The consequence thread (Brexit)

[*_ash_*]

Well it's only fair.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37034337

 

You don't have to convince me that we're all doomed... DOOMED!

 

What is the value of the FTSE 250 in $? Ah, right.

 

 

Let's wait until more is known about what exit we get aye?

 

Wait longer? ... So why 3800 posts within about 1 month of it then?

 

Patience!

[tzijlstra]

I get the feeling that you WANT the British economy to fail so you can present cancelling Brexit as the answer to reverse it.

 

Yes, that is exactly what I want. What do I care that our savings are going down the drain and our assets are devaluating. Who cares about silly things like that, right?

 

Ash, have you looked at the value of the Pound?

[kidley]

You don't have to convince me that we're all doomed... DOOMED!

 

DONT PANIC DONT PANIC:help:

 

 

 

[*_ash_*]

Ash, have you looked at the value of the Pound?

 

Without looking at today's rates, I'll swipe at guess at doomed.

[Zamo]

What is the value of the FTSE 250 in $? Ah, right. But yes, the FTSE indeces have been rallying quite well on the back of May's appointment. Let's wait until more is known about what exit we get aye?

 

Now you want to wait and see?

 

Who was it that started this thread just 2hrs 34 mins after the BBC announced we'd voted to leave? Who was already counting the loses (now gains)? Let's remind ourselves...

 

Congratulations for all the Leave voters. Let's hope you get what you want.

 

Because what I didn't want is already happening. The pound crashes to its lowest point since Thatcher, the Nikkei lost 7% in a few hours, the Future options on the European markets point to at least a similar loss just on opening this morning. Who knows where it will end.

 

So let's keep track of the consequences in this thread.

 

Act in haste, repent at leisure! You called it. You said the immediate impact on the markets was evidence that 'what you didn't want is already happening'. Now you are saying we can't use market gains as evidence of what you didn't want not happening?

 

Take your own advice.... sssh now. Wait and see and stop digging!

[El Cid]

Now you want to wait and see?

 

Who was it that started this thread just 2hrs 34 mins after the BBC announced we'd voted to leave? Who was already counting the loses (now gains)? Let's remind ourselves...

 

 

The stock market generally increases around 5% per year, it is now lower than it was in 2015, I call that a loss.

[tzijlstra]

Without looking at today's rates, I'll swipe at guess at doomed.

 

Not quite yet, but heading that way. What was the price for diesel per litre before the referendum? What is it now? Predictable fluctuation based on the value of the pound. Expect to spend another 10p a litre before the start of 2017 at a minimum.

 

Now you want to wait and see?

 

Who was it that started this thread just 2hrs 34 mins after the BBC announced we'd voted to leave? Who was already counting the loses (now gains)? Let's remind ourselves...

 

 

 

Act in haste, repent at leisure! You called it. You said the immediate impact on the markets was evidence that 'what you didn't want is already happening'. Now you are saying we can't use market gains as evidence of what you didn't want not happening?

 

Take your own advice.... sssh now. Wait and see and stop digging!

 

First - the referendum result has had a significant impact. Due to the timing the result of that impact will come out in Q3. Early indicators are that it will be pretty significant. The markets are a marker, not the actual indicators.

 

Second - There is a glimmer of hope for market traders, that the UK will go for an EEA model. Take away that glimmer and they will react negatively, why? Because at that point faith in the British economy will come under real pressure.

 

Third - the BoE has been handing money to the largest traders, they need to put it somewhere, it has gone to shares traded on FTSE as long term government yields on bonds are basically worthless. As a result the UK economy will be subject to far greater volatility, potentially (and likely) damaging investment funds all over the country. If you want to know what had happened if RBS had indeed folded instead of been bailed out, you are in with luck, we might see a big bank fold before the next election.

 

Keep your eyes closed, it is much safer driving that way.

[Zamo]

The stock market generally increases around 5% per year, it is now lower than it was in 2015, I call that a loss.

 

That's the sort of premature doomsday evidence seeking nonsense that is so laughable. The FTSE 100 is more than 5% up on the pre-Brexit position...and that's after just 7 weeks. If it's a loss then it's less of one and that is surely better isn't it?

 

The reality is we cannot yet tell how things are going to pan out and pointing to market fluctuations as evidence of the predicted doom was foolish and is now being rightly ridiculed.

 

---------- Post added 11-08-2016 at 18:28 ----------

 

First - the referendum result has had a significant impact. Due to the timing the result of that impact will come out in Q3. Early indicators are that it will be pretty significant. The markets are a marker, not the actual indicators.

 

Second - There is a glimmer of hope for market traders, that the UK will go for an EEA model. Take away that glimmer and they will react negatively, why? Because at that point faith in the British economy will come under real pressure.

 

Third - the BoE has been handing money to the largest traders, they need to put it somewhere, it has gone to shares traded on FTSE as long term government yields on bonds are basically worthless. As a result the UK economy will be subject to far greater volatility, potentially (and likely) damaging investment funds all over the country. If you want to know what had happened if RBS had indeed folded instead of been bailed out, you are in with luck, we might see a big bank fold before the next election.

 

Keep your eyes closed, it is much safer driving that way.

 

Still not heeding your own advice.

 

Wasn't it you that suggested the FTSE could keep falling to 3,500 or less? For all your sage-like insight you didn't foresee a bounce... let alone a large gain that looks like breaking through the 7,000 mark shortly. You really should stop digging.

[I1L2T3]

I get the feeling that you WANT the British economy to fail so you can present cancelling Brexit as the answer to reverse it.

 

Nobody wants the economy to fail but expect to be eating humble pie. In fact expect a lot of people to be angry with people like you if the wheels come off the economy.

 

Don't get confused between what people want and their right to call you out when things go wrong that people like you promised would not go wrong.

 

---------- Post added 11-08-2016 at 19:13 ----------

 

 

Wasn't it you that suggested the FTSE could keep falling to 3,500 or less? For all your sage-like insight you didn't foresee a bounce... let alone a large gain that looks like breaking through the 7,000 mark shortly. You really should stop digging.

 

Markets are very short-termist. The guarantee from May that article 50 won't be invoked this year provides 4-5 months of stability.

 

Wait until things get going, if they do. I don't think we'll Brexit now to be honest. May has given 6 months-ish for pro-EU interests to rally. People have let off steam and had their protest.

[ez8004]

The odds on Article 50 being triggered is now at its shortest for 2018 or NEVER.

 

The longer this continues the less likely we'll actually leave. Article 50 needs to be triggered now if we were serious about it so negotiations can be concluded before the next EU elections. Article 50 bring triggered with the two year negotiations being within the next round of EU elections will never happen. So 2017 is the absolute latest Article 50 needs to be triggered. However the triggering of Article 50 is expected to be up parliament to vote on in both houses. The House of Lords has already said that they are expected to reject anything the Commons sends to them to delay the exit which can easily delay the process far beyond 2017.