The consequence thread (Brexit)

[samssong]

So consequences so far (as in actual events that happened) -

 

Tories in Leadership crisis - currently Boris Johnson odds on to become the man to take the UK out of the EU.

 

Labour in complete meltdown - Corbyn's position under threat, but he seems to be rooting out the dissidents (again...), rumours that Corbyn himself has frustrated the Labour campaign to Remain. If true, that could trigger further contest to his position.

 

SNP only party still standing. Sturgeon playing a blinder in the press and politically so far. No matter what happens, it is clear that the Scots are going to have a huge impact.

 

Sinn Fein is calling for a border poll. Whether they get it or not, Brexit will definitely have an impact on free movement between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

 

Gibraltar is reeling. After a local Spain/UK referendum they wanted to stay in the UK, new referendum and they wanted to stay in the EU... Nobody really understands what is going on there anymore.

 

EU is pushing for quick decisions, they don't want their economy to suffer because of this situation.

 

 

Conclusion: Establishment has been rocked. Nobody knows what to do next it appears. If, as seems likely, Boris gets the keys to the Aston Martin, he will likely go for the option whereby the UK do not renege on the single market, he has repeatedly said that access to the single market is crucial. How he is going to marry that with: Not sending money to the EU, reducing migration, not being subject to EU law anymore, as well as covering the shortfall in local authority budgets, university budgets and so on is a mystery.

Right wing parties in both Holland and France are now calling for their own referendum ,some thing that did not happen in the U.K by the way.

[apelike]

 

---------- Post added 26-06-2016 at 15:13 ----------

 

surfing round the net then opinion seems divided

 

I cant understand how they could as it does not go to parliament for a vote so SMP's dont have any say in the matter.

[tzijlstra]

Right wing parties in both Holland and France are now calling for their own referendum ,some thing that did not happen in the U.K by the way.

 

As is their democratic right. If they achieve the required majority/political support they can call their own referendum. It will be decided in elections, as it should be.

 

It did happen here by the way, remember that the Tories won a surprise majority, it doesn't take a genius to realise now that the promise of a referendum was mostly the reason for that.

[tinfoilhat]

Another not unrelated consequence of brexit is president Donald trump. I'll put money on it now.

[ricgem2002]

You have no idea how insulting you come across here.

but when that practice is how migrants get to work in australia its accepted yet when we want it here its against their human rights let me ask you tim how would you bring about a balance that suits the uk eh?

[dangerousedd]

Another not unrelated consequence of brexit is president Donald trump. I'll put money on it now.

 

 

Hillary will win I wouldn't gamble on trump winning it.

[andyofborg]

I cant understand how they could as it does not go to parliament for a vote so SMP's dont have any say in the matter.

 

there are certain bills which westminster passes which affect scotland, these are supposed to be confirmed by the scottish parliament.

 

references to eu law and such like are all over the scotland act so it seems likely that some sort of consent will be needed.

 

whether it's actually needed or not is a matter for the lawyers to argue.

 

regardless of whether consent is a nice to have or an absolute requirement how westminster handles the matter is going to have a major impact on how people feel about leaving the union.

 

whoever becomes pm is going to be the man who takes us out of the eu, though most of the historical blame for that will attach to cameron.

 

i suppose it all depends on how much the new pm feels about going down in history as being the man who destroyed the british union.

[Radan]

Another not unrelated consequence of brexit is president Donald trump. I'll put money on it now.

 

Really? What makes you think that?

 

I think Trump has skeletons and Hilary will get nasty. Can't see Brexit making a difference but who knows, if there's another ISIS inspired atrocity he will probably win.

 

---------- Post added 26-06-2016 at 15:45 ----------

 

but when that practice is how migrants get to work in australia its accepted yet when we want it here its against their human rights let me ask you tim how would you bring about a balance that suits the uk eh?

 

Human rights? It's against free movement of people nothing to do with ECHR.

 

---------- Post added 26-06-2016 at 15:48 ----------

 

there are certain bills which westminster passes which affect scotland, these are supposed to be confirmed by the scottish parliament.

 

references to eu law and such like are all over the scotland act so it seems likely that some sort of consent will be needed.

