The consequence thread (Brexit)

[L00b]

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Consequences all as expected so far:

 

GBP and FTSE getting two black eyes and a few teeth knocked out - check

 

Cameron getting out quick - check

 

Vote Leave politicians starting to distance themselves from practical consequences - check

 

I can see Cameron dropping the UK's Article 50 TFEU declaration at Brussels as his last act, so the 2 year period to end by October 2018.

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I'll rescind that in view of his actual statement:

He would attempt to "steady the ship" over the coming weeks and months, but that it would be for the new prime minister to carry out negotiations with the EU and invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which would give the UK two years to negotiate its withdrawal, he said

Half-right, earlier on though (about the timing of invoking art.50):

Regardless of whether Cameron still is PM or not -and I very much doubt he'd want to be the PM who does the deed and goes down in history for it (another point in support of my belief that he'd positively fly out of No.10 in July, Aug latest)- the markets won't let us.

 

Not by any stretch of the imagination.

 

In case of a Brexit vote, I'd give it -generously- 3 months max.

 

---------- Post added 24-06-2016 at 13:34 ----------

 

Maybe. And Jean-Claude Juncker (funny how we all now know the name of at least one of the European Commissioners) has told us to bugger off this morning. But ...

 

I think he played "hardball" earlier this week when he said no reforms, and this morning is his final "hardball" card. He had to say no reforms to discourage reformers (like me) voting Brexit in the hope of reform, he has to say bugger off to make it seem like he means it to discourage other member states. And ...

 

There has to be, surely, some sort of self realisation and logic in the heads of the European Commissioners. Citizens of the EU are not unhappy with the EU because it is a single market, but because some of their dictates are unpopular. By "please don't go" I don't mean in the way you might plead with a leaving girlfriend, I mean in a way that the EU can show itself to be supported by EU citizens. Like we'll allow sovereign control of borders.

 

I might be wrong, but if I am I still prefer a Brexit future with proper accountable democracy than one within an unaccountable anti-democratic EU.

Neither the EU nor the governments of the remaining 27 states are blind to ideology, particularly of the sort fanned by populo-nationalist winds. I expect them to be far more pragmatic, just like the Greeks, even of the hard left persuasion, proved themselves to be at referendum ballot boxes, time and again.

 

Then again, lambda citizens in most of the other EU states are far better informed than UK lambda citizens about the functioning of the EU institutions and the benefits of EU membership, and have not been conditioned by decades of Tory infighting-led 'EU bad, UK good' messages, so this may explain that.

Edited June 24, 2016 by L00b

[kaytie]

One thing pretty much overlooked is the fact that nearly half the population are really seriously p####d off because this was the last thing they wanted. Why is it regarded as close? 48% of disgruntled people is a lot of disgruntled people.!

[Beauchiefs]

Originally Posted by Beauchiefs View Post

 

Hardly Armageddon that was threatened by remain campaign

 

Biggest crash since 1987...

 

Perhaps the small number 4.7 is misleading you into thinking this isn't significant.

 

Pound to Euro is higher now than May this year

Footsie is 540 points up on its lowest over last 12 months

Pound to dollar is around equivalent to its 12 month low.

Hardly the disaster forecast

[tzijlstra]

Maybe. And Jean-Claude Juncker (funny how we all now know the name of at least one of the European Commissioners) has told us to bugger off this morning. But ...

 

I think he played "hardball" earlier this week when he said no reforms, and this morning is his final "hardball" card. He had to say no reforms to discourage reformers (like me) voting Brexit in the hope of reform, he has to say bugger off to make it seem like he means it to discourage other member states. And ...

 

First off - Juncker is not someone I respect, but I respect the media who have misquoted him even less. He said that the deal negotiated by Cameron was it, not that there would be no reforms as a collective, just that the UK couldn't turn around and say - look we nearly lost the Brexit vote, now we need you to concede more. There is a distinct difference.

 

Having said that - the EU does have to look at itself and is already beginning that process, so when you say (It isn't down to the commissioners by the way, it is the EU as a whole, council, parliament and commission):

 

There has to be, surely, some sort of self realisation and logic in the heads of the European Commissioners. Citizens of the EU are not unhappy with the EU because it is a single market, but because some of their dictates are unpopular. By "please don't go" I don't mean in the way you might plead with a leaving girlfriend, I mean in a way that the EU can show itself to be supported by EU citizens. Like we'll allow sovereign control of borders.

 

I might be wrong, but if I am I still prefer a Brexit future with proper accountable democracy than one within an unaccountable anti-democratic EU.

 

You are right, the EU needs to take a good long look at its democratic accountability, and you can rest assured that this will happen.

[mossdog]

The biggest problem now for the EU is there is now no one to counter German dominance. It remains to be seen how the non federalists react to an EU where they have absolutely no say in federalisation other than to vote themselves freedom. Nexit 2017/2018 might set off the rush.

.........apart from the question of immigration, German dominance will have figured high on the list of things that leavers are concerned about!

[alchresearch]

Will Euro Car Parts now change their name?

[Vague_Boy]

So let's keep track of the consequences in this thread.

One that seems highly probable (although by no means certain) is a second Scottish independence referendum. Nicola Sturgeon has been saying as much this morning [LINK]

 

After the unpleasant events surrounding the Brexit vote, I wouldn't like to bet against the Scots choosing to leave our Union this time around. And who could blame them?

[Guest]

Will Euro Car Parts now change their name?

 

No because they still of course supply parts for European made cars.

[truman]

One that seems highly probable (although by no means certain) is a second Scottish independence referendum. Nicola Sturgeon has been saying as much this morning [LINK]

 

After the unpleasant events surrounding the Brexit vote, I wouldn't like to bet against the Scots choosing to leave our Union this time around. And who could blame them?

 

I said that earlier this week but my post was poo poo'd

 

http://time.com/4372935/nicola-sturgeon-snp-eu-referendum-scotland/

 

"An SNP spokesman also confirmed that a second independence referendum would be held “in the circumstances that Scotland is taken out of the E.U. against our will. “"

[Guest]

If Scottish people feel that they can afford a hospital system and free university etc etc, purely from their own coffers, go for it jocks.