samssong Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The only pre-referendum promise that has actually been kept is the markets' promise that they would crucify us if we voted to leave. I can't believe that some people are still in denial about this. Why, what disaster has happened . My £26 in the bank has lost 30 pence in value and my premium bonds (£70) are still just has useless as a week last Thursday,. So now"t to get excited about there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Why, what disaster has happened . My £26 in the bank has lost 30 pence in value and my premium bonds (£70) are still just has useless as a week last Thursday,. So now"t to get excited about there. Think the point is that economic conditions are starting to work against us: - weak pound means more expensive imports and that is going to increase food and fuel prices. Manufacturers that are dependent on imports of raw materials will suffer. Some exporters may be OK though so we'll have to see how that balances out. - More funds injected by the BofE means more debt in the system. That will feed into inflation later. - Inflation will rise anyway due to imports - AAA rating lost and outlook rated negative - Even lower interest rates on the cards. On the face of it that sounds good but it is a sign of a critically ill economy when interest rates hover near zero for years - FTSE 250 getting wrecked, losing almost 12% of value. That is a key indicator of the health of British companies - Many companies freezing recruitment and putting investment on hold - Reduced inward investment looking highly likely - Targets for eliminating deficit abandoned meaning national debt will continue rising through 2020 - Negative indicators for services industries - referendum coincided with the start of a manufacturing recession - Strong indicators of volatility in the property market I can tell you are a naturally optimistic person but don't be blinkered. There's a bigger picture and it isn't great. Hopefully though we'll find that many of the issues are down to short-term shock after the referendum result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 Not sure exactly what that means? The youth unemployment ratio has been high across most of the EU nations and the only factor that has reduced that in individual countries is the free movement of people to move and work in other countries, hence the EU wanting to keep that up. If the UK is out of that loop then the EU countries will experience a higher level and in the UK it should be lower as more jobs will become available. Let me explain with the handiwork of Michael_W who thought he was being helpful and shot his and your argument in the foot quite conveniently: Shhhhhh, you will spoil the doom and gloom thread http://www.statista.com/statistics/266228/youth-unemployment-rate-in-eu-countries/ Gosh, youth-unemployment in Britain is low, as it is in other higher immigration economies? One wonders how that could be, surely immigrants take all our jobs! (Or immigrants move to dynamic economies that create jobs, adding to the mix and in turn creating more jobs). But that would be heresy Tim! How could you say such a stupid thing, if that is the case, why did Cameron say he wanted to cut migration to 100K and consequently did nothing about it? (Quad erat demonstrandum. You may remove the blindfold now.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berberis Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 (edited) All fair points, though I was thinking more of the fact that a number of commercial property funds have told their investors that they can't take any of their money out till further notice. Predicted by the FT to spread to other asset classes. This is a serious development. Its very worrying and some people seem intent on ignoring the problems. The BOE's stimulus injection is unprecedented in modern history. No such initiative has been put into effect BEFORE the problems hit. This means Mark Carney sees something that we can't, yet, but something big is coming and it could make the 2008 financial crisis look like a blip. Edited July 7, 2016 by Berberis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apelike Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 Let me explain with the handiwork of Michael_W who thought he was being helpful and shot his and your argument in the foot quite conveniently: Actually he didn't as his post is based on the total youth unemployment rate. Gosh, youth-unemployment in Britain is low, as it is in other higher immigration economies? One wonders how that could be, surely immigrants take all our jobs! (Or immigrants move to dynamic economies that create jobs, adding to the mix and in turn creating more jobs). But that would be heresy Tim! How could you say such a stupid thing, if that is the case, why did Cameron say he wanted to cut migration to 100K and consequently did nothing about it? (Quad erat demonstrandum. You may remove the blindfold now.) Actually it is you who has not understood and was too quick to take it in. (ut probatum est) My post was based on the Youth unemployment ratio and not based just on the total youth unemployment rate stats, that why I stated ratio. You see Michael_W post is the total youth unemployment rate between the age of 15-25 based on those capable of work. The ratio stats are base on the actual numbers of 15-25 year old that