 

whether it's actually needed or not is a matter for the lawyers to argue.

 

regardless of whether consent is a nice to have or an absolute requirement how westminster handles the matter is going to have a major impact on how people feel about leaving the union.

 

whoever becomes pm is going to be the man who takes us out of the eu, though most of the historical blame for that will attach to cameron.

 

i suppose it all depends on how much the new pm feels about going down in history as being the man who destroyed the british union.

 

There is no immediate danger of Scottish independence. You can't march into the EU. There are 35 criteria. An independent Scotland won't meet them all.

 

Sturgeon is posturing, as was expected, but she is unbelievably naive.

[tinfoilhat]

Really? What makes you think that?

 

I think Trump has skeletons and Hilary will get nasty. Can't see Brexit making a difference but who knows, if there's another ISIS inspired atrocity he will probably win.

 

---------- Post added 26-06-2016 at 15:45 ----------

 

 

Human rights? It's against free movement of people nothing to do with ECHR.

 

I think it's the start of a domino effect. The Americans have seen us "sticking it to the establishment" and giving them foreigners what for. We aren't Greece or Venezuela we are still a major world power who rightly or wrongly has tossed away membership of the EU, immigrants,the establishment and our senses in general.

 

Trump next. Le Pen afterwards? I might go for an "acca" (I think that's the term).

[tzijlstra]

Another not unrelated consequence of brexit is president Donald trump. I'll put money on it now.

 

No, I think it might have in fact stopped Trump's rise dead in its tracks. Even Bernie now supports Hillary after he saw what playing with fire can do. We will see though, I was wrong about Brexit as well.

 

but when that practice is how migrants get to work in australia its accepted yet when we want it here its against their human rights

 

No it isn't accepted, it is different. Australia never signed up for the free movement of people and goods. They have their own constitution. The UK and EU share(d) a constitution of sorts that had free movement of people and goods at its core. I came here as part of that, I suspect l00b did as well and so did the other migrants. That understanding is now being revoked and nullified, or at least is under threat.

 

I don't expect you to understand, I didn't until I experienced it first hand.

 

let me ask you tim how would you bring about a balance that suits the uk eh?

 

The balance already suited the UK, it got to set its own agenda whilst part of the EU. It didn't have to join the Euro or Schengen. It was able to agree on Passporting for the banks and develop its own financial centre as being a global one. It got access to labour, whether skilled or unskilled, enabling it to attract huge amounts of foreign investment due to the combination of the availability of labour and low taxes.

 

What I would have done, years ago, was alter the way the benefit system in the UK works, from the ground up, as soon as it became clear there were migrants coming here because of it. Just like the Dutch did, just like the Germans did, just like the Latvians, the Austrians, the Hungarians and so on and so on did. I would have worked with the EU to ensure that there is a working, supra-national framework in place to prevent 'benefit migration' and to ensure that only those with a job were eligible for the same rights that common British workers are eligible for. That all would have been possible, years ago. It never happened. The UK government was seemingly happy to A) get migrants in and B) To claim it would bring it down whilst doing sweet f all to do so.

You voted out the EU because what I just described is what you wanted and your own, national, government didn't deliver it. I have warned you a dozen times, personally, that nothing would change by leaving the EU.

 

I have just had insight in a Twitter conversation with a Tory Leave activist who openly states she wants and expects an EEA style agreement to begin with, slowly building down to an EFTA style agreement over time. (which actually is sensible, but they never mentioned this during their campaign which is disingenuous)

 

An EEA style agreement means the only difference resulting from Brexit is that the UK does not have a right to discuss matters in Europe any more. It will still have open borders, it will still pay the EU, it will still be subject to EU law.

 

That transitions into an EFTA agreement, that means that the UK would not be subject to open borders any more. But it would still be subject to EU law and would have to pay the EU for membership.

 

How does that translate to what they promised you in the Leave campaign? Didn't they promise you, and didn't you vote for, the understanding that the UK would not pay the EU any more, it would no longer be subject to EU law?

 

Well, that doesn't look plausible at the moment. In fact, if we don't get someone in charge PDQ nothing looks plausible. The country is in a proper political crisis.