The consequence thread (Brexit)

[apelike]

In your case, it is warranted.

 

I suggest you add me to your ignore list if you do not like my approach.

 

Why should I? Just because you think that manners are big houses does not bother me. As Mort often says "If you cant remain civil then please refrain from posting."

Edited July 12, 2016 by apelike

[Radan]

Why should I? Just because you think that manners are big houses does not bother me. As Mort often says "If you cant remain civil then please refrain from posting."

 

I don't think manners are big house. I don't even know what that means.

 

I googled it. No result.

 

Please clarify.

 

Edit. Got you. Manors are big house. Very amusing. Homonyms don't work when you are reading online. Just a tip.

Edited July 12, 2016 by Radan

[tzijlstra]

Well this is what I thought.

There is majority consent for the continuous integration process in much of the mainland unlike in the UK.

Now that we're getting out of the way, they can get on with it without us. Good luck to them.

No real question of deterring other members from following the Uk as that's not what their peoples want.

 

I really don't see why the UK and the mainland have to have any meaningful falling out over this.

 

 

The EU does not want to lose the UK as a trading partner and vice versa. But the UK needs to find a voice and direction quick and start the process soon. In the end neither governments want a full severance of the UK from the single market. But there needs to be a fair and even-handed outcome at the end, but, negotiations need to start soon. The longer article 50 is not invoked, the more it will make live difficult around the negotiating table.

 

May is in a lose/lose situation for the most part, like a plaster, she needs to make it quick so the government can show tangible results by 2020. Leaving it all until 2017 (as May has suggested) leads to an exit in 2019, probably less than a year before the elections.

 

I think we will see a statement on the shape of freedom of movement and goods for the UK by the end of the year.

[Magilla]

You and I both know the UK cannot possibly get "what we already had" (i.e. the same trading T&Cs as under full EU membership), under any stretches of meaning.

 

Indeed. It's going to be interesting to watch those TV crews going to Wales, Cornwall & Hartlepool again when the deal is struck to see what the brexiters make of it.

[Radan]

The EU does not want to lose the UK as a trading partner and vice versa. But the UK needs to find a voice and direction quick and start the process soon. In the end neither governments want a full severance of the UK from the single market. But there needs to be a fair and even-handed outcome at the end, but, negotiations need to start soon. The longer article 50 is not invoked, the more it will make live difficult around the negotiating table.

 

May is in a lose/lose situation for the most part, like a plaster, she needs to make it quick so the government can show tangible results by 2020. Leaving it all until 2017 (as May has suggested) leads to an exit in 2019, probably less than a year before the elections.

 

I think we will see a statement on the shape of freedom of movement and goods for the UK by the end of the year.

 

I'm slightly concerned with the idea of getting our position clear before Article 50 is triggered. Haven't the EU said there will be no negotiations until it is triggered?

 

It's all well and good for the Government to come up with its plan of attack and hit the button. But the EU could look at us and say, 'errrrr, no.'

 

Merkel has reiterated we cannot just pick and chose the EU bits we like.

[truman]

The rest seem to be mouthing off and predicting Armagedon. I've not seen much of it myself.

 

 

We haven't left yet....

[Gamston]

The EU does not want to lose the UK as a trading partner and vice versa. But the UK needs to find a voice and direction quick and start the process soon. In the end neither governments want a full severance of the UK from the single market. But there needs to be a fair and even-handed outcome at the end, but, negotiations need to start soon. The longer article 50 is not invoked, the more it will make live difficult around the negotiating table.

 

May is in a lose/lose situation for the most part, like a plaster, she needs to make it quick so the government can show tangible results by 2020. Leaving it all until 2017 (as May has suggested) leads to an exit in 2019, probably less than a year before the elections.

 

I think we will see a statement on the shape of freedom of movement and goods for the UK by the end of the year.

We are 9 weeks sooner to starting negotiations, than we were yesterday morning. Therefore progress is ahead of schedule.

[L00b]

May is in a lose/lose situation for the most part.

She's looking like a sacrificial lamb to me already, what with the Brexiters-heavy Treasury Select Committee now going after Carney.

 

The UK's plebicide is taking a clearer shape than ever.

[tzijlstra]

I'm slightly concerned with the idea of getting our position clear before Article 50 is triggered. Haven't the EU said there will be no negotiations until it is triggered?

 

It's all well and good for the Government to come up with its plan of attack and hit the button. But the EU could look at us and say, 'errrrr, no.'

 

Merkel has reiterated we cannot just pick and chose the EU bits we like.

 

Merkel (and other HoS in the EU) are doing what they have to do, set the table for the negotiation. That is what experienced politicians do, although of course, the most experienced do it behind the scenes and not in the press, that is left to those in trouble (When are the French elections l00b?).

 

The UK doesn't need to pander to Merkel, or Hollande, it needs to win the majority vote in the Parliament and the Council. That means that support from the East and Mediterranean is necessary to get anywhere. Italy, Poland and Spain are the key parties on that front, they will steer their own course.

 

As I have said before, it is 27 states (28 minus the UK) that decide (Not Juncker, he is a speaker, a speaker with influence, but a speaker). The UK will have to ensure all of them are satisfied or it is a clean break. Like I said, I don't envy May, she is in a no-win situation, the country with it. Don't get enough, the people moan, ask for too much and the UK can forget access to the single market.

 

I wouldn't put it beyond May (ex-banker anybody?) to make the retain of passporting-rights a non-negotiable at the cost of other factors. Of course that won't hit main-stream press, but it will give the EU the upper-hand in other issues, like freedom of movement. Completing the circle of what I have been saying for ages, leaving the UK to do what it could already have done within the remit of the EU treaties it has now sought to scrap.

 

---------- Post added 12-07-2016 at 17:00 ----------

 

She's looking like a sacrificial lamb to me already, what with the Brexiters-heavy Treasury Select Committee now going after Carney.

 

The UK's plebicide is taking a clearer shape than ever.

 

Yes, noticed that in the FT earlier... odd one that, looks to me like this country needs Carney...

 

---------- Post added 12-07-2016 at 17:01 ----------

 

We are 9 weeks sooner to starting negotiations, than we were yesterday morning. Therefore progress is ahead of schedule.

 

Correct, and very pleased about that at least. May might be in a lose/lose but at least she is competent. Had it been Leadsom it would have ended in tragedy.

[apelike]

Leaving it all until 2017 (as May has suggested) leads to an exit in 2019, probably less than a year before the elections.

 

Maybe she is waiting on any potential changes to the leaders in the EU elections to be held in 2017. Namely the French Presidential Election in April-May 2017, and then the German Federal election in August-October 2017.

 

Maybe its better to negotiate when these are over so that she knows who she will be dealing with.