are actually seeking work. I have put it in bold so you can see the difference as the blindfold may be hampering your vision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted July 7, 2016 Author Share Posted July 7, 2016 Actually he didn't as his post is based on the total youth unemployment rate. Actually it is you who has not understood and was too quick to take it in. (ut probatum est) My post was based on the Youth unemployment ratio and not based just on the total youth unemployment rate stats, that why I stated ratio. You see Michael_W post is the total youth unemployment rate between the age of 15-25 based on those capable of work. The ratio stats are base on the actual numbers of 15-25 year old that are actually seeking work. I have put it in bold so you can see the difference as the blindfold may be hampering your vision. And what makes you think the same doesn't apply to the other countries? And how is this relevant to my point? As far as I am concerned there is low unemployment in this country, despite the immigration, are you arguing differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackbeard Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 (edited) The vultures are circling. "Milan's new mayor Giuseppe Sala will fly into London on Wednesday, stepping up a battle between European cities competing to wrest two prestigious European Union agencies from London in the wake of Britain's vote to leave the bloc. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) together employ more than 1,000 skilled staff from across the EU. Both are expected to relocate as a result of the so-called Brexit decision. The agencies are prized not only for jobs but also for their potential to act as hubs for finance and pharmaceuticals, two of Europe's most important industries. That has set off a battle from Madrid to Stockholm to Warsaw as EU members seek to grab one or other organization, in the knowledge that banks and drugmakers will want to maintain close ties with key regulators." Sala will meet the heads of the EBA and EMA during his one-day trip, which was arranged by the Italian ambassador in London, the mayor's office said. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-agencies-idUSKCN0ZL1Q0 "The French government will outline incentives on Wednesday to make Paris a more attractive financial center, officials said, as the French capital seeks to win finance jobs from London for a post-Brexit era. France's financial sector has often complained of government ambivalence towards the industry, which is subject to high taxes and sometimes hostile remarks from politicians. Prime Minister Manuel Valls has made a snap decision to appear at the annual conference of the French financial industry's lobby, Paris Europlace, later on Wednesday -- a rare visit to the event by a high-ranking member of the government." http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-france-idUSKCN0ZM0Y4 Edited July 7, 2016 by Blackbeard and there is more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L00b Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 The vultures are circling."Vultures"? A bit strong, I think. "Business people seeking to exploit business opportunities handed to them on a plate", more like. You can't reasonably expect the EU to keep any of its agencies and branch offices in the UK after Brexit, surely? Moreover, and in any case, the jobs, consumption, tax income <etc.> that go with those are part and parcel of the Leavers' acceptable losses, remember? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 "Vultures"? A bit strong, I think. "Business people seeking to exploit business opportunities handed to them on a plate", more like. You can't reasonably expect the EU to keep any of its agencies and branch offices in the UK after Brexit, surely? Moreover, and in any case, the jobs, consumption, tax income <etc.> that go with those are part and parcel of the Leavers' acceptable losses, remember? At a governmental level things certain processes will be starting too. There are some pretty good ready-made solutions to high unemployment in some countries and that is lift and shift of manufacturing and services from the UK into the EU. It is entirely legal for governments to offer incentives to companies to relocate. Think what a Nissan plant could do for a poor region of Spain or Greece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackbeard Posted July 7, 2016 Share Posted July 7, 2016 At a governmental level things certain processes will be starting too. There are some pretty good ready-made solutions to high unemployment in some countries and that is lift and shift of manufacturing and services from the UK into the EU. It is entirely legal for governments to offer incentives to companies to relocate. Think what a Nissan plant could do for a poor region of Spain or Greece. The people of Sunderland would not worry about losing Nissan, they voted out by a large margin, I expect management in Japan made a note of that. "Sunderland has voted to leave the EU by a larger margin than expected, with 61 per cent voting to leave and 39 per cent voting to remain in the European Union." http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/eu-referendum-sunderland-result-vote-brexit-leave-live-latest-remain-a7098776.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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