The consequence thread (Brexit)

[mrcharlie]

 

Ever since the deregulation of the banks and the rise of the Yuppies in the late 80s (remember them?) it's all been about money, money and more money. People have become nastier and nastier, more grasping, and cutthroat, desperately trying to claw their way to the top of the greasy pole. Kindness and caring now seem to be seen as a weakness, and certainly seem to leave people in a weaker position.

A lot of the problems that have beset this country in the last 20 years can be traced back to that, including this referendum. Maybe it will prove cathartic. Maybe it will lead to improvements, who knows? But things have to change.

 

I agree with that 100%

[tzijlstra]

Then you are not watching Juncker closely enough. The drunken dog wants revenge and has been very clear he want's to 'punish' us.

 

So cut the commision out and deal with the nations. They all need us for something.

 

We can show the peoples of Europe that the scum they let rule over them have neither our nor our interests at heart - only their own.

 

Don't tell me I didn't warn you when the revolving door comes back to hit Britain in the back. Either the UK appoints a leader who signs the declaration that means that relations with Europe will change forever, or it comes back to the EU with bent back and several teeth missing. The latter won't happen; Juncker is conveying the right message, we don't want you back, you have played us. If that makes him a dirty dog, than I am proud to back that dirty dog. A lot prouder than I am of any Tory turncoat.

 

I am renewing my membership of the LibDems (Apt slogan - Join the 48%) and D66 (Dutch Democrats) and will campaign for the Dutch to start introducing new democratic measures in the EU, to reconnect it with the people and to make sure people understand how the EU works, not just the children (who overwhelmingly do) but especially the grumpy old voters that feel betrayed and disenfranchised.

[L00b]

well it would be nice if we could conclude all this without too much damage to the economy

I had an idea that this is what you meant, andy, but I'm afraid it is far, far too late.

 

The golden goose is walking off. The dominos are all starting to fall, as expected and foretold.

 

This is exactly why No.10 hasn't got the luxury of time, about the article 50 declaration. The longer it puts it off, the more tax base walks off. Public budgets and services are the ultimate victims.

Edited June 26, 2016 by L00b

[tzijlstra]

I had an idea that this is what you meant, andy, but I'm afraid it is far, far too late.

 

The golden goose is walking off. The dominos are all falling, as expected and foretold.

 

This is exactly why No.10 hasn't got the luxury of time, about the article 50 declaration. The longer it puts it off, the more tax base walks off. Public budgets and services are the ultimate victims.

 

The other thing that is emerging is this - The Leave camp now clearly has to choose, whether it likes it or not, between their pals in shiny banking-offices in London and the voters who put the boot in.

 

Without freedom of movement of goods and people (ie. an EEA style membership) the UK can put Passporting on the scrap-heap, it won't be negotiable, it costs the EU lots of money. But an EEA-style membership also means that the people here still have to accept EU law (Bye bye sovereignty argument) immigration (bye bye) and payments into the EU budget (Bye bye 350 million a week).

 

That is an awful lot for Boris/Gove/whoever to take away from the people. It will not be pretty. But I can see Johnson doing it, anybody listening to his speech knows he is already softening the tone dramatically.

[Justin Smith]

I`m not sure if this subject is buried in another thread so I`ll start this one, moderators can move it if they feel that`s right. I don`t as it happens this should be a subject all on its own, i.e. easily findable.

 

Has anyone added their name to the petition calling for a rerun of the referendum ? When I signed it it had nearly 1.8 million signatures.

Their argument is no the one I`d have used its :

 

EU Referendum Rules triggering a 2nd EU Referendum

 

We the undersigned call upon HM Government to implement a rule that if the remain or leave vote is less than 60% based a turnout less than 75% there should be another referendum.

 

I think a stronger argument would be that the electorate were lied to with the infamous statistic (which, apparently, a large number of the less informed electorate actually believed) about the £350 million pounds a week the EU cost us. Even Farage admits that was a lie.

I`m 100% certain that if the referendum was rerun there would be a different result. People would be voting on what has actrually happened in the last 36 hours, and what could happen in Scotland etc. I also think that people under 16 should be given the vote in this particular referendum (not General Elections) on the basis they`re definitely going to be affected by it for the rest of their lives.

 

Remember this isn`t like a General Election, once we`re definitely out, that`s it.

