The consequence thread (Brexit)

[Longcol]

"Vultures"?

 

A bit strong, I think. "Business people seeking to exploit business opportunities handed to them on a plate", more like.

 

You can't reasonably expect the EU to keep any of its agencies and branch offices in the UK after Brexit, surely?

 

Moreover, and in any case, the jobs, consumption, tax income <etc.> that go with those are part and parcel of the Leavers' acceptable losses, remember?

 

To misquote an advertising slogan;

 

"Brokesprung Brit Brexit".

[altus]

The people of Sunderland would not worry about losing Nissan, they voted out by a large margin, I expect management in Japan made a note of that.

That begs a question. If a company has to downsize because of brexit, should they get rid of employees who caused the problem by voting leave first?

[tzijlstra]

The vultures are circling.

"Milan's new mayor Giuseppe Sala will fly into London on Wednesday, stepping up a battle between European cities competing to wrest two prestigious European Union agencies from London in the wake of Britain's vote to leave the bloc.

 

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) together employ more than 1,000 skilled staff from across the EU. Both are expected to relocate as a result of the so-called Brexit decision.

 

The agencies are prized not only for jobs but also for their potential to act as hubs for finance and pharmaceuticals, two of Europe's most important industries.

 

That has set off a battle from Madrid to Stockholm to Warsaw as EU members seek to grab one or other organization, in the knowledge that banks and drugmakers will want to maintain close ties with key regulators."

 

Sala will meet the heads of the EBA and EMA during his one-day trip, which was arranged by the Italian ambassador in London, the mayor's office said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-agencies-idUSKCN0ZL1Q0

 

"The French government will outline incentives on Wednesday to make Paris a more attractive financial center, officials said, as the French capital seeks to win finance jobs from London for a post-Brexit era.

 

France's financial sector has often complained of government ambivalence towards the industry, which is subject to high taxes and sometimes hostile remarks from politicians.

 

Prime Minister Manuel Valls has made a snap decision to appear at the annual conference of the French financial industry's lobby, Paris Europlace, later on Wednesday -- a rare visit to the event by a high-ranking member of the government."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-france-idUSKCN0ZM0Y4

 

They started circling pre-Brexit. Amsterdam has been increasing contacts with the lobbyists of UK finance in Brussels for a while now and the Dutch Prime-Minister has suggested that the 20% bonus cap (as opposed to the 100% (EU) or none (UK)) could be subject to flexibility outside of the headline figure.

 

Equally, the Luxemburg government has had some handy influence on UK-based hedgefunds and holding companies.

 

Hardly surprising, the welfare of the City will come to an abrupt hold if passporting stops. It is the key-bargaining chip for the EU, London contributes over 30% of taxes to a government with a 4,4% deficit, a big part of that 30% comes directly from LSE-related revenue. The maths really aren't complicated, sounds from the Leave-camp post referendum are clear enough, we want an end to free movement of people. This is the UK politicians (more precisely Tories/Cameron) cornering themselves into an absolutely amateurish negotiating position yet again.

 

But it is fine, in 2020 (4 years from now...) the angry mob can vote them out for Labour. Huzzah sovereignty! Huzzah Control!

[Magilla]

So when's the NHS getting its £350million a week, Nige?

 

http://www.health.org.uk/publication/nhs-finances-outside-eu

 

"The NHS budget could be £2.8bn lower than currently planned in 2019/20, if the government aims to balance the books overall. In the longer term, the NHS funding shortfall could be at least £19bn by 2030/31– equivalent to £365m a week – assuming the UK is able to join the European Economic Area. If this is not the case, the shortfall will potentially be as high as £28bn – which is £540m a week."

[foxy lady]

At a governmental level things certain processes will be starting too. There are some pretty good ready-made solutions to high unemployment in some countries and that is lift and shift of manufacturing and services from the UK into the EU. It is entirely legal for governments to offer incentives to companies to relocate. Think what a Nissan plant could do for a poor region of Spain or Greece.

 

Well that's an interesting thought. Just what would make relocation of Nissan to Greece more attractive to Nissan post Brexit vote than it was before the vote took place?

[Gamston]

Well that's an interesting thought. Just what would make relocation of Nissan to Greece more attractive to Nissan post Brexit vote than it was before the vote took place?

 

Perhaps, Greece is an ideal location for a factory to build their new top secret model called the Nissan kamikaze.

[mafya]

"Ignore the prophets of doom, brexit will be good for Britain" according to this article= https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

[I1L2T3]

Well that's an interesting thought. Just what would make relocation of Nissan to Greece more attractive to Nissan post Brexit vote than it was before the vote took place?

 

Government incentives, plus the fact that we wouldn't be in the EU anymore and if were not in the single market then the tariff is 10% on cars.

 

Doesn't have to be Greece, pick any one of the 27

 

Dismiss it all you want but governments will be looking to take as much away from us as they can, and those companies that located in the UK because of EU access could be looking to move too. It will be for mutual benefit.

[apelike]

And what makes you think the same doesn't apply to the other countries? And how is this relevant to my point? As far as I am concerned there is low unemployment in this country, despite the immigration, are you arguing differently?

 

Yes as youth unemployment is still high.

 

There are 2 type of unemployment statistics. One is the total amount of youth aged 15-24 not in work and then there is the total amount of people of the same age seeking employment. Most use the working age one which is not very representative of the situation. For instance, the chart Michael_W linked to shows Croatia with a 40.3% youth unemployment rate which at first seems high but in fact the youth unemployment ratio is around 12.7% and just a little bit higher than the UK.

 

So, when talking about the youth unemployment ratio in the UK it is higher than in most EU countries but Greece, Spain, Croatia and Portugal have a much higher ratio.

[I1L2T3]

"Ignore the prophets of doom, brexit will be good for Britain" according to this article= https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/06/brexit-britain-property-bubble

 

He's deeply misguided and it's a very London-centric view. The economic mayhem is all around us. Entirely as predicted.

 

People want jobs, homes and security. Economic chaos threatens that. People like Jenkins are immune from that and he is never going to comprehend the suffering this could cause.

 

---------- Post added 07-07-2016 at 20:56 ----------

 

Yes as youth unemployment is still high.

 

There are 2 type of unemployment statistics. One is the total amount of youth aged 15-24 not in work and then there is the total amount of people of the same age seeking employment. Most use the working age one which is not very representative of the situation. For instance, the chart Michael_W linked to shows Croatia with a 40.3% youth unemployment rate which at first seems high but in fact the youth unemployment ratio is around 12.7% and just a little bit higher than the UK.

 

So, when talking about the youth unemployment ratio in the UK it is higher than in most EU countries but Greece, Spain, Croatia and Portugal have a much higher ratio.

 

So the way to fix this is to kill economic growth, drive jobs offshore and then reduce opportunities for economic migration?

 

This is insanity.