start.”

 

The cost of a rudimentary exit poll where researchers record votes electronically and send them to headquarters is about £500,000, according to a source in the investment management industry. That is far lower than the potential profits available from finding out whether Leave or Remain is likely to win.

 

So far, sterling has behaved predictably to ups and downs in the opinion polls, regaining strength recently as the betting odds have suggested the chances of a Remain victory are as high as 80 per cent.

 

A significant move in sterling is guaranteed on the result of the vote, with a modest rise expected if Remain wins and a sharp drop anticipated if there is a vote for Brexit.

 

Financial markets have recently all but discounted a Leave vote, according to Adam Cole of RBC Capital Markets. “The UK’s implied EU exit risk premium has collapsed to the point where the implied probability of exit is close to the level before last May’s election, when few thought there would even be a referendum,” he said, raising the prospect of wild swings in sterling if Leave appears to be doing well on June 23.

 

 

UK’s EU Referendum: How people would vote

 

 

 

For a more detailed summary of opinion polling visit the FT’s Brexit poll tracker page

 

 

 

But hedge funds will need to be careful in reading too much into early results from exit polls, because online opinion polls have found Leave voters much keener to register their views quickly than Remain voters.

 

Voters will be able to deduce who traders think is winning the vote from looking at the price of insurance against large gains or losses in the value of sterling on the day and into the evening as the broadcasters have not commissioned a large exit poll.

 

Any exit polls are likely to be less reliable than the one after the 2015 general election because that relied on an analysis of the change in voting shares for different political parties in polling stations that had also been surveyed in 2010.

 

Polling companies have no prior data on past vote patterns to calibrate any results they get from private exit polls.

[cgksheff]

Thank you.

 

 

Hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned private exit polls in an attempt to make profits from the result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership next month. ................

[Obelix]

Postal votes have not been counted. There is a facility for taking postal votes to polling stations.

 

They certainly have been. They are sorted and counted before the polling day.

 

Postal ballots that are handed in at a polling station are checked for validity and then counted and added to the ballot box results but are still recorded as a postal vote so they can see how many are being sent out and return rate.

 

---------- Post added 23-06-2016 at 16:48 ----------

 

Announced by constituency through the night?

 

Will there be an Exit Poll?

 

Might get some foreign beer in...

 

Expected timings for when places will declare....

 

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/excel_doc/0006/206088/EURef_timingvenue_KK.xlsx

[cgksheff]

They certainly have been. They are sorted and counted before the polling day.

 

Postal ballots that are handed in at a polling station are checked for validity and then counted and added to the ballot box results but are still recorded as a postal vote so they can see how many are being sent out and return rate.

 

---------- Post added 23-06-2016 at 16:48 ----------

 

 

Expected timings for when places will declare....

 

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/excel_doc/0006/206088/EURef_timingvenue_KK.xlsx

 

It depends what you mean by counted.

 

How postal vote ballots have been cast, in or out, are only sorted and counted along with all the other ballots at the "count".

 

The only counting done prior to this is when checking those envelopes returned and their validity.

As mentioned earlier, Postal Votes can be handed in up to 10pm tonight.

[max]

They certainly have been. They are sorted and counted before the polling day.

 

Nope, we'll be watching them count them tonight. They get sorted and counted when the polls close and before the ballot boxes from the polling stations are opened.

[InigoMontoya]

Announced by constituency through the night?

 

Will there be an Exit Poll?

 

Might get some foreign beer in...

 

No, by local authority

 

and no, no exit poll