 

I`m even more certain if the referendum was rerun there`d be a different result. That said, I`m assuming that leave voters did so for rational reasons, maybe they didn`t ? What`s the latest ? The French are seriously considering stopping UK border controls in France and already HSBC are planning to move 1000 high paying jobs to Paris. Two things that the Leave campaign said would never happen.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Justin Smith

[petemcewan]

Only time will tell in respect of the military consequences.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/opinion/the-security-consequences-of-brexit.html?_r=0

[Eater Sundae]

The other thing that is emerging is this - The Leave camp now clearly has to choose, whether it likes it or not, between their pals in shiny banking-offices in London and the voters who put the boot in.

 

Without freedom of movement of goods and people (ie. an EEA style membership) the UK can put Passporting on the scrap-heap, it won't be negotiable, it costs the EU lots of money. But an EEA-style membership also means that the people here still have to accept EU law (Bye bye sovereignty argument) immigration (bye bye) and payments into the EU budget (Bye bye 350 million a week).

 

That is an awful lot for Boris/Gove/whoever to take away from the people. It will not be pretty. But I can see Johnson doing it, anybody listening to his speech knows he is already softening the tone dramatically.

 

From where we are now, that's the least worst option. The worst of both worlds, though. The costs without any opportunity to influence future change.

 

Also, in the long term, it will probably increase the resentment of "them" in faraway Brussels as they still impact on our lives.

 

But as long as we still have someone to blame, we'll still feel OK about ourselves, I guess.

 

Sad times ahead.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Eater Sundae

[hillsbro]

...The French are seriously considering stopping UK border controls in France...

The UK border controls at Calais were established by the "Le Touquet Agreement" and are nothing to do with EU membership. The agreement can be ended by either side by giving two years' notice. This applies whether or not either country is an EU member. But last October the French Interior Minister, Bernard Cazeneuve, said "Calling for the border with the English to be opened is not a responsible solution. It would send a signal to people smugglers and would lead migrants to flow to Calais in far greater numbers – a humanitarian disaster would ensue. It is a foolhardy path; the government will not pursue it". See this Guardian article for example.

[andyofborg]

If he does, i think LABOUR, in the high brexit areas will get hammered by UKIP. Labour just have not supported their core voters, unless Corbyn gets real and shows is true beliefs.

 

The problem with that is that corbyn's true beliefs don't see much of a problem with high levels of immigration and that might not play well in the high brexit areas. He made some comments about this over the last few days.

 

Leaving that aside then most of the rest of his beliefs will probably play well with the core voters, he gave a speech yesterday and the content was all good stuff which would appeal to the core vote, and me for that matter. I'm sure you can find it online if you look.

 

The wider problem of the labour party is that just appealing to the core vote will not produce a government. Corbyn is from the wing of the party which produced the longest suicide note in history. Producing version 2 of that will have the same effect. To produce a government the party needs to do what Blair and New Labour did and appeal to the non core vote. It's true that Blair and New Labour lost the plot but that doesn't change the need for the party to appeal to those outside his core vote.

 

Corbyn himself has an image problem and that is a real problem. He could offer a vision that 80% of the population would willingly subscribe to but hardly anyone would listen. It's sad and it's shallow but he needs to present himself and his message in a way which works in today's media age.

 

---------- Post added 26-06-2016 at 08:35 ----------

 

This is exactly why No.10 hasn't got the luxury of time, about the article 50 declaration. The longer it puts it off, the more tax base walks off. Public budgets and services are the ultimate victims.

 

Indeed and that's why the thrust of my arguments over the last 20 pages has been that it should be done now if not sooner.

[I1L2T3]

I`m even more certain if the referendum was rerun there`d be a different result. That said, I`m assuming that leave voters did so for rational reasons, maybe they didn`t ? What`s the latest ? The French are seriously considering stopping UK border controls in France and already HSBC are planning to move 1000 high paying jobs to Paris. Two things that the Leave campaign said would never happen.

 

I think we would get a different result. It's 50/50 whether it will happen.

 

The downsides are now becoming clearer and the vision (which will make no mistake would have been based on a modified very socially conservative elitist agenda which was to rewind much of the progressive change the EU has given us) completely undeliverable and incompatible with the needs and wants of the wider constituency (the poor, disadvantaged, neglected, unemployed and underemployed masses in declining regions) that drove the vote through.

 

The younger voters are now becoming mobilised too. And again the leave vision is not what they want.

 

The vision is not what is demanded by business either. No big business will have been caught on the hop by this and will already have plans. The (FTSE-listed) company I work for which is UK based but operates around the globe and does much of its business in the EU already has plans in place. We were emailed about them before the referendum.

 

The leave camp are deep in it. They have lied and they can't deliver.

 

Needless, we have to plough on with the process because if we don't the uncertainty will grow and grow and the economic damage will be greater.