The consequence thread (Brexit)

[mossdog]

........who will replace the UK now their will eventually be a huge black hole in the EU finances.......Turkey? and will Holland be next to throw in the towel?

I expect the "academic experts" on here to rubbish both those questions,however.........

[Chez2]

I think we probably will.

 

A lot of the environmental standards are EU driven. I posted on the other thread that these are partially trade driven, ensuring a level playing field. There is always the risk that in an unregulated market, one country would compromise on environmental standards in order to be more competitive. The EU directives prevented this.

 

We can take one of two directions, either a rush to the bottom or an attempt to maintain, or even improve, standards.

 

A lot will depend on the political climate, going forward.

 

1. Many Labour supporters have bought in to the Jeremy Corbyn philosophy, and so voted him in. I think he might (attempt to) buy in to the high quality, high standard point of view, from a basic socialist "best for everyone" attitude. If he does this, then this would probably protect the environment, but would we still be competitive in a global market?

 

The EU can take the cost of being environmentally good, partially because of its size and financial strength, but also because everyone within the internal market is in the same boat and nobody is able to undercut other members by using shoddy practices. I'm not convinced that we would be able to do this on our own and still be as competitve as we would have been within the EU.

 

Even if we were, in order to do this a Corbyn led Labour party must first get elected. To do this, it has to attract new voters from those who either don't vote or who currently vote for other parties. I cannot see anyone moving from either Lib Dems or Conservative to what they will see as a left leaning Corbyn led Labour party. I think it will depend on whether or not Corbyn can attract those who never voted because they didn't like the Blair style of Labour, but are now happier with a more "traditional" Labour party. Another issue is the failure of Labour in Scotland. In order to form a government, on its own, it would need to reverse the switch over to SNP. Without that (and/or if Scotland have another referendum and vote to leave the UK), along with constituacy boundary changes, Labour may not get back into power for many years. It's not much use having wonderful policies if you're not in power to implement them.

 

2. If we finish up with a Conservative government, then we will be driven by simple market forces, by which the cheapest (and least environmentally friendly) systems will win. There will no longer be the levelling forces of the single market. It took the combined efforts of the many nations of the EU to set environmental standards. No single country would do it on its own as it would be economic suicide in a global market.

 

Who knows what government we will finish up with. If it is option 1, then I think we risk not competing with the rest of the world. If it is option 2, then I think we risk finishing up with a compromised environment.

 

Similarly, the same sort of pressures will apply regarding workers rights, with similar options.

 

A lot of our waste goes abroad to EU countries to be recycled or recovered under trans frontier shipment of waste. A lot of regs make it easy to do this to EU countries but not outside the EU. I presume if we are outside the EU we won't be able to export waste for much longer under these regs. A lot of shipments have been put on hold recently already causing problems with waste disposal that used those routes. This cold make it much more expensive to dispose of waste for us in Britain. It would really badly affect the manufacturing sector by increasing costs.

[mossdog]

My trading screen says I can now buy 4.5% more for my money. I hope the same applies when I go for a drink later.

..........the only worry I have is what effect it will have on the price of champagne?

[Eater Sundae]

Have you included all the tax revenue we won't be getting from the companies who will no longer be here in your detailed calculations?

 

There are also all those companies which will no longer be able to win work within other single market countries, because they will not even be allowed to bid.

[truman]

........who will replace the UK now their will eventually be a huge black hole in the EU finances.......Turkey? and will Holland be next to throw in the towel?

I expect the "academic experts" on here to rubbish both those questions,however.........

 

I mentioned the hole in the funding bit a week or so ago...

[Quik]

........who will replace the UK now their will eventually be a huge black hole in the EU finances.......Turkey? and will Holland be next to throw in the towel?

I expect the "academic experts" on here to rubbish both those questions,however.........

 

Looking at the polling for the PVV a Dutch referendum is certainly on the cards and a dutch exit in the spring would surely kill off the EU

[L00b]

I still expect a "please don't go" offer to keep the UK and discourage other member state's citizens from wanting referendi (I just made that word up).

I'm certainly hoping that doesn't happen, and am failing to see how a "please don't go" offer to keep the UK would discourage other member state's citizens from wanting their referendum: what you'd end up is an auction of cumulative referenda, each asking for still more, and eventually unravelling the EU.

 

Which is exactly why I'm expecting the 27 and Brussels to play hardball. The 27, each to nab some of the UK's market share across the EU. Brussels, to show member state's citizens what is at stake with a membership referendum. Neither Remain nor Leave made that stake clear in the UK. You can be sure Brussels is going to.

[foxy lady]

I mentioned the hole in the funding bit a week or so ago...

 

The biggest problem now for the EU is there is now no one to counter German dominance. It remains to be seen how the non federalists react to an EU where they have absolutely no say in federalisation other than to vote themselves freedom. Nexit 2017/2018 might set off the rush.

[Eater Sundae]

So you want your kids to be a slave to a foreign country and being use as robots to ASSEMBLE cars. As most parts are not made here.

You think it is ok for our kid to make money for foreign company that dont paid much tax here?

 

Do you actually want Nissan, Honda and Toyota to close their factories here?

[truman]

I have one question... What would Mecky have said about this..?