andyofborg Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Australia manage to complete a free trade agreement with America in less than two years. The EU will have two years to negotiate with the UK after article 50 is triggered. We've a far more complex relationship to unwind and rebuild than Australia and America had or have now. No one with any sense thinks we can complete this in two years which is why some want a period of informal negotiation before we trigger article 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Australia manage to complete a free trade agreement with America in less than two years. The EU will have two years to negotiate with the UK after article 50 is triggered. According to Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade figures the imbalance in trade between the U.S. and Australia increased substantially during 2007. The United States became Australia's largest import source, with goods and services imported to a value of over A$31 billion. Australia's exports to the U.S., however, amounted to only $15.8 billion AU. It remains unclear what, if any, real benefits the agreement has produced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eater Sundae Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 (edited) It now emerges that having developed a common bond during the referendum campaign there are moves to create a new centrist pro-EU party that would include MPs from both Labour and Conservatives. The majority of MPs will feel tied to their party, even if it leads to a brexit that they do not want. It is a very big step to leave the support and infrastructure of the party that sponsored you to become an MP. Also, the only recent history of something similar (the SDP) ultimately didn't lead to any real change. Although I'd quite the idea, I can't see it happening. Edit. Also, it's not clear how this would affect voting at the next election. The majority of existing constituencies are unlikely to change allegiance. So, for example, if a new Pro EU party were to emerge, and a labour MP chose to defect, then the labour party would choose a new labour candidate, probably with the same views. The vote would then be split, maybe actually letting in a pro brexit alternative. The same could happen at safe conservative seats also. The only hope for an emerging pro EU party is if that were the only issue, but I don't think the EU is the only issue. If it were, then why couldn't UKIP (the single pro brexit party) get many more votes in the last general election, as more than half of the voters want brexit. Edited July 10, 2016 by Eater Sundae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyofborg Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 According to Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade figures the imbalance in trade between the U.S. and Australia increased substantially during 2007. The United States became Australia's largest import source, with goods and services imported to a value of over A$31 billion. Australia's exports to the U.S., however, amounted to only $15.8 billion AU. It remains unclear what, if any, real benefits the agreement has produced. There doesn't seem to be a great deal of evidence that these deals in general produce much in the way of benefit to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamston Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 We've a far more complex relationship to unwind and rebuild than Australia and America had or have now. No one with any sense thinks we can complete this in two years which is why some want a period of informal negotiation before we trigger article 50 The deal will be completed within two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyofborg Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 The deal will be completed within two years. I admire your confidence in the face if the growing body of suggestion that it will take longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I1L2T3 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Are we going to leave the EU and reduce EU immigration, but still leave immigration from outside of the EU at 184,000? It may well be the very same person leading the country that failed to reduce immigration, when they promised to do so. I hope we do reduce immigration to around 100,000; but my fear would be that we become a racist country, and austerity is still being applied. Farage has stated that he expects non-EU immigration to increase ---------- Post added 10-07-2016 at 14:44 ---------- Australia manage to complete a free trade agreement with America in less than two years. The EU will have two years to negotiate with the UK after article 50 is triggered. The deal is just the first part. Transition is not instant. For example the S Korea - China FTA has a transition period of 20 years. At the end of that period IIRC they will have a FTA for 92% of goods and services, but only after 20 years ---------- Post added 10-07-2016 at 14:53 ---------- The deal will be completed within two years. The only way that could happen is an across the board fall back to WTO rules, and then a commitment to rebuild trade agreements. For a long time we would have no FTA with any country, be subject to a 3% common tariff and much higher tariffs on a whole range of goods and services. A dogged commitment to removing free movement corners us in that position. I can't believe anybody really wants that. This is why remainers repeatedly demanded details of likely trade agreements post-referendum. We warned you. It was clear that the Brexiters' promises were incompatible and unworkable leaving us with only the nuclear option of WTO. ---------- Post added 10-07-2016 at 14:56 ---------- The majority of MPs will feel tied to their party, even if it leads to a brexit that they do not want. It is a very big step to leave the support and infrastructure of the party that sponsored you to become an MP. Also, the only recent history of something similar (the SDP) ultimately didn't lead to any real change. Although I'd quite the idea, I can't see it happening. Edit. Also, it's not clear how this would affect voting at the next election. The majority of existing constituencies are unlikely to change allegiance. So, for example, if a new Pro EU party were to emerge, and a labour MP chose to defect, then the labour party would choose a new labour candidate, probably with the same views. The vote would then be split, maybe actually letting in a pro brexit alternative. The same could happen at safe conservative seats also. The only hope for an emerging pro EU party is if that were the only issue, but I don't think the EU is the only issue. If it were, then why couldn't UKIP (the single pro brexit party) get many more votes in the last general election, as more than half of the voters want brexit. I think you're underestimating the likelihood of this if Leadsom is elected. She will be another Corbyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Penistone999 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 As the majority of MPs are in parties which support membership of the EU, and entered parliament on that basis at the last election, then it would seem appropriate if those MPs chose to vote to remain, as they already have a mandate. Depends if they still want to have a job after the next general election. The country has voted to leave the EU , and only MP`s with a political death wish would try and go against the wishes of the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radan Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 (edited) Depends if they still want to have a job after the next general election. The country has voted to leave the EU , and only MP`s with a political death wish would try and go against the wishes of the people. Not necessarily, what with FPTP and all. I think that's mere wishful thinking on your part 59 seats in Scotland alone. All those London MPs, NI, Bristol, Cardiff, Manchester, Leeds, Oxford, Cambridge, Liverpool, Norwich, Harrogate etc etc. I'd imagine a coalition government. No coalition government would trigger article 50. Edited July 10, 2016 by Radan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
truman Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 Australia manage to complete a free trade agreement with America in less than two years. The EU will have two years to negotiate with the UK after article 50 is triggered. Not sure how America and Australia negotiations have a bearing on us and the EU... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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