unbeliever Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Sorry I was referring to the GE exit polls... Oh yes, those were excellent. Bang on the money. The exit poll experts made it clear that they could not apply their system to the referendum though, so it's not surprising that there were some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banjodeano Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 I think this is a mechanism to force a leadership election with Corbyn refusing to trigger one by resigning. I would have thought more substantial challengers will emerge once that's dealt with. ---------- Post added 30-06-2016 at 13:49 ---------- I don't believe he does. I think that being the incumbent he can run anyway. Any Labour members around who know the rules? some info on the rules here http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-legal-advice-automatically-on-ballot-leadership-challenge_uk_577003cfe4b0d2571149d42a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geared Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 To be honest I was dubious of this when I first heard about the claim, but when you start to analyse the data from the last General Election it does ring true. Leave 52% Remain 48% Last election Tories 37% Labour 30% UKIP 13% Libdem 8% SNP 4% Others 8% UKIP you can say 13% for leave. Libdems mostly remain so assume 7% SNP mostly remain so say 3.5% Tories before the vote 65% to leave 35% to stay. Leave therefore calculated as: Total 52% UKIP 13% Tories 25% Others 4% SNP 0.5% Libdem 1% The other 9% left would appear to come from a third of those who vote Labour. Obviously we’ll never know the exact figures but this does seem reasonably likely. You've 'analysed' the data by making a ton of assumptions :confused: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eater Sundae Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 (edited) Were they? I stayed up for the counting and the markets didn't react until it was clear that the actual count pointed toward leave. I remember hearing the Newcastle and Sunderland results, which seemed to indicate a leave result (based purely on the BBC version of swingometer). It seemed pretty clear by then, but I don't recall any sort ofbexit poll at that stage. Edit. Oops, now seen the later posts. Edited June 30, 2016 by Eater Sundae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foxy lady Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 You've 'analysed' the data by making a ton of assumptions :confused: The biggest assumption being that when a stranger approaches you after you have voted in a private ballot that you answer his questions and don't tell him to sod off. In some places answering the wrong way can lead to your car getting keyed, which is why many in Gateshead voted leave but probably answered the questions based on the views of their local MP. ---------- Post added 30-06-2016 at 17:43 ---------- some info on the rules here http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-legal-advice-automatically-on-ballot-leadership-challenge_uk_577003cfe4b0d2571149d42a That is excellent news. We don't want him to go quietly. There's the Labour Party to destroy first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penistone999 Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 The biggest assumption being that when a stranger approaches you after you have voted in a private ballot that you answer his questions and don't tell him to sod off. In some places answering the wrong way can lead to your car getting keyed, which is why many in Gateshead voted leave but probably answered the questions based on the views of their local MP. ---------- Post added 30-06-2016 at 17:43 ---------- That is excellent news. We don't want him to go quietly. There's the Labour Party to destroy first. Labour have done that themselves very nicely this week . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Titanic99 Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 You've 'analysed' the data by making a ton of assumptions :confused: The analysis comes from how people voted at the last election and what we know of which way they were likely to vote. Yep assumptions made, but I would suggest Poling shows them to be consistent with the results. I'm not a huge fan of Corbyns, but I have to say this looks like a huge witch-hunt to me. He clearly got the Labour vote out to remain, they've won the mayor of London race, they've done well in by-elections and they've improved in Council elections. If Andy Burnham had've won the leadership race people would be saying what a good job he is doing with these results, but for some reason the establishment are going after Corbyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penistone999 Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 The analysis comes from how people voted at the last election and what we know of which way they were likely to vote. Yep assumptions made, but I would suggest Poling shows them to be consistent with the results. I'm not a huge fan of Corbyns, but I have to say this looks like a huge witch-hunt to me. He clearly got the Labour vote out to remain, they've won the mayor of London race, they've done well in by-elections and they've improved in Council elections. If Andy Burnham had've won the leadership race people would be saying what a good job he is doing with these results, but for some reason the establishment are going after Corbyn. Corbyn is a far left militant , thats why the unions are supporting him right now. There is no place in modern society for far left politics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radan Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 Corbyn is a far left militant , thats why the unions are supporting him right now. There is no place in modern society for far left politics. In the other thread you say the Tories are too left wing for you. Your politics sound somewhere between Nigel Farage and Mussolini. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penistone999 Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 In the other thread you say the Tories are too left wing for you. Your politics sound somewhere between Nigel Farage and Mussolini. The tories have gone too far left for my liking , yes. Hence why im now a UKIP voter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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