Gamston Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 I'm slightly concerned with the idea of getting our position clear before Article 50 is triggered. Haven't the EU said there will be no negotiations until it is triggered? It's all well and good for the Government to come up with its plan of attack and hit the button. But the EU could look at us and say, 'errrrr, no.' Merkel has reiterated we cannot just pick and chose the EU bits we like. I think much will be decided directly between the big Governments. It makes sense for the UK to be talking behind the scenes to Germany and French. Then Germany can put pressure on the other EU members to agree to what has already been decided between the big boys and girls of Europe. Mrs Merkel has to be seen to act tough towards the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted July 12, 2016 Author Share Posted July 12, 2016 Maybe she is waiting on any potential changes to the leaders in the EU elections to be held in 2017. Namely the French Presidential Election in April-May 2017, and then the German Federal election in August-October 2017. Maybe its better to negotiate when these are over so that she knows who she will be dealing with. That is a double-edged sword, better the devil you know. May has been in Europe a lot as part of her Home Secretary role, she needs France and Germany to be amenable, the more she can get done with the colleagues she knows, the better. ---------- Post added 12-07-2016 at 17:45 ---------- I think much will be decided directly between the big Governments. It makes sense for the UK to be talking behind the scenes to Germany and French. Then Germany can put pressure on the other EU members to agree to what has already been decided between the big boys and girls of Europe. Mrs Merkel has to be seen to act tough towards the UK. Common misunderstanding Gamston, one that is perpetuated by the UK press. Unlike the UK government, the 27 states (or at least most of them) know fine well how the system works. If Merkel wants to run the course for the Brexit negotiations she will have to give up other bits and pieces elsewhere. Unfortunately for her, she used up all those bits and pieces with the refugee crisis. Merkel isn't the power-broker she was a few years ago any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamston Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Common misunderstanding Gamston, one that is perpetuated by the UK press. Unlike the UK government, the 27 states (or at least most of them) know fine well how the system works. If Merkel wants to run the course for the Brexit negotiations she will have to give up other bits and pieces elsewhere. Unfortunately for her, she used up all those bits and pieces with the refugee crisis. Merkel isn't the power-broker she was a few years ago any more. I agree Mrs Merkel isn't the power-broker she was before the migrant crisis, but Germany are no less powerful as a nation. Germany have the most to lose if they no longer have tariff free trading with the UK. Germany will do what is best for Germany, which is also good for the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Cid Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 I agree Mrs Merkel isn't the power-broker she was before the migrant crisis, but Germany are no less powerful as a nation. Germany have the most to lose if they no longer have tariff free trading with the UK. Germany will do what is best for Germany, which is also good for the UK As I understand, even some of the free trade agreements contain some tariffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tzijlstra Posted July 12, 2016 Author Share Posted July 12, 2016 I agree Mrs Merkel isn't the power-broker she was before the migrant crisis, but Germany are no less powerful as a nation. Germany have the most to lose if they no longer have tariff free trading with the UK. Germany will do what is best for Germany, which is also good for the UK Realpolitik will dictate what the Germans do, and a lot of what the Germans will want is informed by the situation of the 27 EU nations. It is the Dutch (after the British) who have most to lose (according to calculations by the CPB, the Dutch government planning agency) if Britain leaves the single-market. The Germans follow quite closely, but for a lot of the 27 nations in the EU it won't have that much of an impact and might indeed offer opportunities of its own, particular the neighbours East of Germany. The Dutch and Germans on their own aren't going to swing the vote. ---------- Post added 12-07-2016 at 18:38 ---------- As this is the consequence thread - here is a consequence. (Again, one I have spoken about frequently) confirmed. UK Private sector pensions hit record £383.6 Bn shortfall according to the FT, that is up £89 (Eighty-nine!) billion since last month. BHS went under because of a private pension debt of 500 million. Other weakly positioned companies will soon start to follow as they hit insolvency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Equato Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Merkel (and other HoS in the EU) are doing what they have to do, set the table for the negotiation. That is what experienced politicians do, although of course, the most experienced do it behind the scenes and not in the press, that is left to those in trouble (When are the French elections l00b?). The UK doesn't need to pander to Merkel, or Hollande, it needs to win the majority vote in the Parliament and the Council. That means that support from the East and Mediterranean is necessary to get anywhere. Italy, Poland and Spain are the key parties on that front, they will steer their own course. As I have said before, it is 27 states (28 minus the UK) that decide (Not Juncker, he is a speaker, a speaker with influence, but a speaker). The UK will have to ensure all of them are satisfied or it is a clean break. Like I said, I don't envy May, she is in a no-win situation, the country with it. Don't get enough, the people moan, ask for too much and the UK can forget access to the single market. I wouldn't put it beyond May (ex-banker anybody?) to make the retain of passporting-rights a non-negotiable at the cost of other factors. Of course that won't hit main-stream press, but it will give the EU the upper-hand in other issues, like freedom of movement. Completing the circle of what I have been saying for ages, leaving the UK to do what it could already have done within the remit of the EU treaties it has now sought to scrap. ---------- Post added 12-07-2016 at 17:00 ---------- Yes, noticed that in the FT earlier... odd one that, looks to me like this country needs Carney... ---------- Post added 12-07-2016 at 17:01 ---------- Correct, and very pleased about that at least. May might be in a lose/lose but at least she is competent. Had it been Leadsom it would have ended in tragedy. Might it be helpful for her to guarantee the rights of any EU citizen who arrived legally (And don't commit crimes) to stay after any Brexit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apelike Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 (edited) ---------- Post added 12-07-2016 at 18:38 ---------- As this is the consequence thread - here is a consequence. (Again, one I have spoken about frequently) confirmed. UK Private sector pensions hit record £383.6 Bn shortfall according to the FT, that is up £89 (Eighty-nine!) billion since last month. BHS went under because of a private pension debt of 500 million. Other weakly positioned companies will soon start to follow as they hit insolvency. But the private pension industry was already in crisis and this was happening well before the referendum. In March this year there was predicted to be an 800 billion black hole shortfall, which incidentally had almost doubled over the past decade. Granted the Brexit results will add to that but it was already in a very tenuous position so this is hardly a consequence of Brexit. QE and low interest rates are also compounding the problem. Edited July 12, 2016 by apelike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gamston Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Might it be helpful for her to guarantee the rights of any EU citizen who arrived legally (And don't commit crimes) to stay after any Brexit? Surely that issue will play a role in negotiations of BREXIT and it would not be prudent to prematurely offer such an unilateral guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radan Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 (edited) Surely that issue will play a role in negotiations of BREXIT and it would not be prudent to prematurely offer such an unilateral guarantee. Mhmm. I think it would be a sign of good faith to do as Brian says. No-one is getting turfed out and we expect this reciprocated. Edited July 12, 2016 by Radan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apelike Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Mhmm. I think it would be a sign of good faith to do as Brian says. No-one is getting turfed out and we expect this reciprocated. Is it even possible? Doesn't the Vienna Convention or something forbid it? What prevents it is the EU as we are still bound by their laws until we have actually left and that may take 3 years or more yet so she cant promise anything. To change any of it we still need their approval and that may or may not happen even in the Brexit negotiations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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