The consequence thread (Brexit)

[I1L2T3]

Real lesson: nobody on either side can accurately know or guarantee the future.

 

Of course not but the probabilities can be considered and almost every forecast has indicated serious problems on multiple fronts. And those problems are becoming reality.

 

There is evidence that the economy is suffering.

 

We also now know the definitive answer to the issue of whether we can participate in the single market and not have free movement. The answer is we cant. So we now know for sure the Brexit campaign were telling lies.

 

The remain campaign made a shocking mess of things but beyond the campaign there were so many warnings from third parties. So many.

[Magilla]

I think you will find it was the member I responded to that conflated access to the single market and membership of the single market.

 

Apologies for any confusion.

 

Access on anything like the terms we have now will require us being a member of the European Economic Area, which includes the freedom of movement.

 

We can access it and trade within it without being a member of it. We can also trade in the much larger free trade area.

 

My point was that if the “passport” that allows the Citys financial intitutions to operate across the single market is revoked, then those providers will move & thats a serious chunk of GPD gone. That passport comes with membership of the European Economic Area, which includes the freedom of movement.

 

The legal departments of those institutions are keeping busy though:-

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8b14d60-3a36-11e6-9a05-82a9b15a8ee7.html#axzz4FAZ3OOtM

 

---------- Post added 22-07-2016 at 21:25 ----------

 

I can already tell you that the price for maintaining financial passporting rights is freedom of movement. If the UK is lucky.

 

This ^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

---------- Post added 22-07-2016 at 21:32 ----------

 

No we haven't, yet this thread is thousands of doom mongering posts that we're finished, and the talks haven't even started yet (broadly speaking) No difference then.

 

Well there has been some difference:-

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273

 

Whether that continues remains to be seen, but I think it's clear people are going into essentials mode.

Edited July 22, 2016 by Magilla

[NERVY-OWL]

Most mistakes made already were the UK's own (and it is a sea, about 30 KM at it's nearest point!). I am pleased you feel you made the right decision (genuinely) but, and this is the big Kim Kardashian sized but, when things do go wrong (or if, as you will) don't go turning around and be upset. You voted for it, you live with it.

 

In the mean-time, let those who also have to live with it and didn't want it have their say. That is how the table is set now.

 

I'm happy with what i voted for and I won't complain however it turns out. I voted how i did because I felt it would be better for my kids in the long term, I expected a drop in the economy etc in the short term, if it's still the same or worse in the longer term them I'll gladly admit I was wrong how i voted but not yet

[tzijlstra]

I'm happy with what i voted for and I won't complain however it turns out. I voted how i did because I felt it would be better for my kids in the long term, I expected a drop in the economy etc in the short term, if it's still the same or worse in the longer term them I'll gladly admit I was wrong how i voted but not yet

 

And that I fully appreciate. Thanks for stating that.

[*_ash_*]

A report in the Express is quoting the ex Italian PM, who wrote Article 50 itself, as wanting the exit talks to be spun out as long as possible from the EU side in the hope a different party wins the GE in 2020 and can reverse the process before it's too late. He also says he doesn't ever want another EU nation to have a referendum in case the electorate votes to leave the EU.

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/692065/Article-50-NEVER-to-be-used-Europe-Brexit-Italy-Prime-Minister

 

What a prize ****** that bloke is! (not you the bloke )

 

Giuliano Amato, a former Italian Prime Minister, claimed Britain must "lose" when it comes to finances - so they are forced to stay in the single market.

Mr Amato said: “If another leader is as mad as Cameron to offer a referendum on EU membership, for example in Holland or Austria, there is a risk (they would vote to quit)."

 

To show Britain the error of its ways, Mr Amato said the EU had to be "especially tough" in the Brexit talks.

 

He said: ”Don't give Britain the possibility of thinking that Brexit is a better way of doing what they have always done, grabbing what suits them (in the EU) and opting out of what they don't like. Brexit is a total opting out.

 

“They know this very well.

 

I can't work out whether he's a far-left looney or a far-right dictator.

 

He probably knows full well, that when we sort things out, and the markets stabilise, that countries like France, Germany, Spain and probably his Italy could push for a referendum, and they'd all probably vote out too.

 

Well there has been some difference:-

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36864273

 

Whether that continues remains to be seen, but I think it's clear people are going into essentials mode.

 

Almost without doubt. An out vote was always going to cause a period of uncertainty in the markets.

 

-

 

There was a post above about no plan. Well, this really shows how much politics is in a mess right now (brexit or not) - as I've said a few times, there were only 2 options on the paper, and for neither the government nor the opposition () to have any kind of plan, strikes me as pretty careless! (to say the least)

[The Joker]

My insurance covers the cost of putting a roof over the occupants' head while repairs are going on.

 

So to answer my question I asked, where will you live in the meantime ?

 

Elsewhere, obviously.

 

Somewhere like, I don't know, mainland Europe perhaps, in your ridiculous analogy ?

[Jeffrey Shaw]

He probably knows full well, that when we sort things out, and the markets stabilise, that countries like France, Germany, Spain and probably his Italy could push for a referendum, and they'd all probably vote out too.

No. At least 3 of that 4 have their own quasi-Scotland problems (Basques, Catalans, and Northern League for France/Spain, Spain, and Italy respectively). That's why none of them supported a UK Referendum for fear of their own locals doing a Nicola on them.

[hauxwell]

So to answer my question I asked, where will you live in the meantime ?

 

Elsewhere, obviously.

 

Somewhere like, I don't know, mainland Europe perhaps, in your ridiculous analogy ?

 

Yes it is a ridiculous analog and nothing to do with The cosequence thread Brexit.

[L00b]

At a price.

At a price.

 

I can already tell you that the price for maintaining financial passporting rights is freedom of movement. If the UK is lucky.

Correct that, the UK just got very unlucky on the passporting rights issue.

 

Barnier. Oh boy. First dibs on a front row seat for the fireworks show.

[*_ash_*]

link

 

I've heard this 'holidays abroad will be more expensive' a few times.

 

Well I thought, so what? Perhaps it will encourage more people to holiday at home with a fairer competition! Perhaps some 'resorts' could do with some money thrown into them, but all kids need for a good holiday is the beach and a bucket and spade! Happy as pig in **** they are

 

More jobs here, and Ryan Air boss can sod off (who was on QT saying 'we'll put prices up if you vote out') - who is he looking out for if not himself?

 

Domestic tourism expected to rise - BBC News report just now.

 

Not all doom and gloom then.