The consequence thread (Brexit)

[LeMaquis]

The odds on Article 50 being triggered is now at its shortest for 2018 or NEVER.

 

The longer this continues the less likely we'll actually leave. Article 50 needs to be triggered now if we were serious about it so negotiations can be concluded before the next EU elections.

 

Who's going to negotiate on our behalf?

 

"The British civil service has no trade negotiators, the former head of the government’s EU unit has confirmed.

 

"The admission makes clear the scale of the challenge facing Whitehall as it prepares to negotiate its exit from the EU, along with a new economic arrangement with the bloc and agreements with non-EU countries.

 

“The trade negotiators who are Brits at the moment are basically working for the EU,” Oliver Letwin told BBC Radio 4. Asked if Britain currently had any negotiators, Mr Letwin, who left the government this week after not being included in Theresa May’s government, replied: “No, no.” "

 

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbbdf998-4a6c-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html#axzz4H3DpLmbg

 

Clearly a well-thought out plan.

[apelike]

Expect to spend another 10p a litre before the start of 2017 at a minimum.

 

I doubt it as too much is already in storage in the EU {the Netherlands} so the prices are possibly set to fall again.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37033621

 

Seems like they are storing it in the hope that demand will rise and output will fall.

 

Having said that the cost of Brent has risen by 4% in the hope of a production cut and nothing at all to do with brexit. The FTSE is also up at 6,900 points the highest for 14 months.

 

---------- Post added 11-08-2016 at 20:20 ----------

 

The odds on Article 50 being triggered is now at its shortest for 2018 or NEVER.

 

A bit like the odds on a leave vote then.

 

However the triggering of Article 50 is expected to be up parliament to vote on in both houses.

 

I very much doubt that.

Edited August 11, 2016 by apelike

[El Cid]

The reality is we cannot yet tell how things are going to pan out and pointing to market fluctuations as evidence of the predicted doom was foolish and is now being rightly ridiculed.

 

Very few thought doom was likely; I bought share a month before the vote, and the day after, in hindsight I should have bought 2 days after.

But my shares are now over 15% up in value, over the long term perhaps the stock market will be lagging behind where it could have been by 1-2%. Perhaps someone can bring back this thread in 2018, the stock market should be at least 10%(+ inflation) above its 2016 level.

[Guest]

Nobody wants the economy to fail but expect to be eating humble pie. In fact expect a lot of people to be angry with people like you if the wheels come off the economy.

 

Don't get confused between what people want and their right to call you out when things go wrong that people like you promised would not go wrong .

 

Anything and everything that "goes wrong" from here on in, will be blamed on Brexit. Brexit will be the new Thatcher for the next 20 years at least.

[crookedspire]

The odds on Article 50 being triggered is now at its shortest for 2018 or NEVER.

 

The longer this continues the less likely we'll actually leave. Article 50 needs to be triggered now if we were serious about it so negotiations can be concluded before the next EU elections. Article 50 bring triggered with the two year negotiations being within the next round of EU elections will never happen. So 2017 is the absolute latest Article 50 needs to be triggered. However the triggering of Article 50 is expected to be up parliament to vote on in both houses. The House of Lords has already said that they are expected to reject anything the Commons sends to them to delay the exit which can easily delay the process far beyond 2017.

This delay and trying to stop Brexit business bothers me more than what the Stock Market ( I do understand it's importance) is doing because if people voted out then it never happens a lot of people might not vote again for anything. Iv heard the arguments about non binding referendum and so on but if nothing happens it could damage the political system in the long term as it is people have lost faith in MPs or worst case situation could lead to civil unrest.

[The Joker]

Anything and everything that "goes wrong" from here on in, will be blamed on Brexit. Brexit will be the new Thatcher for the next 20 years at least.

 

Within days of the referendum vote, the pound fell against the dollar and computer component prices rose by 10%.

 

Now, was the fall in the pound due to Brexit, or was it just a massive, terrible, horrific coincidence?

[ez8004]

I very much doubt that.

 

Remind me which law school you went to and please tell me where it says that you don't need legislation to overturn existing legislation which is what Brexit is.

[tzijlstra]

Anything and everything that "goes wrong" from here on in, will be blamed on Brexit. Brexit will be the new Thatcher for the next 20 years at least.

 

Apelike just explained why the price of fuel, or diesel, shouldn't have risen because stocks are high in the Netherlands. Guess what? fuel prices in the Netherlands did indeed fall.

 

http://www.brandstof-zoeker.nl/station/makro-amsterdam-amsterdam-duivendrecht-8445/#.V6zokIBLOrU

 

Odd that, considering we can't blame the increase on Brexit?

[ez8004]

This delay and trying to stop Brexit business bothers me more than what the Stock Market ( I do understand it's importance) is doing because if people voted out then it never happens a lot of people might not vote again for anything. Iv heard the arguments about non binding referendum and so on but if nothing happens it could damage the political system in the long term as it is people have lost faith in MPs or worst case situation could lead to civil unrest.

 

There have been precedence demonstrated a number of times over the years in other EU countries where such referendum results have been ignored. With this referendum having no legal standing it makes this result ultimately being pointless even more likely.

[I1L2T3]

Anything and everything that "goes wrong" from here on in, will be blamed on Brexit. Brexit will be the new Thatcher for the next 20 years at least.

 

Yes Alan because if we plough on with the crazy Brexit plan almost everything that goes wrong will either be due to Brexit or made much worse by Brexit.

 

For god's sake just wake up and realise the economic damage it will cause.