The consequence thread (Brexit)

[runningman1]

If the result went the other way the leavers would be doing the same and you know it. Nigel is on record saying 48/52 would be unfinished business and the petition was set up by leavers in case of a remain win.

 

Never try to appeal to the logic of a leaver. They ignore experts and facts.

 

RULE BRITANIA

[Eater Sundae]

As a country we've got used to swinging from one political philosophy to another with our first past the post system. Not ideal, in my opinion, as it forces voters to accept a whole range of ideas, some of which they don't like, and much less chance of reaching any sort of consensus, as people are forced along narrow party lines.

 

Also, it is inefficient to keep moving from one philosophy to another and back agqin.

 

But at least if we get a decision wrong we can do something about it and change either way every 5 years. So a mistake is not irreversible.

 

Doesn't quite work the same when the logic is applied to an EU referendum.

[L00b]

Tim, personal Brexit consequence here: I need your honest feedback here, as I just got headhunted by an Amsterdam-based global business last night, and the job is based there...and I'm finding myself not uhm-ing and ah-ing as much as usual

 

(i) realistically, what are the chances of a Nexit in the medium term? (don't fancy jumping from the pan into the fire )

 

(ii) ballpark differential in cost of living relative to Sheffield, roughly? (how much do I multiply my current £ to maintain living standards, also bearing taxation in mind? )

 

I'll not base my decision on that info of course, but it'd help to get an idea from the horse's mouth, as it were. I've done the relocation and capital city-based work a couple of times before, but it'd be a very different environment for me this time (industry instead of private practice), so my industry-insider info (re. pay, packages, working conditions, local environment, etc.) is not that relevant. This time round, I'd also have to think about my daughter's education (12 yr old, bilingual English-French).

Edited July 1, 2016 by L00b

[Justin Smith]

As I watched, aghast, the referendum results coming in early Friday morning I suddenly remembered we hadn`t ordered our currency for our holiday to Crete. I had a bad feeling about which way the currency would go so got straight onto Sainsbury`s travel money. I bought 1000 Euros and it cost me £783. When I went to pick them up yesterday I asked how much the same would cost me today, answer : £864. That's £81 more.

I do wonder how many of those who voted to leave actually ever go abroad, and if so how often. Two reasons :

1 It`ll cost them more from now on

2 Travel broadens the mind........

[tzijlstra]

Tim, personal Brexit consequence here: I need your honest feedback here, as I just got headhunted by an Amsterdam-based global business last night, and the job is based there...and I'm finding myself not uhm-ing and ah-ing as much as usual

 

(i) realistically, what are the chances of a Nexit in the medium term? (don't fancy jumping from the pan into the fire )

 

(ii) ballpark differential in cost of living relative to Sheffield, roughly? (how much do I multiply my current £ to maintain living standards, also bearing taxation in mind? )

 

I'll not base my decision on that info of course, but it'd help to get an idea from the horse's mouth, as it were. I've done the relocation and capital city-based work a couple of times before, but it'd be a very different environment for me this time (industry instead of private practice), so my industry-insider info (re. pay, packages, working conditions, local environment, etc.) is not that relevant. This time round, I'd also have to think about my daughter's education (12 yr old, bilingual English-French).

 

Ooh la la! (I did say Amsterdam was actively targeting talent in Britain ; )

 

(i) Nexit - I don't think it will happen in the short term, this is an opinion held by professors in international law and politics across the Netherlands, the shock to the British economy will deter people of choosing a similar path. However, if Brexit results in access to the single market without free movement of people than it will intensify debate all over Europe. Really difficult to tell.

 

(ii) Amsterdam is the capital of the Netherlands, it is not Paris or London, but cost of living is higher than the rest of the country and I would say considerably higher than Sheffield. Use http://www.funda.nl/en/ for an idea of house-prices (it is our Rightmove, when you learn Dutch it will prove to be a lot better though). Also important to note - the Dutch are a nation of house-buyers, renting is generally the expensive option - mortgages are (for now) still subject to a tax-rebate, it pays to talk to a specialist about this.

 

There are several interesting commutable towns and cities nearby for cheaper living (but at the cost of a commute), Haarlem, Utrecht, Hilversum are all worth investigating as well. I am going to hazard a guess and say the company that approached you will be on the Zuidas, the newest, hippest office development with a lot of financial/legal/consultancy firms there. The station that serves this is Amsterdam Zuid, just like London/Paris, you probably will want to commute by train/tram/metro.

 

Also realise you would be moving to a nation with higher tax-pressure (not quite France) and, very easily overlooked, a legal requirement to buy your own health insurance. I am not sure what costs are at the moment, but for a family of four I'd expect at least 200€ a month for the most basic insurance, more for things like orthodontics etc. The job-offer you received - I'd expect them to include that health-insurance as part of the package and to give you a clear net-figure next to the headline figure.

 

Amsterdam and surrounding area is excellent for international schools, Google is your friend here, French language school Lycee Vincent van Gogh. As with everything in the Netherlands, schools charge annual fees, not sure whether they do in France, but unlike Britain it is not free for all. There is a standard fee for all pupils, but not sure how this works for international schools, give one a call to find out.

