Santo Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 I think we will leave, and sooner than you think... Well, Mrs May says we won't be triggering 50 this year and the press report it might not happen next year. Do you think negotiations will be concluded within 2 years? When you do you think we will be out out? Not just thinking about it out like now and not teetering on out like we will be when article 50 is enacted. But proper Micky Flanagan out out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anna B Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Well, Mrs May says we won't be triggering 50 this year and the press report it might not happen next year. Do you think negotiations will be concluded within 2 years? When you do you think we will be out out? Not just thinking about it out like now and not teetering on out like we will be when article 50 is enacted. But proper Micky Flanagan out out. I think article 50 will be triggered next year. I think we will be out out before the next election, although there will still be lose ends to tie up, possibly for years to come. I think we will thrive. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santo Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 I think article 50 will be triggered next year. I think we will be out out before the next election, although there will still be lose ends to tie up, possibly for years to come. I think we will thrive. Just my opinion. Ok that makes sense. Next year Article 50, 2 years to leave, out before May 2020 elections. I think the exit process will extend beyond two years personally. Anyone know why it's 2 years? It's as yet untested. Seems arbritary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightrider Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Ok that makes sense. Next year Article 50, 2 years to leave, out before May 2020 elections. I think the exit process will extend beyond two years personally. Anyone know why it's 2 years? It's as yet untested. Seems arbritary. It is what the relevant treaty specifies. You can apply to extend it (after triggering Article50), but I believe all twenty-something EU countries would have to agree to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 It is what the relevant treaty specifies. You can apply to extend it (after triggering Article50), but I believe all twenty-something EU countries would have to agree to do so. I get the distinct impression that this was an article written on the back of a fag-packet without the expectation if it ever being used. In reality, the process will be made up as they go along like it always is, with the words of the treaty used as a vague guide and no more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santo Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 It is what the relevant treaty specifies. You can apply to extend it (after triggering Article50), but I believe all twenty-something EU countries would have to agree to do so. Yes, two years is written in the Lisbon Treaty. But why 2 years? Why not 1 or 3 or 'until such time that arrangements are complete?' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightrider Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 I get the distinct impression that this was an article written on the back of a fag-packet without the expectation if it ever being used. In reality, the process will be made up as they go along like it always is, with the words of the treaty used as a vague guide and no more. Well that would make more sense for everyone to just agree it takes as long as is needed, rather than a rushed deal which causes problems. ---------- Post added 19-08-2016 at 13:48 ---------- Yes, two years is written in the Lisbon Treaty. But why 2 years? Why not 1 or 3 or 'until such time that arrangements are complete?' I agree with other comments suggesting they did not think it through, assuming no-one would ever trigger it. But if they did, I don't know why 2, rather than 1 or 3 or 5! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santo Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 I get the distinct impression that this was an article written on the back of a fag-packet without the expectation if it ever being used. In reality, the process will be made up as they go along like it always is, with the words of the treaty used as a vague guide and no more. More or less what the author has said. After the fact though, he might be exaggerating. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-referendum-britain-theresa-may-article-50-not-supposed-meant-to-be-used-trigger-giuliano-a7156656.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unbeliever Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Well that would make more sense for everyone to just agree it takes as long as is needed, rather than a rushed deal which causes problems. It would be good to agree a provisional schedule. But in reality the 2 years is unlikely to be binding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santo Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 It would be good to agree a provisional schedule. But in reality the 2 years is unlikely to be binding. Did anyone see the programme about the 80s? A bit hit and miss in its theorising for me. Footage of the poll tax riots though (which was the 90s but I think he wanted to conclude with the end of Thatcher). If we don't leave will the riots be worse? What is worse than a riot? So far as I have read (which isn't a massive amount) the early 20th century General Strike had little effect and only lasted a few days. If the Government decide we won't exit can the public realistically do anything? People have talked about it costing MPs their seats at elections. Will it? There is currently no effective opposition in Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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