I1L2T3 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 We are in unchartered waters. I think we will exit, but it is by no means certain. And the route to geting there is certainly not fixed. I think we will exit too but I think we will end up with the Norway model, i.e. in the EEA. It would not be greatly different to now. It's not too much of a step away and not too much of a leap to go back in. ---------- Post added 10-07-2016 at 11:58 ---------- The EU negotiated a 98% tariff free trade agreement with Canada which will come into effect in the future. It should be far easier for us a country which has had good trade relations for over 40 years to negotiate a better deal than what is on the table for Canada. Why would it be much easier? I'm not right keen on people staking our future on these kind of assumptions. It could be extremely tough to get what we want. Trade is not a game. Countries just don't roll over and let you shaft them. ---------- Post added 10-07-2016 at 12:03 ---------- Could you point me to where the government is saying this please? It's the government Brexit unit, mentioned in here http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jul/05/brexit-can-go-ahead-without-parliament-vote-article-50-government-lawyers-say Letwin claimed that although government lawyers had said the triggering of article 50 was a matter for the royal prerogative and not parliament, MPs would have a role in the process of Brexit since it would require the repeal of the European Communities Act 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamston Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Why would it be much easier? I'm not right keen on people staking our future on these kind of assumptions. It could be extremely tough to get what we want. Trade is not a game. Countries just don't roll over and let you shaft them. If you look for problems, then you will find problems. It should be easier because we already have good trade relations and are not starting from scratch. Also the EU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to them , so it is more in their interest than ours to have tariff free trading. Any shafting which has been done is by the EU on the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackbeard Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 If you look for problems, then you will find problems. It should be easier because we already have good trade relations and are not starting from scratch. Also the EU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to them , so it is more in their interest than ours to have tariff free trading. Any shafting which has been done is by the EU on the UK. Tell me how we got shafted? The only person doing the shafting was Kilroy Silk an ex leader of UKIP. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shafted BTW I have not come across many amicable divorces. I have a plan, why not employ all the car and double glassing salesmen to cover for our shortage of negotiators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyofborg Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 If you look for problems, then you will find problems. It should be easier because we already have good trade relations and are not starting from scratch. Also the EU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to them , so it is more in their interest than ours to have tariff free trading. Any shafting which has been done is by the EU on the UK. Eu exports to the UK are something like 10% of the total eu exports whereas trade the other way is around 50% of ours. We have far more to lose than the eu does. Most of the things we export to the eu are services which are fairly easy to move and probably the people with them. So we not only lose the business but also the people who can go out in the world to find replacements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 (edited) If you look for problems, then you will find problems. It should be easier because we already have good trade relations and are not starting from scratch. Also the EU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to them , so it is more in their interest than ours to have tariff free trading. Any shafting which has been done is by the EU on the UK. People keep stating that the EU has more to lose. It simply isn't true. If you look at the % of trade that individual EU countries do with us it's lower than you would think and in total less than 4% of EU GDP. We are not the main trade partner with any EU country. We are the second main trading partner with only three individual countries: Ireland, Cyprus and Poland. We are third main trading partner with only a handful of individual EU countries: Denmark, Germany, Holland and Sweden. As others have stated we would continue to trade and agreements would be made but the cards are not massively stacked in our favour. In fact as the UKs attractiveness as a base for operations in thd EU declines we would expect the importance of trade with the EU to decline. Even more so as our economy contracts and our spending power reduces and a weak pound. I would suggest Brexiters invest some time in getting up to speed with the economics of this. The sound bites based on myths Farage spent 23 years inventing in his head aren't going to cut it any more. Yes after a time we might recover and realign to trade with the rest of the world (and indeed this seems to be the hope of many Brexiters) but make no mistake we are in for a minimum decade-long economic shock, which has actually already started. ---------- Post added 10-07-2016 at 13:11 ---------- Eu exports to the UK are something like 10% of the total eu exports whereas trade the other way is around 50% of ours. We have far more to lose than the eu does. Most of the things we export to the eu are services which are fairly easy to move and probably the people with them. So we not only lose the business but also the people who can go out in the world to find replacements. And we would lose much of the tax revenue based on those services. 30% of our tax revenue comes from London and the Irish, French and Germans are already making moves to take those services businesses away from us. In my work role I've already been to two meetings in London since the resultwhere the company is making plans to relocate some operations, probably to Dublin maybe France, and I expect that to now happen whether we Brexit or not. The uncertainty has become locked in. The company can't wait while our politicians fanny about. Edited July 10, 2016 by I1L2T3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chalga Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 (edited) Jesus wept... Brexit gets poll boost after huge EU immigration figures drive public fears over number of arrivals to UK THE Remain campaign’s lead in the referendum has been slashed on the back of record-breaking EU immigration figures. With just three weeks to go until polling day Brexiteers have been given a huge boost by the latest ORB survey, which puts them on 46% to Remain’s 51%. Having been cruising with a 13-point cushion in last week’s poll, the In camp have lost ground while the Out vote has crept up. Analysis by Sir Lynton Crosby in the Telegraph, who commissioned the poll, pointed to increased discipline by the pro-Brexit politicians on immigration as a contributing factor. Last Thursday official statistics showed the number of people coming to Britain from inside the EU matched the all-time high of 184,000. http://thisisengland.org.uk/brexit-gets-poll-boost-after-huge-eu-immigration-figures-drive-public-fears-over-number-of-arrivals-to-uk/ Edited July 10, 2016 by chalga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 As the majority of MPs are in parties which support membership of the EU, and entered parliament on that basis at the last election, then it would seem appropriate if those MPs chose to vote to remain, as they already have a mandate. It now emerges that having developed a common bond during the referendum campaign there are moves to create a new centrist pro-EU party that would include MPs from both Labour and Conservatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Choosing to' remain' meant having to accept anyone and everyone who wished to come here from the EU. How would that help to deal with any future problems associated with immigration? Are we going to leave the EU and reduce EU immigration, but still leave immigration from outside of the EU at 184,000? It may well be the very same person leading the country that failed to reduce immigration, when they promised to do so. I hope we do reduce immigration to around 100,000; but my fear would be that we become a racist country, and austerity is still being applied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 The EU negotiated a 98% tariff free trade agreement with Canada which will come into effect in the future. It should be far easier for us a country which has had good trade relations for over 40 years to negotiate a better deal than what is on the table for Canada. It only took about 10 years to negotiate...….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamston Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 It only took about 10 years to negotiate...….. Australia manage to complete a free trade agreement with America in less than two years. The EU will have two years to negotiate with the UK after article 50 is triggered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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