 

So, that is the quick breakdown, I would consider moving back to the Netherlands if I got the appropriate role, it does mean less money in general, but in exchange you get to live in a clean and efficient place where things are well sorted. So, tell them that you know someone...

 

---------- Post added 01-07-2016 at 09:26 ----------

 

As I watched, aghast, the referendum results coming in early Friday morning I suddenly remembered we hadn`t ordered our currency for our holiday to Crete. I had a bad feeling about which way the currency would go so got straight onto Sainsbury`s travel money. I bought 1000 Euros and it cost me £783. When I went to pick them up yesterday I asked how much the same would cost me today, answer : £864. That's £81 more.

I do wonder how many of those who voted to leave actually ever go abroad, and if so how often. Two reasons :

1 It`ll cost them more from now on

2 Travel broadens the mind........

 

Every Euro now buys you 5 pence more. Every Pound now buys you 10 eurocents less. That is going to hit prices hard, unless it rebounds, but today's volatility suggests markets are not thinking along the rebound line, they are pushing the pound further in it. A week in, it is beginning to look like the markets are low on faith when it comes to the UK economy.

 

This is costing the government serious money and the BoE is using its reserves, reserves run out at some point, meaning it needs to apply quantitative easing, making the Pound worth less again. An early prediction by an analyst, that the Pound would stabilise at 1,30 USD in the most positive and 1,20 in the most negative case is beginning to look pretty accurate. Which in turn means that there is still some way to go...

Edited July 1, 2016 by tzijlstra

[nancyM]

What do you think is going to be with property markets in the UK and the EU? I believe in the slight fall of prices in England and Spain. Spain will suffer a wane of demand for real estate from British buyers who were extremely active in this market. And in London the weak pound will play its part to attract new foreign investors (according to brokers' forecasts https://tranio.com/united-kingdom/news/real-estate-markets-could-wobble-as-uk-votes-to-leave-the-eu_5152/) The real estate market in Britain may even benefit from heightened foreign interest

[tzijlstra]

What do you think is going to be with property markets in the UK and the EU? I believe in the slight fall of prices in England and Spain. Spain will suffer a wane of demand for real estate from British buyers who were extremely active in this market. And in London the weak pound will play its part to attract new foreign investors (according to brokers' forecasts https://tranio.com/united-kingdom/news/real-estate-markets-could-wobble-as-uk-votes-to-leave-the-eu_5152/) The real estate market in Britain may even benefit from heightened foreign interest

 

It is hard to say nancy, it depends largely on how the economy develops, but London isn't the UK, house-prices in London are astronomical and London is attractive for foreign investment for many reasons, it is the areas where the economy gets hit hardest where the house-prices will fall. Then there is the factor of immigrants moving out, freeing up housing, again in the areas where the economy gets hit hardest, accelerating a down-turn in certain areas. For 'Us the North' I would think it won't be all that beneficial.

[Blackbeard]

Yes, but fortunately that vote wasn't binding in law. Our representatives went for RRS Sir David Attenborough instead, thereby not making us the laughing stock of the international oceanographic community.

 

Acording to the Guardian "The simple answer to the question as to whether the EU referendum is legally binding is “no”. In theory, in the event of a vote to leave the EU, David Cameron, who opposes Brexit, could decide to ignore the will of the people and put the question to MPs banking on a majority deciding to remain.

 

This is because parliament is sovereign and referendums are generally not binding in the UK."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-legally-binding-brexit-lisbon-cameron-sovereign-parliament

Btw. I know a little about polar research ships, I have used some of them.

[L00b]

Tim, thanks a lot for the preliminary input, very useful starting/base reference material.

I am going to hazard a guess and say the company that approached you will be on the Zuidas, the newest, hippest office development with a lot of financial/legal/consultancy firms there.

It's not financial/legal/consultancy, and closer to the hyper-center, on Osterdokstrat

 

Re. property market: I posted a link recently, in this or another of the EU-themed threads, about UOB (Singapore) pulling out all new mortgages for London. This is a bigger deal than most are likely to realise on here, who may not know how much SG$ has gone into London bricks in recent times. It's the proverbial first sneeze announcing the cold (if not flu), IMHO.

Edited July 1, 2016 by L00b

[tzijlstra]

Tim, thanks a lot for the preliminary input, very useful starting/base reference material.

It's not financial/legal/consultancy, and closer to the hyper-center, on Osterdokstrat

 

Re. property market: I posted a link recently, in this or another of the EU-themed threads, about UOB (Singapore) pulling out all new mortgages for London. This is a bigger deal than most are likely to realise on here, who may not know how much SG$ has gone into London bricks in recent times. It's the proverbial first sneeze announcing the cold (if not flu), IMHO.

 

You won't need much navigation to get there then, right round the corner from the central station

 

If you like modern architecture, to live in, there is a lot of interesting development along the waterfront in that area. Another place I didn't mention but is worth looking at is Almere, it is one of the 'new cities' and chockful of very nice and pretty affordable housing, plus it has great links to Amsterdam. A good friend of mine lives there and she loves it. But, as with everywhere, there are good and not so good areas.