blake Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 An exit poll loses reliability if it is only taken from voters who vote in the morning. Some people vote in the morning. Others, in the afternoon. Others still, at night. The polls are open from 7am until 10pm. If a currency speculator is getting a rumour in the early afternoon, that exit polls indicate one side or the other, while it's better than nothing, it''s not a reliable sample. The people who vote in the morning, say from 7am-12, and people who vote at night, i.e. 5pm-10pm, are not the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackbeard Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The BBC maybe able to offer some advice on the holiday money question. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36562378 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I'm going on holiday in August, but wondered if it would be a good idea to change money into Euros before the referendum on Thursday, rather than wait until August. Will the pound fall? And if so will it be temporary? If we vote to leave then the pound will crash hard. If we vote to stay then it will bounce, because it's currently already fallen a lot. Personally, I'd wait, leave is (thankfully) looking less and less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 If we vote to leave then the pound will crash hard. If we vote to stay then it will bounce, because it's currently already fallen a lot. Personally, I'd wait, leave is (thankfully) looking less and less likely. 2/9 remain 3/1 leave The polls say neck and neck but based on the assumption more people are risk averse and will choose the safest option on the day (in theory) It looks more and more likely to be a remain vote. I'd be shocked if leave win now at this late stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 So the bookies are betting on a stay vote... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFKvsNixon Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 So the bookies are betting on a stay vote... Remember the odds sometimes only reflect the risk to the bookmaker of losing money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Remember the odds sometimes only reflect the risk to the bookmaker of losing money. And the probability of an event happening. It's not just where the money goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFKvsNixon Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 (edited) And the probability of an event happening. It's not just where the money goes. Hence why I said sometimes. It's why England sometimes have short odds in international competitions. It's not that the bookmakers think that there is a good chance of us winning the tournaments, it's just that they're getting a lot of money bet on England to win. If there had been a run of bets made by people who thought that the Brexit odds had good value, then the odds would have dropped. Edited June 21, 2016 by JFKvsNixon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomjames Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Hence why I said sometimes. What's happened is the money has been piling in for LEAVE, and as the odds are corrected and improve for a REMAIN vote, the money starts flowing the other way. The bookies still have weigh up all the factors and do their research and set odds accordingly. The referendum isn't like a horse race either, there's no 'inside knowledge' or form to go on. Sometimes with a horse race they just know a horse isn't going to win. Bookies get it wrong but not in this case I feel. ---------- Post added 21-06-2016 at 12:53 ---------- If there had been a run of bets made by people who thought that the Brexit odds had good value, then the odds would have dropped. The odds did drop. 4 out of 5 bets at one point were on leave. It went to 5/4 briefly and now it's drifted to 3/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alchresearch Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 No exit polls: The tension will be greater than normal general election nights because the major broadcasters have not commissioned any exit polls over concerns about accuracy. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/when-are-the-eu-referendum-results-what-time-will-we-know-the-wi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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